MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Figueira]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

WHICH IS SOMETHING REPUBLICANS DO ANYWAYS. They've already cut attack ads that portray Quist as a pawn of Pelosi.

It's because it doesn't fit their narrative. They want to win in GA-6 with Ossoff because it'll show that their "trade a blue collar vote for a white suburban vote" strategy was actually right all along, and having a populist win wouldn't contribute anything to that.

That wouod be a dumb strategy if their goal is to win.

[Figueira]

Local papers are now reporting Quist under-reported his income.

Stick a fork in him, boys, he's done.

Ugh. That seems hard to recover from.

[Figueira]

The "Wichita had a much bigger anti-Trump backlash than the rest of the district" thing is basically a myth.

Um, how so?

The election results are what they are. And Thompson over-performed in Wichita and under-performed in the rural areas compared to historical Democratic performance.

Compared to Clinton, he overperformed everywhere, and he overperformed in Sedgwick County exactly as much as in the rest of the district.

Of course, it's probably different if we compared him to Pompeo's 2016 opponent (anyone have county data for that race?) but we were talking about the "anti-Trump backlash."

[Figueira]

TNV, what events do you think could allow Quist to win, or conversely expand Gianforte's margin of victory? You seem rather bearish on anything having an effect.

[Figueira]

Can't twist the Quist, can't toss off the Ossoff.

[Figueira]

Yeah, seems like Pianoforte is currently ahead, but it's still conceivable (though not likely) that Cowboy Poet could pull ahead by the end of the month. Maybe Lean R would be the best rating for this.

[Figueira]

I don't see how the rental thing is a campaign-ending scandal.

[Figueira]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

Montana is a swing state for non-presidential races.

And Quist does have a lot of appeal in Montana despite having some flaws.

[Figueira]

I clicked on the last page of the thread and saw Wulfric's comment, and thought that maybe Quist had eaten a live baby or something.

[Figueira]

I'll probably keep calling this Lean R right up until the election. Gianforte is clearly favored, but I don't think we have enough data to count Quist out. Maybe if one or two respectable pollsters poll the race in the next ten days, we'll have a better idea.

[Figueira]

Is anyone seriously surprised that a Montanan folk singer born in 1948 has smoked marijuana?

[Figueira]

Could it be that they're more worried about Montana just because the Montana race is sooner and therefore a more immediate concern?

[Figueira]

Gianforte on donating to suspected white nationalist: 'I was unaware of some of his views'
Missoulian/JAYME FRASER

This story is in the Montana media today.  Apparently, Gianforte donated money to all Republican state house candidates last cycle, including one or two who the Southern Poverty Law Center and liberal Montana bloggers think are white nationalists. 

My views on the SPLC are fairly well known -for reasons better explained by this recent article in the Federalist, the SPLC is a partisan Democratic group masquerading as an anti-hate group whose word about things should not be taken at face value.  They tend to label all conservatives as hate groups.

Look at the links provided in the SPLC page--e.g. the interview with the neoconfederate group. It has "white nationalist" written all over it. Now you can argue about whether it's fair to criticize PF for this, but you can't convincingly deny that Rose is a white nationalist.

[Figueira]

Are there a significant number of people in Montana who will vote Democratic no matter what, except in presidential races?

[Figueira]

Since when is Montana a "socially conservative state"?

[Figueira]

The real question now is: What would the MT GOP prefer in 2018? Running against an incumbent Quist or running the incumbent Greg Gianforte? (assuming he even serves a full term - he might be pressured into retiring).

Probably the former.  Quist should go down to a competent challenger unless it's a Dem wave year, and even then, he's probably toast in 2020 with Trump's base turnout.  

Unless MT-02 happens, in which case Quist could entrench himself, however that looks unlikely.

MT-02 wouldn't kick in until 2022. It's conceivable that 2020 could be another Democratic wave, though I wouldn't call it likely.

[Figueira]

Can we please start calling him Crazy Greg? I love the Donald Trump style naming and this one has a real ring to it.

Slammin' Greg

I like "Violent Greg."

[Figueira]

Guys, please stay on topic. Arguing which side is more violent is pointless and frankly an argument no one wins anyway.

Maybe lock this until the morning so people can calm down for a while?

I don't see why. The election is still going on.

[Figueira]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm still not totally convinced that Quist will win yet, nor did I ever get the impression that Gianforte was an Akin-type before all of this. I still think that post is gold, though.

Fair enough.

Also, as someone else in IRC pointed out (forgive me; I forget who), this means that Gianforte will likely not run for Governor in 2020, meaning that Fox will probably do so rather than run against Tester. It's astonishing how one man's absolutely f-cking stupid actions will affect this entire state in the future.

No? Why would this incident change Fox's mind? He could still run for Senate if he wants to. I think Rosendale might be the GOP nominee for governor in 2020 assuming Fox runs against Tester. Republicans will probably lose the gubernatorial race by 2-4 or so.

Also, Mark Racicot isn't going to run for anything.

I think the logic is that Fox would rather run for Governor and not Senate, and was only considering running for Senate because he didn't want to challenge Gianforte in a gubernatorial primary. Not sure how likely that is.

[Figueira]

Interesting article about this race from last week

[Figueira]

So, could I be wrong about predicting a Gianforte +3 win?

Sure, you could. Or you could be right. I think that's a solid prediction, but I'm predicting Gianforte+1.

[Figueira]

DDHQ is apparently about to call it for Gianforte.

Seems VERY early but probably correct.

DDHQ always calls things ridiculously early.

[Figueira]

status quo of the last special elections:

dems are mostly doing better than thought in urban centers and rep better than in the past everywhere else.

and mt seems to be especially difficult.

That wasn't true in Kansas, no matter how many times people say it was.

[Figueira]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

I don't give a sh*t if it is "elitist" but that is deplorable

You don't need to not give a sh*t. It simply isn't elitist.

People should stop insulting working-class people by referring to basic human decency as "elitist."

[Figueira]

Hahahaha!


The party of  'voter rights' is trying to cancel the election! Not the way it works!

Link


DCCC chair Rep. Lujan: "Greg Gianforte is unfit to represent MT. There’s no question in my mind Gianforte should not be sworn into office."

Unfortunately you got a point. As much as it pains me to say, PF won fair and square.

Winning an election does not make you above the law.