State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Someone, please tell me that what just happened on the election results page was just a glitch and that 17, 102, AND 107 didn't all just dump together.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Holy Christ, that sucks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

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So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate tonight?

Unfortunately, no.

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AD-5 63-37 60-36 +2 GOP SWING
AD-10 59-41 52-45 +11 DEM SWING
AD-17 63-36 58-39 +10 GOP SWING
AD-39 UNCONTESTED
AD-74 90-5 85-11 +11 DEM SWING
AD-80 81-18 82-16 +3 GOP SWING
AD-102 46-44 59-36 +21 DEM SWING
AD-107 52-48 49-45 NO SWING
AD-142 53-47 51-45 NO SWING
SD-32 89-2 93-5 +1 GOP SWING
SD-37 58-42 59-38 +5 GOP SWING

Average Dem Swing tonight of 5 points. Blue wave? That's your call.

G. Elliott Morris said it doesn't affect the national average. Plus, New York is already a reliable Blue state, where we should be able to pick up at least 2 seats in November.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Those Election Day turnout numbers are good for the Dems, especially in states like Pennsylvania that don’t have early voting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NPAs historically lean Dem btw

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Blue Wave dead y’all

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

Limo never fails to make everyone laugh

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Marc Caputo says Election Day numbers indicate Fernandez won

https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/991458417993834496?s=21

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Like I have said earlier: the Dems beat the GOP in Election Day voting by 13%. That’s great for the Democrats in states that don’t hold early voting like Pennsylvania.

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Early voting now in
Vargas(R) 49.69% 6450
Fernandez(D) 47.59% 6178

Wow. Fernandez is winning this race... if I’m reading that correctly. That’s not Election Day, right?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Early voting now in
Vargas(R) 49.69% 6450
Fernandez(D) 47.59% 6178

Wow. Fernandez is winning... if I’m reading that correctly. That’s not Election Day, right?

Yes, that is in-person early voting + absentee voting.

This electorate was 46% GOP, 37% Dem, 17% NPA

Wow, so the Dem won the lion’s share of independents.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Vargas doesn't win, I'll quit Atlas for a week. He's going to win. Not concern-trolling, but Fernandez can't make that deficit up.

And, no, the blue wave is still on. This is just Cuban Republicans being Cuban Republicans.

Finally, why does Osceola only have 4% turnout? Is that a typo?

Dude, Vargas won the early vote by only 300, the Dems outpaced the GOP in Election Day voting by 13%. If you’re right, then props to you! But I wouldn’t count on it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Early voting now in
Vargas(R) 49.69% 6450
Fernandez(D) 47.59% 6178

Wow. Fernandez is winning... if I’m reading that correctly. That’s not Election Day, right?

Yes, that is in-person early voting + absentee voting.

This electorate was 46% GOP, 37% Dem, 17% NPA

Wow, so the Dem won the lion’s share of independents.

Probably some of the GOP as well, like we have seen in the past in areas where GOP registration outpaces clinton vote.

The midterms are looking REALLY great.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fernandez (D) winning by 4 points now.

Enjoy your vaca, Andrew!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

These Cuban districts are still strongly Republican downballot. These wins by Democrats are nothing to sneeze at.

I didn't mention anything about the Cubans. I was talking about the turnout figures and independents.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fernandez was endorsed by Joe Biden a few days ago. In the Trump era, Joe's something like 16 to 1 now

The Democrats may want to consider utilizing him in a few of the swing districts, especially in Pennsylvania.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I sent a message to LimoLiberal asking him to come on here and make a concession speech, but he doesn't appear to be responding.

I love you.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Interesting, he underperformed Clinton but still expanded the map.

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https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/991522846592643077

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Remarks from @ScottPresler:

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Lol, so NOW that moron cares about margins? He called the AZ-08 a “massive blow” to the Democrats and brushed off PA-18 simply because Lamb won by only 700 votes. The idiocy of that guy is infuriating.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes