Greece 2012

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why the Dimar collapse ?

No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

Obviously you don't need my help. You pretty much nailed it.

But the question is, why are they floating back ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why the Dimar collapse ?

No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

Obviously you don't need my help. You pretty much nailed it.

But the question is, why are they floating back ?

For the same reason 90% of Republicans will vote for Romney even though they don't like him.

Considering that the choice isn't PASOK vs ND anymore but rather Brussel's government vs Hard-left alternative vs Hard-right alternative, I really don't see why anyone disappointed by PASOK would consider coming back.

[Antonio the Sixth]

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

Serious stuff aside, a governing coalition gathering paleocommies, random far-lefties, populist right-wingers and literal nazis would be something quite epically hilarious to see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A pity the greens didn't get in.

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A pity the greens didn't get in.

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.

It is, actually. Lowest Greek turnout for legislative elections in modern times. Voting is mandatory in Greece, and although there are no penalties enforced against non-voters, I think that still boosts participation somewhat. Greek turnout has historically been stable at around 80% (even through the 89-89-90 election trio). Over the two decades it's fallen some, usually been around 75%. 2009 was the lowest turnout since the dictatorship at 'only' 71%.

Ah, I see. Well, I still think it could have been worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I don't see why Kouvelis would support such a government unless significant policy changes are agreed upon (which of course, is very unlikely).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU hopefully force the EU to take a different direction, establish EuroBond and real economic solidarity between countries, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 

Corrected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.

The coup has already happened, and the EU has committed it.
But it probably wouldn't be willing to countenance open military involvement.

ag, you got the German government's objective here all wrong. It is to prevent anybody to leave the Euro, under any circumstances - neither voluntarily nor involuntarily - as that would likely destroy it entirely. Which beyond economic uncertainty would also be a gigantic prestige blow.
If that means Greece cannot have an elected government, cannot have any sort of economic recovery, and px will eventually be forced to emigrate to the US in order to escape starvation, then so be it.
They still think they're doing well economically out of this crisis because of teh reforms yaddah yaddah. There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)

I'm sure they will eventually have to face reality at some point. I can't imagine anyone could possibly perseverate in this view in spite of evidence.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.

Hmmm. We'll see soon enough. Do you reckon I should be exchanging my saving from € to $?

Who knows ? It depends a bit on the results of the next greek elections, a bit on the results of the french legislative elections this june, a bit on other european election, and a lot on the temperament of European leaders. I'm pretty sure the next 6 months will be crucial in determining our future...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.

Honestly, it doesn't matter much to me where the problem stems from. The main issue is what has (and has not) been done to solve it since it emerged.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Maturity ?!? Goddamnit, this post is so wrong that it depresses me...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would also point out that, so far, the greatest immaturity and most utter lack of realism has been displayed by European neoliberal leaders, and chiefly Merkel.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that. 

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.   

Considering their "core positions" are completely unrealistic and that their application has directly resulted into the mess we are currently in, I want to believe that, at some point, right-wing leaders will show some pragmatism and admit that their current policies have utterly failed. Being faced by a ballsy government who tells you "now either you help me or may God have mercy of our souls" can be a huge incentive to that. If they are that smart, this is what they should do.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We all want to believe our political opponents will see the light one day and change their wicked ways.

Especially when facing, you know, facts.

To be clear, I'm not sure they will. I'm just willing to take the bet, because this is the only way out which doesn't involve a total wrecking of EU's economy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why isn't TheNationalist/TheNazi banned yet?

Looks like mods are slow on IP checking...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the new elections are scheduled for the same day as the second round of French legislatives, after the previous ones were held on the same day as the second round of the Presidential. It's a conspiracy !

[Antonio the Sixth]

And what happens if these elections fail to produce a government?

New Elections.

European non-government practices are fairly diverse, aren't they?

I'm starting to think the Belgian model is highly preferable...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

Winning friends ? Why would the victim ask its torturer to become friends ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

Winning friends ? Why would the victim ask its torturer to become friends ?

They meant winning friends among the European masses, not the European governments.

Does it matter though ? I guess a third of European public opinion recognizes greeks as victims, a third thinks they're just lazy bastards who would are taking their money away and another third doesn't give a damn. There's not much they can do to change their image.

On the other hand, it is clear that polite requests or desperate supplications haven't convinced the neoliberal clique ruling Europe. Therefore, it's time to try something else, such as blackmailing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio?

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?

Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.

If anything it's Germany that's making itself lose some popularity abroad.

Maybe down south, but up here, I haven't meet anybody with much sympathy for the Greeks, and no it's not "those lazy South European" kind of thing, there are significant sympathy for the Iberians. And before you ask most people I deal with are working class and lower middle class.
Most people understand why the Germans don't want to send money to the bottomless hole which is Greece, even the people who disagree with the austerity policies.

What is happening to Greece is quantitatively, not qualitatively different to what is happening in other South European countries.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course, I don't mean all southern countries have the same strural problems Greece has. But at this point, structural issues internal to countries don't matter anymore. Spain is roughly in the situation Greece was one or two years ago, and Italy might be in the situation Greece was two or three years ago. The problem here does not lie in the inefficiency of the Greek State (even though this is also a problem which ought to be solved, it is not the core issue), it lies in the fact that we have a common currency which isn't backed by a common borrowing system, something which just isn't viable. It lies in the unwillingness of Germany and other "virtuous" countries to "pay for" other countries (even though, at the end of the day, the effects would be positive for these countries as well). This system just cannot work. Therefore, the solutions are two : either the Eurozone disbands, or we finally create these goddamned EuroBonds.

And as a side note, I find it extremely unfair to blame the entire Greek people for the corruption and general inefficiency of their institutions, and making it "pay the price for it".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio,

The Greeks have voted in elections for over 35 years now and been member of EU since early eighties. How on earth are they not responsible for their government, or are there systematic election fraud that I am not aware of.

Even if people do vote for corrupt politicians, and even if a significant share of the population has probably benefitted from or taken part to corruption, it is still absurd to hold people directly responsible for it. These kind of systems, once established (and their establishment itself generally comes from inherent societal factors), create dependences which make them very hard to break up.