Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[RogueBeaver]

Scarborough-Agincourt: Yip is in.

[Njall]

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

[DC Al Fine]

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

Is he quitting politics or is this one of those "get your seat back next election" deals?

[MaxQue]

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

Is he quitting politics or is this one of those "get your seat back next election" deals?

Probably more a "you'll get a comfy paid position once we recover the power electors stole from us".

[mileslunn]

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

Is he quitting politics or is this one of those "get your seat back next election" deals?

I wouldn't be surprised if Dave Rodney tries to make a comeback while I could see Kenney switching to one of the nearby seats although to be fair the PCs won most of the seats in his former federal riding, that is the most conservative part of the city and so it didn't go NDP like the rest and also backed Bill Smith as opposed to Nenshi for mayor.  Anyways seems like a fairly safe seat so I expect Kenney to win it quite handidly.  How he does in a general election is a different story and that you can see the discussion on the Alberta UCP leadership race.
Probably more a "you'll get a comfy paid position once we recover the power electors stole from us".

[adma]

I think it'll be interesting if the NDP *aren't* second place in the byelection.

[the506]

Missed this from a few weeks ago, but PEI Education Minister Doug Currie is leaving politics.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-doug-currie-retiring-1.4361994

The by-election in Charlottetown-Parkdale will be held November 27, city councillor Rob Doiron has already won the Liberal nomination.
http://www.liberalpei.ca/by-election-to-be-held-november-27th/

EDIT: the Greens also nominated their candidate last night, Hannah Bell, in front of what CBC called a "packed house". They won 3 polls out of 11 here in 2015. They might actually have a shot at this.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-green-party-nomination-1.4378589

[mileslunn]

Charlottetown-Parkdale should likely favour the Liberals although if the NDP or Greens are hoping to pick up this seat this would seem like a good one.  PCs could win and certainly if they did that would be a very good sign although of recent they tend to be stronger in the rural ridings while struggle in Charlottetown.

[the506]

In NB, Campbellton-Dalhousie Liberal MLA Donald Arseneault, has resigned after Brian Gallant told him you, uh, kinda can't be both an MLA and lobbyist at the same time. He already wasn't going to run in 2018 and decided to start his new job early.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/donald-arseneault-lobbyist-liberal-mla-1.4385571

Should be a fairly easy Liberal hold, but stranger things have happened.

[Hatman 🍁]

Campbellton went PC in 2010, so I wouldn't rule out a PC win. Northern New Brunswick can be quite schizophrenic in its voting patterns.

[RogueBeaver]

Federal ones called for Dec. 11.

[DC Al Fine]

Federal ones called for Dec. 11.

Oh good. Thought we wouldn't see much going on electorally until next spring.

[Lotuslander]

Let's look at South Surrey-White Rock vacated by Dianne Watts.

Prior to redistribution, it was the riding of South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale. Interesting since the last time the fed Liberals came close here was in 2004 when a bit of a red wave made its way from City of Vancouver to the outer suburbs of South Surrey-White Rock whereby fed Liberals came within 6% of the CPC candidate. Looking at polling stations in 2004, the CPC did very well in the Cloverdale portion. With Cloverdale removed, the fed Liberals would undoubtedly picked this seat up in 2004.

Of course, the red wave of 2015 was akin to 1968 and swept through most of BC. Undoubtedly, the federal Liberals would have picked this riding up in 2015 had it not been for CPC candidate Dianne Watts who narrowly won.

BTW, in both 2004 and 2015, the federal Liberal candidate was former City of Surrey councillor Judy Higginbotham - "blue" Liberal.

Today, former long-time BC Liberal MLA Gordie Hogg for Surrey-White Rock (who did not run in 2017 BC election and also former mayor of White Rock) has officially announced his intention to run for the federal Liberal nomination. If no one else steps up, I expect Hogg to be fed Liberal nominee.

A few weeks back former fed CPC MP for neighbeighbouring riding of Delta & former Minister of National Revenue, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, announced her intention to seek the CPC nomination. Again, if no one else steps up to the plate, I suspect Findlay to be the CPC nominee.

Demographics of South Surrey-White Rock are typically centre-right and middle/upper middle class in an area considered to be one of most desirable in Metro Vancouver.

Hogg was a popular local BC Liberal MLA with name recognition while Findlay doesn't have the name recognition in the riding.

Will the red "wave" of 2015 remain in this by-election? Doubtful as they are rare general election events. While the Fed Liberals are still dominant in BC, I also sense an uptick for the CPC ergo the odds slightly favour the CPC candidate. Moreover, provincial BC by-elections (except under special circumstances) always favours an opposition party.

[mileslunn]

With South Surrey-White Rock, tough to say but agree it would have gone Liberal in 2015 had Watts not been the candidate.  That being said if you look at national polls FWIW it shows things have tightened up in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and Prairies, but BC is largely unchanged and Liberals have gone up in Quebec while Tories down a bit.  Atlantic Canada is more of a dead cat bounce as even with the Tories up almost 10%, they are still on track for their second worst showing in Atlantic Canada save 2015.  Quebec is probably more due to weakness of opposition as none of the opposition parties pose much challenge to the Trudeau Liberals.  For Ontario, I suspect the unpopularity if the Wynne government is why things are tighter and would not be surprised if the PCs win in Ontario in 2018, the Liberals rebound a bit federally.  Ontario often likes to vote opposites so if the PCs win next June that should be good news for the Liberals whereas if the Liberals get back in, then good news for the Tories.  In the Prairies the swing is modest but not surprising in Alberta Trudeau would be unpopular.  BC is always a wildcard and since the NDP provincially is still in its honeymoon phase for now that is probably why not much has changed.

Now if the NDP becomes less popular provincially and the Greens likely would too due to enabling them, then things could get more interesting.  This could help the Liberals as I suspect dissatisfied Green and NDP voters would be far more likely to switch to the Liberals than Conservatives.  But could help the Conservatives as some Blue Liberals might not like the idea of progressive governments at both levels.  The riding though is a fairly affluent one so perhaps Trudeau's tax changes could hurt him while changes to MSP Premiums might hurt  the NDP as likely it will mean higher taxes or a separate line item and a higher rate for most living in this riding.  If you compare to Ontario which has health premiums as part of the tax system, someone making 70K would pay more than BC while someone at 40K would pay less and in this riding you have more in the former than latter and the report is due on March 31, 2018 so not sure if by-election will be held before or after.  Also by-election turnouts tend to be lower and that is probably good for the Conservatives as their base is more motivated to show up and it means more older voters and fewer millennials which helps the Conservatives.

Of the other ones pending, Battlefords-Lloydminister and Bonavista-Burin-Trinity are safe seats and should not change.  With Battlefords-Lloydminster the only interesting question is who comes in second as that might be a hint at which party can challenge the Conservatives most in Saskatoon and Regina.  For Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, it will be more than numbers that are interesting.  The Liberals got 80% in 2015 and Tories only 12% so does it remain this wide or tighten and by how much as that might be a hint at how many seats the Tories could pick up in Atlantic Canada next time, otherwise are traditional Tory seats that went Liberal like Tobique-Mactquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest vulnerable or could the Liberals still hold those.

Scarborough-Agincourt leans Liberal and with Arnold Chan's wife running that should help.  Nonetheless if the Liberals lose this or win by less than 5%, this could signal much of the 905 belt would swing back to the Conservatives as this is a 416 suburb so leans Liberal but with a strong conservative base and usually conservative support is slightly weaker than in the neighbouring 905 ridings.

EDIT: Trudeau has called these for December 11th so doubt from the NDP government in BC will have too much impact.  Never mind South Surrey-White Rock is a weak NDP riding anyways.

[mileslunn]

Denis Lemieux from Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is resigning so sometime in the new year a by-election here.  As long as the Liberals maintain their polling numbers in Quebec, suspect they will hold this, but Quebec is known to switch on the dime so if poll numbers change dramatically then you could get an upset.

[lilTommy]

Denis Lemieux from Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is resigning so sometime in the new year a by-election here.  As long as the Liberals maintain their polling numbers in Quebec, suspect they will hold this, but Quebec is known to switch on the dime so if poll numbers change dramatically then you could get an upset.

Wonder if Dany Morin, NDP MP from 2011-2015 would be up for this run?

[MaxQue]

Denis Lemieux from Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is resigning so sometime in the new year a by-election here.  As long as the Liberals maintain their polling numbers in Quebec, suspect they will hold this, but Quebec is known to switch on the dime so if poll numbers change dramatically then you could get an upset.

For "family" reasons. More likely to provide a seat to Jean Tremblay, outgoing mayor of Saguenay.

[136or142]

What is the record for the most by-elections (Or bye bye elections) during a term of Parliament?  Other than the couple M.Ps who died, doesn't anybody want to do the job they ran to get?

I remember in 1977 or so there was the 'mini election' by-election.

[DL]

Denis Lemieux from Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is resigning so sometime in the new year a by-election here.  As long as the Liberals maintain their polling numbers in Quebec, suspect they will hold this, but Quebec is known to switch on the dime so if poll numbers change dramatically then you could get an upset.

For "family" reasons. More likely to provide a seat to Jean Tremblay, outgoing mayor of Saguenay.

Tremblay is a right wing social conservative who is outspoken about reciting Christian prayers at council meetings and about wanting draconian restrictions onMuslims. I can’t see the federal Liberals touching him with a ten foot pole.

[136or142]

Federal Liberals have nominated longtime provincial Liberal MLA Gordie Hogg as their candidate in the South Surrey-White Rock by-election.  Hogg is the former mayor of White Rock and ran for the Federal Liberals in 1993.

Hogg was an MLA from 1997-2017, winning the by-election when Wilf Hurd stepped down from the provincial liberals to run in this riding (more or less this riding) in the 1997 Federal Election.

Hogg was a cabinet minister for a while under Gordon Campbell and after being dropped from the cabinet, went on to get an interdisciplinary PhD in Public Policy.  He became a criminology professor after the election.

[Jeppe]

Gordon Hoggs was confirmed as the Liberal candidate in South Surrey-White Rock, along wth Jean Yip in Scarborough-Agincourt.

Rosemarie Falk, a 29 year old social worker was selected as the Conservative candidate in North Battlefords-Lloydminster. Ken Finlayson, a controversial candidate was barred from running, otherwise he likely would've won the nomination.

I haven't seen any other candidate nominations for the December 11 by-elections.

[Lotuslander]

Former fed CPC MP for neighbeighbouring BC riding of Delta & former Minister of National Revenue, Kerry-Lynne Findlay is now the CPC nominee for South Surrey-White Rock. Occurred Friday, November 10.

PS. Fed Liberal nominee Gordon Hogg was November 7.

[Hatman 🍁]

Melfort MLA Kevin Phillips has died.

[Jeppe]

Talk on the ground in Saskatchewan is that the new Premier (likely Alanna Koch) will call a spring snap election to secure a new mandate. If not, then the next set of by-elections will surely happen the same week as the NDP leadership race (first week of March).

Koch would be the leader of a caucus that doesn’t like her very much, so it’ll be a chance to catch the NDP off guard, likely before they choose a permanent leader, and fill caucus with her loyalists and allowing the dissidents in her caucus a chance to to retire gracefully.

[DL]

Talk on the ground in Saskatchewan is that the new Premier (likely Alanna Koch) will call a spring snap election to secure a new mandate. If not, then the next set of by-elections will surely happen the same week as the NDP leadership race (first week of March).

Koch would be the leader of a caucus that doesn’t like her very much, so it’ll be a chance to catch the NDP off guard, likely before they choose a permanent leader, and fill caucus with her loyalists and allowing the dissidents in her caucus a chance to to retire gracefully.

The history of premiers with large majorities calling early "snap elections' is not good. Ask David Peterson or more recently Jim Prentice. On top of that, I wonder if people in Saskatchewan also have a strong sense of "fair play" and to call an election two years ahead of schedule just weeks before the official opposition is to pick and new leader seems incredibly cynical and opportunistic...