Are Illinois and Delaware the only states where... (user search)
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  Are Illinois and Delaware the only states where... (search mode)
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Author Topic: Are Illinois and Delaware the only states where...  (Read 6899 times)
cinyc
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« on: June 09, 2019, 08:29:40 PM »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.



Hawaii, in theory. Honolulu County is much larger than the rest. Picture a neighbor island Republican who gets support there but not on Oahu.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2019, 09:34:10 PM »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.



Hawaii, in theory. Honolulu County is much larger than the rest. Picture a neighbor island Republican who gets support there but not on Oahu.

The problem here is that Honolulu County is also by a significant amount also the County in Hawaii with the weakest Democratic leanings.

Also, even when Rauner won all but 1 of Illinois Counties, and won statewide in the process in 2014; there was still another County where he did worse than his statewide total.

HI-02 actually voted to the right of the Urban Honolulu HI-01 this cycle.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2019, 12:18:55 AM »

That is more likely to be Rhode Island than Illinois at this point. I doubt that Lake County IL is ever going republican again.

Do you think a Republican will never win statewide again?  Rauner won it by 22 points in 2014 and only lost it by 8 last year (while losing by 18).  It will vote Republican in a close election, especially if the GOP candidate is from the suburbs.

Never is a very long time.
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