Portuguese General Election

[Leftbehind]

Labour got a shocking result; it just wasn't reflected in their number of seats.

Will we be seeing a Greek-style exodus of the Socialist vote to further-left parties?

[Leftbehind]

The biggest opposition Party, the conservative Social Democrats (PSD) are leading in the polls. They have no other recipe like Portugal could come out of the crisis, but they say now no to the cuts and after the election they make the same or worse.

The last poll I saw was from end of February:

PSD  47.8%
PS  29.1%
PCP  6.1%
B.E.  5.9%
CDS  4.2%

Just seen this. Jesus, the Social Democrats are basically mopping up the votes from everywhere! I suppose if they're pretending to oppose the cuts it's only logical they'd neutralise the Left.

[Leftbehind]

I think the PSD will win, but not with this 47% like in the last poll. The Portuguese People don't think they have a better plan. They will win because many socialists will stay at home and not go to election.

Why don't Socialists vote for the other socialist parties instead?

[Leftbehind]

But it give many who vote for the PS, but never would vote for the Communists (PCP), especially in North Portugal. The B.E. is something like a mix between, in simple words, Trotzkists and Left-Greens. This isn't a mix who all Socialists like.

Even so, voting far-left can be an effective protest vote, without gifting the PSD - their principle opponents - even more of a crushing majority. Voting Communist and Trotskyist doesn't mean Portugal is any danger of becoming that, it just means the Socialists can rely on a few more votes when they want to defeat some objectionable PSD legislature.

[Leftbehind]

Our Social Democrats started off centre-left, but then merged with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats and they're now supporting the Tories' Thatcherism redux. Suppose it makes sense, since they enabled Thatcher her three terms in the first place.

You can't expect that a Catholic pensioner from northern Portugal, which normally votes for the PS now make his cross for the PCP or the B.E.. They stand for something he would never support. If he is not satisfied with the PS, then he stay at home or vote PSD or CDS.

Indeed, I'm just sounding off about the benefits of leftist tactical voting, but if they'd rather PSD or CDS influence than far-leftist, then I suppose it's not particularly useful.

[Leftbehind]

Isn't one of their Socialist parties actually Conservative?

That could apply to any European country in all honesty.  

[Leftbehind]

Let's hope it continues; I find it utterly perverse that the Right should benefit from this.

[Leftbehind]

Why would that be perverse.  The right generally favours less government, which means smaller deficits.  If anything Greece, Portugal, and Ireland could benefit from a right wing government and I see this as someone who is close to the centre in my home country, Canada.  In the early 90s, the Liberals had enough sense to make big spending cuts despite not being a right wing party, but it seems in Europe, electing a right wing party is the only way to get the necessary spending cuts.

It's perverse chiefly because the PSD were benefiting from pretending to be something they were not - opposed to the cuts. If they won a mandate to do these "necessary" cuts, then fair dos, but like the Tories here in the UK, it's looking like they won't.

But also in part because these cuts are down to the failure of neoliberalism - a consensus that the Right formed and we in Europe have followed.

I doubt Labour Party in Britain would have made them.

Which is why I still have some faith in them.

[Leftbehind]

Because - as seemingly hard to believe as it is for you - not everyone's onboard with this wonderful neoliberal train, least of all the European left (well, the voters, in any case) and wants to further roll back their hard fought for achievements? As for the Canadian liberals cutting, it's not really comparable as they're a centrist party and thus don't have to worry too much about alienating a leftist support and their cuts were made in a completely different environment to today's, but it's pretty telling they've been reduced to third party status recently by a social democratic party.

I am not totally up on the nuances of European politics, but I know it is generally it is the right who is for spending cuts, less government, and privatization of inefficient state owned enterprises.  After all it was Margaret Thatcher who did those things in Britain, while the Tories are making cuts in Britain that Labour would never dare make.  I will admit I am more familiar with British politics than that of other European countries.

...and she got the worst opinion poll ratings - until Brown amidst the financial collapse - for her troubles, and a legacy where people will be joyous upon hearing of her death. I'm sure its news to you we weren't cheering her on for it?

[Leftbehind]

Doesn't the combined right vote exceed 50% in a large number of European countries and 40% in pretty much every country which suggests to me many in Europe do support the idea of lower taxes and less government.  Yes the nosiest oppose it much like here in Canada. We don't have a tea party movement like the US does and neither does Europe, although they do have a lot of racist/nationalist movements which are pretty vocal in some countries.

 
Does it? You tell me. The racist/nationalist parties tend not to be neoliberals, for instance. Recently a bunch of free-market fanatics tried to hold a tea-party-esque rally here in counter to the half-a-million opposition protest recently and received a humiliatingly low turnout.

Never mind a large chunk of state owned enterprises have been privatized and yet the governments who do it are re-elected.  I believe airlines, telecommunications, electricity, airports, and ferry service are mostly private in Europe whereas here in Canada electricity is still largely public, although it varies from province to province.  Even water privatization and health care privatization is far more rampant in Europe than Canada and in the case of the former even more so than the US.  In fact railways and the postal service seem to be the only state owned enterprises that haven't been privatized and even that is changing.  Also most European countries have a lower corporate tax rate than the US.  Sure one can blame the EU for pushing the neoliberal agenda, but based on voting patterns it seems either most Europeans support it or are indifferent to it.

I'd say Britain's the worst for that, and based off our voting patterns - Tory > New Labour > Tory-Liberal Coalition, you'd presume things which aren't actually the case. From the polling I've seen large majorities want to keep our remaining utilities in public ownership, and re-nationalise things that've been privatised (I can find you the polls if you're interested?), but the choice isn't there to effectively render in our vote as neoliberalism has gained ascendency as the model and is supported on a cross-party basis, so you're left to vote on the choices you're given.

[Leftbehind]

Evidently not. The privatisations ahead - Royal Mail, NHS - are unpopular and yet they're still going ahead. The past privatisations were unpopular and remain so today and yet neither of the main two are bothered rethinking them. I think there's an element of naivety on your part about our politics; parties here routinely ignore the public's views - even when they're overwhelming (tuition fees?).

Of course there are minor parties promising to act on these, but FPTP ensures no-one dares vote for them.