Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (Change from 10/6) Clinton +7.8
Clinton            44.6% (+2.3%)
Trump             36.8%  (-1.7%)
Other                8.6%  (-1.1%)
Refused             6.4%  (+0.1%)  
Would Not Vote  3.6%  (+0.5%)

2,539 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

4-way (change from 10/6) Clinton +7.2
Clinton                       44.3% (+2.7%)
Trump                        37.1% (-0.6%)
Johnson                      5.9%   (-2.6%)
Stein                          2.1%   (+0.2%)
Don't Know/Refused      5.8%   (-0.2%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.5%   (+1.0%)

2,359 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

Word of caution here, more than 1/2 of the poll is from 10/10 only (a double-debate poll).

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day

First tracked poll for this thread
2-way Clinton +7.3%
Clinton                       42.1%
Trump                        34.8%
Other                          11.8%
Don’t Know/Refused     8.0%
Wouldn’t Vote              3.8%

1,154 LV (August 4-8, 2016)

4-way Clinton +6.2%
Clinton                       40.5%
Trump                        34.3%
Johnson                      7.7%
Stein                           2.2%
Don’t Know/Refused     8.3%
Other                          4.3%
Wouldn’t Vote              2.7%

1,154 LV (August 4-8, 2016)

[Seriously?]

2-way (% change from 8/8) Clinton +5.6%
Clinton            41.2% (-0.9%)
Trump             35.6% (+0.8%)
Other              10.6% (-0.7%)
Refused           8.7% (+0.7%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.9% (+0.1%)

1,116 LV (August 7-11, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/8) Clinton +5.2%
Clinton                       40.5% (--%)
Trump                        35.3% (+1.0%)
Johnson                      7.2% (-0.5%)
Stein                           2.5% (+0.3%)
Don’t Know/Refused     8.1% (-0.2%)
Other                          3.4% (-0.8%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.1% (+0.4%)

1,115 LV (August 7-11, 2016)

Note: Rounding 40.5 to 41 and 35.3% down to 35 creates a the +6 4-way margin, margin in 4-way is 5.2% with decimals.

Likewise, rounding 41.2 down to 41 and rounding 35.6 up to 36 creates +5 in 2-way, even though margin is 5.6% with decimals.

[Seriously?]

8/15 release. Clinton up slightly from 8/11 release.

2-way (% change from 8/11) Clinton +6.2%
Clinton            41.4% (+0.2%)
Trump             35.2% (-0.4%)
Other              10.7% (--%)
Refused           8.2% (-0.5%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.6% (+0.7%)

1,132 LV (August 10-15, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/11) Clinton +6.0%
Clinton                       40.4% (-0.1%)
Trump                        34.4% (-0.9%)
Johnson                      8.1% (+0.9%)
Stein                           2.2% (-0.3%)
Don’t Know/Refused     7.7% (-0.4%)
Other                          3.2% (-0.2%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4.1% (+1.0%)

1,132 LV (August 10-15, 2016)

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (% change from 8/15) Clinton +5%
Clinton            41% (--%)
Trump             36% (+1%)
Other              10% (-1%)
Refused           9% (+1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4% (--%)

1,049 LV (August 12-17, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/15) Clinton +4%
Clinton                       39% (-1%)
Trump                        35% (+1%)
Johnson                      9% (+1%)
Stein                           3% (+1%)
Don’t Know/Refused      8% (--%)
Other                          4% (+1%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4% (--%)

1,049 LV (August 12-17, 2016)

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.17_.16_.pdf

Note: Polling Explorer has not been updated yet. I don't have the decimal track, I will change once those numbers are available.

[Seriously?]

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.

There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

[Seriously?]

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.

There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

Its funny seeing you cling to the junk daily tracking polls most of us have written off.

LV is quite likely to help Clinton on net, as even Quinnipiac has shown.

Except when the data is reduced to practice and the opposite is true. See Reuters.

[Seriously?]

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.

There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

Its funny seeing you cling to the junk daily tracking polls most of us have written off.

LV is quite likely to help Clinton on net, as even Quinnipiac has shown.

Except when the data is reduced to practice and the opposite is true. See Reuters.

Another junk tracking poll.

And empirical evidence that every LV poll is to the right of RV polls from every pollster.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (% change from 8/17) Clinton +8.1%
Clinton            42.3% (+1.2%)
Trump             34.2% (-1.8%)
Other              9.1% (-0.5%)
Refused           10.1% (+1.1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4.2% (-0.1%)

1,119 LV (August 13-18, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/17) Clinton +7.0%
Clinton                       40.6% (+1.1%)
Trump                        33.6% (-1.8%)
Johnson                      7.1% (+0.1%)
Stein                           2.1% (+--%)
Don’t Know/Refused      9.9% (+1.5%)
Other                          3.4% (-0.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.2% (-0.5%)

1,118 LV (August 13-18, 2016)

It's a significant increase from the 8/17 polling in Hillary's favor.

[Seriously?]

Weird, I was told that a Clinton +8 lead was a huge outlier that only Democratic hack polling firms would come up with........

You're confusing the 2-way numbers with the 4-way numbers, but I digress. And yes, it was a partisan poll.

[Seriously?]

Glorious poll.

Seriously is making krazey proud with his furious unskewing.

Point me to where I unskewed a thing about this poll? I haven't commented on the numbers at all.

I apologize if I can't take a DEMOCRAT internal poll seriously, however.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (% change from 8/18) Clinton +12.0%
Clinton            44.8% (+2.5%)
Trump             32.8% (-1.4%)
Other              8.1% (-1.0%)
Refused           10.9% (+1.8%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.4% (-0.8%)

1,115 LV (August 18-22, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/18) Clinton +8.2%
Clinton                       41.4% (+0.8%)
Trump                        33.2% (-0.4%)
Johnson                      6.9% (-0.2%)
Stein                           2.3% (+0.2%)
Don’t Know/Refused    10.8% (+0.8%)
Other                          2.9% (-0.5%)
Wouldn’t Vote              2.6% (-0.6%)

1,115 LV (August 18-22, 2016)

[Seriously?]

RV is now to the right of LV again. Roughly Hillary +2 in the 2-way, a marginal Hillary +0.2 in the 4-way.

Odd poll to say the least. Hillary basically gained 6 points since 8/19.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +7%
Clinton            42% (-3%)
Trump             35% (+2%)
Other              9% (+1%)
Refused           9% (-2%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4% (+1%)

1,049 LV (August 20-24, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +3%
Clinton                       39% (-2%)
Trump                        36% (+3%)
Johnson                      7% (--%)
Stein                           3% (+1%)
Don’t Know/Refused    8% (-3%)
Other                          3% (--%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4% (+1%)

1,049 LV (August 20-24, 2016)

Note: Polling Explorer not updated. Don't have decimal track
Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.24_.16_.pdf

[Seriously?]

Rewters

Yup. Bouncing around like a yo-yo. Putting out releases and not updating the underlying poll... Just wait until tomorrow when the most pro-Hillary day (8/20) rolls off.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +5.3%
Clinton            41.4% (-3.8%)
Trump             36.1% (+3.3%)
Other              8.6% (-0.5%)
Refused           8.6% (-2.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote  5.4% (+2.0%)

1,154 LV (August 21-25, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +2.9%
Clinton                       39.3% (-2.1%)
Trump                        36.4% (+3.2%)
Johnson                      6.5% (-0.4%)
Stein                          2.8% (+0.5%)
Don’t Know/Refused    8.3% (-2.5%)
Other                          2.3% (-0.6%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4.4% (+1.8%)

1,154 LV (August 21-25, 2016)

*Note: 8/22 numbers used for comparison instead of 8/24 because 8/22 was last decimal track release.

[Seriously?]

Obama won with 3.5 million votes and won in a landslide. Trump is performing at Romney levels.

I wouldn't call a 4% win a landslide.

The Obama 2008 numbers were closer to a landslide vs. McCain at ~7%.

[Seriously?]

They were awful in the primaries, they are awful now. ALL DAILY TRACKERS ARE AWFUL.

No, you're wrong!

Am I? Which daily tracker is any good?

I honestly could not tell you what's right and what's wrong at this point until we have a lot more LV polls from the companies that conduct primarily live interview calls.

As of right now, these internet poll/daily trackers with either panels or groups of voters are all LV and seem to favor Trump the most. The primarily internet polls over a few day span come next, then the traditional telephone polls.

We'll get a better idea of possible methodological bias once the telephone polls start employing LV screens.

Honestly though, at the end of the day, I do think the Hillary lead will be around 3-points in the 4-way and 5-points in the 2-way when the LV screen is employed and the variance among most non-outlier polls will be narrower.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (% change from 8/25) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton            39.7% (-1.7%)
Trump             39.1% (+3.0%)
Other              8.8% (+0.2%)
Refused           7.5% (-1.1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4.9% (-0.5%)

1,397 LV (August 25-29, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/25) Clinton +1.5%
Clinton                       39.5% (-0.3%)
Trump                        38.0% (+1.6%)
Johnson                      5.7% (-0.8%)
Stein                          2.1% (-0.7%)
Don’t Know/Refused    7.3% (-1.0%)
Other                          3.6% (+1.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.8% (-0.6%)

1,400 LV (August 25-29, 2016)

[Seriously?]

I don't understand how a "likely voter", who first answers that he's likely to vote, then says "wouldn't vote" in the GE question ...

I don't either. Those respondents should be thrown in the trash for that question. How can they get past a LV screen if they don't intend to vote?

[Seriously?]

Oh Reuters, showing a poll through 9/4 right now with 171 respondents with Clinton +12 in the two-way and +11 in the 4-way...

Holding before posting because, well, it's not 9/4.

[Seriously?]

Oh Reuters, showing a poll through 9/4 right now with 171 respondents with Clinton +12 in the two-way and +11 in the 4-way...

Holding before posting because, well, it's not 9/4.

Are you maybe starting to understand why the rest of us don't trust Reuters?

I understand why you don't trust Reuters. A data point is a data point. I am merely posting them without comment, generally.

[Seriously?]

Oh Reuters, showing a poll through 9/4 right now with 171 respondents with Clinton +12 in the two-way and +11 in the 4-way...

Holding before posting because, well, it's not 9/4.

Link?

They've since modified the Polling Explorer website and took it off and on intermittently. you may or may not catch it.

2-way
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160801-20160930/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

4-way
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160801-20160901/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[Seriously?]

Oh Reuters, showing a poll through 9/4 right now with 171 respondents with Clinton +12 in the two-way and +11 in the 4-way...

Holding before posting because, well, it's not 9/4.

Link?

They've since modified the Polling Explorer website and took it off and on intermittently. you may or may not catch it.

2-way
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160801-20160930/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

4-way
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160801-20160901/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

But it is just weekly view. Aug 29 - Sep 4. But they've probably only realised for one day (29). Nothing strange IMHO.

Probably another methological change. They got rid of the daily data points. We'll see what happens when they get it right.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (% change from 8/29) Trump +1%
Trump             40% (+1.0%)
Clinton            39% (-1.0%)

1,804 LV (August 26-September 1, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/29) TIED
Clinton                       39% (-1%)
Trump                        39% (+1%)
Johnson                      7% (+1%)
Stein                          2% (--%)

1,804 LV (August 26-September 1, 2016)

Seems like a methodological change from 5-day to 7-day rolling average.

*-Don't know, refused and other not disclosed.
Polling Explorer not updated.

Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-catches-clinton-latest-reuters-ipsos-poll-finds-215514755.html?ref=gs

[Seriously?]

How do you change methodologies in the poll like 9 times in a summer?

You're Reuters or they delegated the writeup to an intern at the start of a holiday weekend. Your pick.