Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess we are going to see a split between the city FPÖ and the rural FPÖ.

conservative fpö voters ofc like tax cuts and bla - but the new fpö voters in styria and vienna are not going to approve those and are part of the citizens who are most in need of social welfare.

[Tender Branson]

DerStandard.at and "Market" recently polled Austrians on a number of statements and asked voters if they think this statement is true or fake:



green = true
red = fake

* Nazis murdered 6 million Jews etc.
* All humans have the right to a fair/equal/just/humane treatment
* in 1969 and afterwards, humans landed on the moon
* climate change is caused by humans
* Austrian schools teach the truth about historic events
* biological products are better and healthier than normal products
* elections in Austria are conducted free, fair and without manipulations
* pot is dangerous and unhealthy
* the 9/11 terror attacks were committed by al-Qaida
* JFK was killed by a lone attacker (Oswald)
* there's a higher being, a God
* truth and justice always prevails in court
* world politics is dominated by secret societies
* elections in the US are conducted free, fair and without manipulations
* Diesel gas emmissions are published correctly by most car makers
* the numbers released during the 2015/16 migrant inflow were correct
* in Area 51, there are signs of alien life
* at times, aliens in UFOs are landing on earth
* elections in Russia are conducted free, fair and without manipulations
* Earth is a flat disc

[rob in cal]

  I could see how some in the FPO would take a pro Paris accord position.  In terms of overall environmental impact immigration into modern first world economies helps grow those economies even more, with more building, more people in general, more fossil fuel use etc. So a FPO supporter could follow through on their low immigration idea with its counterpart of supporting the environmental benefits of low immigration on the environment as well.

[Sozialliberal]

* biological products are better and healthier than normal products

Is that a way of saying organic products, or something else?

Yes, organic products are called "biologische Produkte" (or more commonly: "Bio-Produkte") in German.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern in Moscow:



Meanwhile, Kurz presented his massive tax cut and savings plans (see previous page).

And Strache is switching back to fully attacking radical Islam and Islamic terrorism - because other topics didn't stick for him ...

[mvd10]

14 billion? That's more than the VVD promised here (even in raw euros) while you'd expect the VVD to be more pro-tax cut than a Christian democratic party, Dutch GDP is higher than Austrian GDP and we were projected to have a 11 billion surplus while Austria has a budget deficit. This would require massive spending cuts and the budget still wouldn't be balanced (unless you cut spending even more). Now, I would love it (isn't Austrian spending pretty high, even by European standards?) but it would require massive spending cuts which aren't going to be popular.

Kern should attack him over this, tax cuts are popular but once voters realise where the money is going to come from they quickly become less popular. I'm not sure whether this is a smart move by Kurz, but atleast he isn't shifting to the centre on economic issues like other Christian democratic leaders. Kurz would be the best world leader since forever if he is elected

[Tender Branson]

14 billion? That's more than the VVD promised here (even in raw euros) while you'd expect the VVD to be more pro-tax cut than a Christian democratic party, Dutch GDP is higher than Austrian GDP and we were projected to have a 11 billion surplus while Austria has a budget deficit. This would require massive spending cuts and the budget still wouldn't be balanced (unless you cut spending even more). Now, I would love it (isn't Austrian spending pretty high, even by European standards?) but it would require massive spending cuts which aren't going to be popular.

Kern should attack him over this, tax cuts are popular but once voters realise where the money is going to come from they quickly become less popular. I'm not sure whether this is a smart move by Kurz, but atleast he isn't shifting to the centre on economic issues like other Christian democratic leaders. Kurz would be the best world leader since forever if he is elected

The SPÖ definitely will.

Probably not as hard as shown on these Socialist posters from the early 1930s attacking the Christian Socials - or in the 1950s, but Kern and Co. will still point to the fact that for a tax cut of 14 Bio. € per year Kurz will need to cut pensions, retirement care, health care, unemployment money ... all of this impacting Austrians ... or introduce something like ER fees or additional out-of-pocket health payments.



"They want to steal the aid of 70.000 unemployed ! Vote Social Democratic !"



"Hardship and misery reigns where the ÖVP dictates. Defend yourself ! Vote Social Democratic !"



"Defend yourself against the pension robbery - vote Social Democratic !"

[Tender Branson]

On Facebook, Strache (FPÖ) opposes Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris agreement - saying we need to look after our environment and reduce CO2 emissions.

https://de-de.facebook.com/HCStrache/posts/10155000357233591

[Tender Branson]

The new Green leader Ingrid Felipe said in an interview today that a possible coalition with the ÖVP would be ok for her. But only if the controversial Interior Minister Sobotka is not on the ÖVP's list for the election anymore. She was pointing to the 3 ÖVP-Green governments in Western Austria, where she herself is part of one - as Vice-Governor in Tyrol.

The Greens also call for a stop of deportations to Kabul, Afghanistan - which I find totally ridiculous. IMO, the number of deportations should be doubled or tripled, not halted.

She's also opposed to the full-face veil ban (Burqas, Niqabs) in public which will start on October 1, with people who wear them being fined at least 150€.

And she said the Greens are the only ones opposed to a right-wing populist government participation, strongly attacking the FPÖ in the coming campaign. Felipe also had tough words for Trump on leaving the Paris agreement.

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5229671/NoGo-der-Gruenen-fuer-Zusammenarbeit-mit-OeVP-heisst-Sobotka

[Tender Branson]

So, how does an Austrian ballot look like for the parliamentary election ?

Here is one from 2013, for electoral district 6A (Graz and suburbs):



On top you have the list number, ranked by the previous election result of that list and if the party is already represented in parliament or not. If the party did not run before, the time of handing in the signatures determines the ballot ranking.

Below the party names and circles for voting are 2 blank rows where you can write-in a preference vote for a candidate on the federal party list and state party list.

At the bottom you can cast a preference vote for a candidate on the local district list.

The more preference votes local, state or federal candidates get the higher their chances they will be moved up the list.

Also: If for example you fail to check the circle below a party with an [X], but write in let's say "Kern", your vote will count as a party vote for the SPÖ. The same if you just check the candidate name on the local list.

But if for example you vote for the FPÖ and write-in or check a name for SPÖ, your vote will only count for the FPÖ while the preference votes are invalid.

[Tender Branson]

This is how I'd rate the coalition chances right now after the election:

65% ÖVP-FPÖ
20% SPÖ-FPÖ (or FPÖ-SPÖ)
10% ÖVP-Greens-NEOS
  5% ÖVP-SPÖ

ÖVP-FPÖ have simply too much in common (tax cuts, balanced budget, lowering debt, less bureaucracy for companies, stripping welfare payments to foreigners, etc.) and after the election will point to Upper Austria, where ÖVP and FPÖ already are in a coalition.

VdB will have to swear ÖVP-FPÖ in with grinding teeth ...

[Tender Branson]

Kurz sent a video-message to the AJC meeting in Washington:

   

https://twitter.com/AJCGlobal/status/871735609160855553

[Tender Branson]

Kurz started his weeks-long "Austria Tour" today at a carpentry in Lower Austria, where he'll talk with workers and business owners about his and their ideas, which will then become part of the ÖVP election platform (out in early September):





Kurz is taking it directly to the people ... This visit is primarily about business conditions, taxes, bureaucracy and work conditions of the employees.

Next stops will be talks about social and welfare issues in Vienna and about tourism in Salzburg.

[peterthlee]

This is how I'd rate the coalition chances right now after the election:

65% ÖVP-FPÖ
20% SPÖ-FPÖ (or FPÖ-SPÖ)
10% ÖVP-Greens-NEOS
  5% ÖVP-SPÖ

ÖVP-FPÖ have simply too much in common (tax cuts, balanced budget, lowering debt, less bureaucracy for companies, stripping welfare payments to foreigners, etc.) and after the election will point to Upper Austria, where ÖVP and FPÖ already are in a coalition.

VdB will have to swear ÖVP-FPÖ in with grinding teeth ...

What if Van der Bellen orders that no freedom party members be allowed in the cabinet?

[Tender Branson]

This is how I'd rate the coalition chances right now after the election:

65% ÖVP-FPÖ
20% SPÖ-FPÖ (or FPÖ-SPÖ)
10% ÖVP-Greens-NEOS
  5% ÖVP-SPÖ

ÖVP-FPÖ have simply too much in common (tax cuts, balanced budget, lowering debt, less bureaucracy for companies, stripping welfare payments to foreigners, etc.) and after the election will point to Upper Austria, where ÖVP and FPÖ already are in a coalition.

VdB will have to swear ÖVP-FPÖ in with grinding teeth ...

What if Van der Bellen orders that no freedom party members be allowed in the cabinet?

It's possible, but I guess this won't happen. VdB has recently hinted he could swear in a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't ignore the wishes of 3 million voters (= the 60% who will likely vote for either ÖVP or FPÖ) and swear this thing in.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, do you think a OVP-FPO coalition would have a specific migrant quota target? If so it would have to be pretty low, for the FPO to show its voters that going into coalition had accomplished something on the issue.

[Tender Branson]

 Tender, do you think a OVP-FPO coalition would have a specific migrant quota target? If so it would have to be pretty low, for the FPO to show its voters that going into coalition had accomplished something on the issue.

A very low one for asylum seekers (maybe 3.000 per year) and a shift towards a Canadian-style system for high-skilled immigrants. Other than those immigrants from the EU, Austria currently attracts primarily low-skilled immigrants from outside the EU.

[ApatheticAustrian]

 Tender, do you think a OVP-FPO coalition would have a specific migrant quota target? If so it would have to be pretty low, for the FPO to show its voters that going into coalition had accomplished something on the issue.

A very low one for asylum seekers (maybe 3.000 per year) and a shift towards a Canadian-style system for high-skilled immigrants. Other than those immigrants from the EU, Austria currently attracts primarily low-skilled immigrants from outside the EU.

you think the FPÖ would support an immigration system which gives high-skilled people a good chance to escape the austrian system of bureaucratic mobbing?

would surely surprise me.

[Tender Branson]

 Tender, do you think a OVP-FPO coalition would have a specific migrant quota target? If so it would have to be pretty low, for the FPO to show its voters that going into coalition had accomplished something on the issue.

A very low one for asylum seekers (maybe 3.000 per year) and a shift towards a Canadian-style system for high-skilled immigrants. Other than those immigrants from the EU, Austria currently attracts primarily low-skilled immigrants from outside the EU.

you think the FPÖ would support an immigration system which gives high-skilled people a good chance to escape the austrian system of bureaucratic mobbing?

would surely surprise me.

Well, yeah.

They will have to agree to something in a coalition contract if they want to become part of the government as a junior partner (either with the ÖVP or SPÖ). And that means a low quota for asylum seekers and at the same time skilled workers only (which is something the Kurz-ÖVP strongly favours).

[Tender Branson]

A (physical) fight broke out yesterday between Chancellor Kern's associates ... and some SPÖ party associates:

https://www.news.at/a/spoe-hitzige-debatten-rempelei-8181280

The background was a dispute in how to organize Kern's and the SPÖ's election campaign. Kern's people have taken the lead in this, but the party people want more influence on the campaign strategy.

Very bad optics for Kern and SPÖ.

Kurz's recent campaigning has a lot more effort and the party seems to be fully behind him - even though he remains really vague on the issues.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ-people have fully postered the city and surroundings (and I guess all of Austria) overnight at virtually every bus stop and in front of shopping centers etc., using this new poster of Strache:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5650520#msg5650520

I have seen some 30 big posters today.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Strache underperforms would he be replaced with Hofer?

[Tender Branson]

If Strache underperforms would he be replaced with Hofer?

Nobody knows ...

Everything is possible => remember that Austria usually votes 60% Center-Right.

Strache getting 30%, just like the ÖVP.

Strache getting 25%, and the ÖVP 35%.

Strache getting 20% and the ÖVP 40%.

Plus/minus a few points.

But yeah, Strache has his work cut out - because Kurz is heavily eating into his electorate.

[Tender Branson]

Austria to spend 2.7 Bio. € on asylum seekers next year.

That's actually an increase compared with this year, despite falling asylum seeker numbers (2015: 100.000 asylum seekers, 2016: 50.000, 2017: 35.000, projected).

The reason for the higher costs are:

* higher welfare payments, because more people are eligible
* higher unemployment money payments, because more people are eligible now
* higher payments because of family reunions
* higher payments for language, skills courses and other integration measures
* higher housing costs
* higher bureaucratic costs
* higher family/child allowances

...

In US terms, that would be 120 Bio. $ annually in asylum seeker costs.

http://derstandard.at/2000058865225/Fluechtlingskosten-steigen-auf-2-7-Milliarden-Euro-im-naechsten-Jahr

[Tender Branson]

All 300 Austrian imams to sign a common declaration next week in Vienna against Muslim extremism and terrorism:

https://derstandard.at/2000058848729/Oesterreichs-Imame-unterzeichnen-Deklaration

Good.

The Muslim communities need to do a lot more in weeding out their radical elements within.