Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0
Dem margin in mid-October
Poll '12 '16
FOX -1 8
CBS 2 11
NBC 0 10
ABC 3 4
Monmouth -1 12
FOX -1 8
Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)
ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.
In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.
I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.
