Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[DanielX]

Good for:
Huckabee: Very impressive. I'd move him up to first-tier candidates. If Fred Thompson fizzles Huckabee will be the "conservative" wing's choice.
Tancredo: The Pat Buchanan of 2008, if Paul isn't...
Brownback: Not as well off as Huckabee, but not so bad either. I'd put him near the top of the second tier now.

Neutral for:
Romney: Only big media-hyped candidate to show. Won, but cost him lots of $$$ for a relatively puny victory against mostly second-tier candidates.
Giuliani, F. Thompson: Few votes cuz' they didn't show.
Paul: Ahead of most of the second-tier. May be good; he might actually get conventional media attention for him.

Bad for:
The bottom tier (Cox and Hunter). Cox never had a chance, Hunter's was/is minuscule. 
McCain - He's toast.  May or may not drop out.
T. Thompson - Ditto; he's going to drop out.

I think the Republican candidates will be as follows:

First tier (doing well):
Romney, Giuliani, F. Thompson, Huckabee (one or more of these may drift onto the top of the seond tier)

Second Tier (have a chance):
Brownback (if he stays in), Tancredo, Paul, McCain/T. Thompson (if they stay in). One or more may drift to bottom of first tier.

Third Tier (don't really have a chance):
Cox, Hunter, Keyes, Stassen's ghost,  various/sundry