ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
Posts: 21,102
Political Matrix E: 7.10, S: -7.65
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« on: December 25, 2015, 10:44:01 PM » |
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We know Hispanics don't turnout out good, but digging deep into the data suggests they really don't turnout good, especially in places like Texas, but also similarly bad in the central valley of California and Phoenix, Arizona, among other places. I decided to take very white and very Hispanic areas of Texas, about the same population, and compare them vote wise. These first ones are in rural western Texas, one of the most Republican places in the country. There's no way to tell how much of the electorate is actually Hispanic in these very Hispanic areas, but its probably more like 50% than 80%. Its no wonder why so many of these counties are majority Hispanic yet vote overwhelmingly Republican when you see this...
Population: 62,659 (79.3% Hispanic, 16.0% White) VAP: 43,065 (76.5% Hispanic, 18.7% White)
McCain: 6,159 (50.4%) Obama: 6,058 (49.6%)
Total: 12,217 (28.4% of VAP)
Population: 62,497 (81.4% White, 14.7% Hispanic) VAP: 46,841 (83.8% White, 12.5% Hispanic)
McCain: 22,531 (81.4%) Obama: 5,143 (18.6%)
Total: 27,674 (59.1% of VAP)
And its not just rural Hispanics. In fact, urban Hispanics probably turn out worse. For example, very Hispanic and white areas in Houston.
Population: 62,200 (84.7% Hispanic, 10.1% White) VAP: 40,742 (80.5% Hispanic, 13.5% White)
Obama: 3,864 (56.8%) McCain: 2,937 (43.2%)
Total: 6,801 (16.7% of VAP)
Population: 63,384 (80.7% White) VAP: 51,076 (81.5% White)
McCain: 21,256 (60.5%) Obama: 13,874 (39.5%)
Total: 35,130 (68.8% of VAP)
Hispanics are voting Democratic, they're just voting in small numbers. Its astonishing the potential for Democrats if Hispanics had similar turnout rates as whites and blacks, but if they don't turnout out, they don't count. I'm well aware that Texas Hispanics probably turnout out worse than most other states' Hispanics, but its to show a pattern.
If all ethnic/racial groups turned out the same, the Texas Governor race last year would've been 53-45 instead of 59-39, for example. That's a 12 point difference that would have the potential to flip many races across the country into the Democrats control.
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