UK Hypothetical - Four-Way effective Tie

[Filinovich]

Imagine a scenario where the next general election is called and all of the four major parties received about a quarter of the seats in the Commons (either directly or among aligned smaller parties, such as the Greens with the Liberal Democrats). Three parties are needed to form a government. Which government do you think is most likely to be formed (if one is)?

In case you were curious, I've ordered the parties by their performance at the previous general election.

[Former President tack50]

Write In: Lab-Lib-SNP

Labour accepts a 2nd referendum reclutantly and does a deal with the Lib Dems and the SNP. A coalition of chaos if you will.

Alternatively if that doesn't have a majority somehow, then it's Con-Bxp-DUP and the UK leaves with no deal.

[mileslunn]

If it happens likely the Queen's speech gets voted down and another election is my guess.  Liberal Democrats will only agree if they are in charge as supporting the Tories hurt them and with Corbyn as leader supporting Labour could hurt them, especially amongst pro-remain Tory switchers and business community.  Still I could see Liberal Democrats agreeing to prop up Labour if they agree to another referendum and they replace Corbyn with a pro-remain leader.

Ironically most polls show if you take the Tories + Brexit party, they are north of 40% so if they merged and every vote transferred over they would win a majority.  But much like what happened between 2015 and 2017 where not all of UKIP's support went over to the Tories, I suspect the same with Brexit Party.  In fact elimination of Brexit Party would probably see a jump in support for Labour Party although a bigger jump for Tories.

[Tintrlvr]

If it were a genuine four-way tie with no minor parties somehow, then Con-Lab-LD is the only three-party solution. The LDs and Brexit Party could never work together in any coalition, and I think it's virtually impossible to imagine Labour being willing to go into coalition with two right-wing parties.

If the four parties were tied and the SNP also won some seats, Lab-LD or LD-Lab with SNP support either within or outside of government is obvious. You might also see an LD minority government in that circumstance without Labour officially in government but supporting them from the sidelines. Actually, an LD minority government is likeliest scenario regardless in the event of a seat tie (although if votes were not tied, the party that got the most votes might make some principled claim to lead) because they could command the widest supporting coalition and have the flexibility to be able to seek deals with different parties depending on the issue more than Con and Lab do.

Obviously this would result in another election within a year in any case.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

LIB-LAB-SNP, with Swinson as PM.

[brucejoel99]

LAB-LIB-SNP, with the leader of the largest party as PM, but if Labour is the largest party, then Corbyn has to go a-la how Brown was willing to step down for a Lib-Lab deal in 2010.