UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[DaWN]

More of London news, but TfL have announced the opening of the 'central core' of the new Elizabeth Line will be delayed from December 2018 to autumn 2019, basically due to the need to make sure it's reliable and safe first...

 Something to bear in mind with British rail projects is that they are always late and always over budget without exception.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/joanryanEnfield/status/1037827090723340289?s=19


https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1037846358902927360?s=19

A sad but wholly predictable state of affairs. Hopefully someone will say 'enough is enough' soon but I doubt it unfortunately.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1042806209240342528?s=19

^^ well 🤓

To the surprise of precisely nobody.

[DaWN]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful. I can't tell if Corbyn's insistence on one is either a cover tactic so after the fact he can go 'at I least I tried guvnor' or whether he really is delusional enough to think that May is going to call an election because he wants one.

[DaWN]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful.

It's not about what May wants. If no Brexit deal can get through parliament then there's no alternative.

It's absolutely about what May wants because she's the Prime Minister and she commands a majority in the House of Commons. Of course, divisions over Brexit might put an end to that majority, but it's pretty unlikely to galvanise 2/3rds of the House against her. If no deal can get through Parliament, then May will shrug her shoulders and the Tories will lead us through a no-deal Brexit. It would obviously be a disaster, but when was the last time the Tories put national interest over their own self-survival? (And of course, disaster may well be unavoidable at this point anyway.)

[DaWN]

It's absolutely about what May wants because she's the Prime Minister and she commands a majority in the House of Commons. Of course, divisions over Brexit might put an end to that majority, but it's pretty unlikely to galvanise 2/3rds of the House against her.

Except a motion of no confidence only needs a majority.

There is no majority in Parliament for a deal. There is no majority in Parliament for no deal either. Therefore, the dissolution of Parliament is inevitable.

What reason would any Tory MP have to vote down their own government? I have no doubt some of them despise May and her Brexit strategy from both sides of the spectrum, and will happily vote down her or any deal, but not a single one of them is going to vote against their own government on a confidence motion and risk PM Corbyn. As for the DUP, they certainly wouldn't risk that.

Again, it doesn't matter if there's no majority for a deal. The Tories are self-preservationists and will happily enact Brexit without so much as a leaving postcard if it keeps them in government.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1052195561544278016?s=19

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1052206201876885504?s=19

Bye bye you old hack. Shame it's not going to be sooner, but I can at least be partially content that one terrible old political has-been in this country is out the door.

[DaWN]

David Cameron has told friends he is planning to return to frontline politics as the next Foreign Secretary

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7639377/david-cameron-return-to-politics/

- Friend who Cameron confided in said he is now “bored s***less”, two years on from walking out of No10

- Also: Boris Johnson tells allies he has given up hope of becoming the next Tory leader.

- But Boris still hopes to be “in the mix” for a Cabinet job under Mrs May’s successor.

And there was me thinking British politics couldn't get any worse

[DaWN]

Regarding transport infrastructure, Crossrail 2 and the third runway (or at least some kind of airport expansion) are pretty necessary capacity enhancements as London's transport system is at breaking point and has been for a while. Frankly, I doubt Crossrail 2 will be enough. That's not to say there aren't serious problems in the north and west, but a) they aren't as much of an issue as in London and b) there's much more investment in the north and west than there has been in the past, and even if it's not much on London, it's still an improvement not to be sniffed at.

[DaWN]

Interview with Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn 'We Can't Stop Brexit'
If you could stop Brexit, would you?
JEREMY CORBYN: We can't stop it. The referendum took place. Article 50 has been triggered. What we can do is recognize the reasons why people voted Leave.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-labour-leader-corbyn-we-can-t-stop-brexit-a-1237594.html#ref=rss

He's so utterly pathetic.

[DaWN]

I want to say "she's finished at last", but May has made such a habit of barely surviving that I keep expecting her not to fall somehow.

Corbyn faced a no confidence vote from his MPs. He's still there.

Because the MPs are spineless and the Labour membership is full of TUSC/SWP castoffs. May has neither of those advantages - in fact the only one she does have is that there is nobody obvious who could replace her without pissing off most of the party, which is what has kept her in so far and what I suspect will keep her in this time as well.

[DaWN]

Yeah There won't be an election. There aren't the numbers for it and I would really question the wisdom of the decision for either main party if there were.

Of course, that doesn't stop many in media going on about it, and our enlightened Comrade Leader of the Opposition seems to think it'll be a brilliant masterstroke that'll sweep him into power. If you say so mate.

I'd say the status quo continuing to wither along until the whole thing just breaks down remains the most likely option at this point. Too many people have too much to lose from any other outcome.

[DaWN]

@StigAbell
The Lib Dems’ utter inability to make significant gains in the last six months must count as one of the biggest political failures in my lifetime.

^^ He's not wrong, Clegg absolutely destroyed the party and Vince cable is struggling to expand the party beyond 7-8%...

This is so true.

With Corbyn a polarizing leader of Labour and Theresa May making everyone pissy - You’d think the Lib Dems would make serious serious gains at this stage

because we're back to 2-party system or at least in England.
Labour and tories polled 82.4% (UK-wide) of the vote in 2017 and 87.3% of the vote in England in 2017,
it's the highest both labour and tories polled since 1970..

There's little doubt in mind a credible third party would do very well. Aside from their vocal cheerleaders, I don't think there's much enthusiasm for either third party. That credible third party is not the Lib Dems who still have the stench of coalition on them and while I do respect Vince, he's far too low energy and has kept far too low of a profile to do much. With their policies and how awful the main two parties are I should be all over them - instead I vote for them VERY reluctantly because the alternatives are worse. Until we get a new party of some kind, I don't think the appalling status quo is going anywhere.

[DaWN]

@simonjhix
I was in Bxl on 24 June 2016. By chance I had meetings with 2 Spanish MEPs that day: 1 PP & the 1 PSOE. Independently of each other, they both raised Brexit and predicted that “Spain will get Gibraltar back”, as no-one could now stop them closing the border, unlike in the 1980s

The parable of Gibraltar and Britain
Gibraltar could prove testing for Britain’s relationship with Spain during the forthcoming Brexit negotiations

https://www.economist.com/britain/2017/03/04/the-parable-of-gibraltar-and-britain

^^ UK Government should swallow its pride and hand back Gibraltar to Spain,
it will save us money and we can reverse the military cut in Plymouth and Portsmouth..

And the apparently insignificant matter of the 30,000 people who live there and don't want to be part of Spain?

[DaWN]

@simonjhix
I was in Bxl on 24 June 2016. By chance I had meetings with 2 Spanish MEPs that day: 1 PP & the 1 PSOE. Independently of each other, they both raised Brexit and predicted that “Spain will get Gibraltar back”, as no-one could now stop them closing the border, unlike in the 1980s

The parable of Gibraltar and Britain
Gibraltar could prove testing for Britain’s relationship with Spain during the forthcoming Brexit negotiations

https://www.economist.com/britain/2017/03/04/the-parable-of-gibraltar-and-britain

^^ UK Government should swallow its pride and hand back Gibraltar to Spain,
it will save us money and we can reverse the military cut in Plymouth and Portsmouth..

And the apparently insignificant matter of the 30,000 people who live there and don't want to be part of Spain?

They voted overwhelmingly to remain part of the EU

So did my local council. Doesn't mean that we want to become El Lambeth any time soon.

In 2002 Gibraltar voted 98% to retain complete British sovereignty. Even with what has happened since then I'd say that's pretty decisive and indicates there's a very large majority support for remaining part of Britain.

[DaWN]

And anyway why should we be the ones to swallow our pride about it? Given the fairly obvious popular support for remaining part of the UK, it should be the Spanish who swallow their pride and accept they're not going to control every bit of land that they want. I'm no imperialist (to put it mildly) but it astonishes me how many people are willing to throw the self-determination of places like Gibraltar and the Falklands out the window for little more than posturing.

[DaWN]

And anyway why should we be the ones to swallow our pride about it? Given the fairly obvious popular support for remaining part of the UK, it should be the Spanish who swallow their pride and accept they're not going to control every bit of land that they want. I'm no imperialist (to put it mildly) but it astonishes me how many people are willing to throw the self-determination of places like Gibraltar and the Falklands out the window for little more than posturing.

I don't see the evidence, how can you say that? because of a referendum conducted 16 years?!
people change their views when the circumstances change,

A 16 year old referendum is still a more reliable indicator of opinion than 'they might have changed their minds.' Sure, they might have done, but 98% support even 16 years ago doesn't bore that out as particularly likely.

[DaWN]

And anyway why should we be the ones to swallow our pride about it? Given the fairly obvious popular support for remaining part of the UK, it should be the Spanish who swallow their pride and accept they're not going to control every bit of land that they want. I'm no imperialist (to put it mildly) but it astonishes me how many people are willing to throw the self-determination of places like Gibraltar and the Falklands out the window for little more than posturing.

I don't see the evidence, how can you say that? because of a referendum conducted 16 years?!
people change their views when the circumstances change,

A 16 year old referendum is still a more reliable indicator of opinion than 'they might have changed their minds.' Sure, they might have done, but 98% support even 16 years ago doesn't bore that out as particularly likely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkland_Islands_sovereignty_referendum,_2013

What's that got to do with anything?

[DaWN]

And anyway why should we be the ones to swallow our pride about it? Given the fairly obvious popular support for remaining part of the UK, it should be the Spanish who swallow their pride and accept they're not going to control every bit of land that they want. I'm no imperialist (to put it mildly) but it astonishes me how many people are willing to throw the self-determination of places like Gibraltar and the Falklands out the window for little more than posturing.

I don't see the evidence, how can you say that? because of a referendum conducted 16 years?!
people change their views when the circumstances change,

A 16 year old referendum is still a more reliable indicator of opinion than 'they might have changed their minds.' Sure, they might have done, but 98% support even 16 years ago doesn't bore that out as particularly likely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkland_Islands_sovereignty_referendum,_2013

What's that got to do with anything?

I was mainly backing up your arguments relating to the Falklands and to Gibraltar.

Oh I see. Apologies.

[DaWN]

'What England wants, it gets': Brexit deal fails to win over Scottish voters
Few in Glasgow have a good word to say about Brexit, and many feel ignored by Westminster
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/20/what-england-wants-it-gets-brexit-deal-fails-to-win-over-scottish-voters?CMP=share_btn_tw

Nicola Sturgeon says independence referendum could come after Holyrood election
https://www.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-says-independence-referendum-could-come-after-holyrood-election-1-4832488

This may end up being an unwise prediction, but I don't think Indyref2 is happening any time soon. I don't like Sturgeon (to put it mildly) but she's far from an idiot - she won't call a referendum she doesn't think she can win, and despite all the Brexit cock ups, polling shows No still has a pretty sizeable lead, and the Unionists aren't going to make the same mistake of running a crappy campaign a second time around.

[DaWN]

Scotland would've voted YES 4 years ago had Alex Salmond not made it all about himself,

I don't doubt that. The point I was making is that this time the Unionist campaign won't have David bloody Cameron fronting it. They'll have popular figures like Davidson and they won't repeat their dumb mistakes from last time which very nearly cost them.

Demographics changes favour independence,

Certainly possible, although I suspect the next round of non-Tory national government (whenever that is, probably not soon lmao) will see independence support drop a bit.

I think Scottish independence would be a great thing for Scotland, particularly for for left-leaning Scots who yearn for fairer, more just society outside the rigged London centric economy.
The Nordic model is hugely popular in Scotland...

It would be a great thing for Scotland in the same way Brexit is going to be a great thing for the UK - it isn't. It would be shallow nationalism and demonising of the 'enemy' (the English/Eastern Europeans respectively) winning over economic and political reality.

As for the 'London centric economy', really? There's a reason the UK economy centres on London, it's because it's one of the most important economic centres in the world. There's economic disparity between regions obviously, but I think those in the North of England and Wales probably have more to complain about than the Scots there.

The Nordic model is popular in England as well I'd imagine. People still vote for the Tories because of dumb reasons and I suspect the Scottish Conservatives would find themselves in a very good position in an independent Scotland once the SNP realise that governing an independent country isn't just posturing and screaming about how it's all the English's fault.

[DaWN]

It's getting to the point where I'm just enjoying the utter hilarity of it all now. We're f!cked either way, might as well get some entertainment from the once mighty Conservative party falling into a farce straight out of a school pantomime, Twitter socialists aghast that the public don't adore their Lord and Messiah as much as they do, and irrelevant throwbacks from the New Labour era desperately trying to stay relevant but ending up hurting the causes they are espousing simply by opening their mouths. The only bit I can't get entertainment from is Comrade Useless and his merry chums, simply because of how depressing it is that they're the only hope of stopping the idiots in power, but can't have it all. Just enjoy the show until things improve (if they improve lol).

[DaWN]

^^ I though for while Labour would start leading in polls sooner or later, as the tories are failing miserably to govern.

There's a huge amount of people who just won't vote for Corbyn, regardless of whether they 'Agree with him on the issues!!!!' or 'Disagree with austerity!!!'. I agree with him on some of the issues and I think austerity is economic insanity, yet I wouldn't vote for Labour under him if you forced me. His style, his previous company, the anti-semitism stuff, his refusal to actual oppose the government in any meaningful way on Brexit, it all puts people off, despite what the Twitter socialists would have you believe.

And remember, the Tories are failing miserably to govern, but the one thing they will never fail miserably at is self-preservation, especially with an opposition so useless.

Let hope after march 2019 this nightmare ends, and the political class start talking about real issues like NHS and social care, railways and transport, education, climate change and fracking, housing, welfare and universal credit, etc

I wouldn't put money on it. Like it or not, this is probably going to dominate our political sphere for years yet. At least there's a good chance the disaster brings down the existing political status quo and we get something vaguely acceptable out of the ashes. We as a country can't have nice things though, so probably not.

[DaWN]

And this debate thing is reinforcing what I said further up. Absolutely comedy gold - Labour throwing a fit because the BBC aren't letting Corbyn go up on a stage and talk about how much he loves Brexit and agrees with May for an hour.

[DaWN]

So, the "meaningful vote" is on Tuesday. What's everyone's predictions for how it will go?

May will almost certainly lose. Whether she survives or not depends on the margin and how the alternatives present themselves in the immediate aftermath. My personal prediction is that it won't be all that close and May will be gone at some point during January, the new PM will attempt to delay Article 50 and Corbyn will be left seething that the sidelines that there won't be a general election he so desperately wants. The delay to Article 50 won't end up meaning anything though, and we'll probably crash out with no deal or something worse than the current deal, because nobody in any part of British politics has the slightest idea of how to sort all this out, because of a long, and I suspect now irreparable, trail of stupidity and incompetence going back to well before June 2016.