Democracy Corps: Clinton +8 PA, +4 NC, Tied NV, Trump +2 OH

[Wiz in Wis]

On the eve of the first major presidential debate, the latest likely voter survey of the battleground states on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund shows Hillary Clinton settled into a strong lead in Pennsylvania, a modest one in North Carolina, and essentially tied in Ohio and Nevada where our polling had the race earlier.[1] Her overall margin has narrowed from where we had it across the battleground in June. Nothing comes easily in this election year, but the Clinton margin should grow from the structure of the race revealed in this analysis. In the two-person ballot, her margin grows 2-points to a 5-point lead across these states and she takes the lead in Nevada.  And if the 3rd party candidates weaken, as is normal, Clinton disproportionately benefits.

PA
Clinton 46
Trump 38
Johnson 8
Stein 3

NC
Clinton 44
Trump 40
Johnson 9
Stein 3 (not on ballot)

NV
Clinton 42
Trump 42
Johnson 7
Stein 2 (not on ballot)

OH
Trump 41
Clinton 39
Johnson 11
Stein 4


http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1044/Dcorps_WV_Sept%20BG%20Deck_9.23.2016_release.pdf

[Wiz in Wis]

538 has this pollster with a B- and a D+2.4 bias.

That's still very good for NC, but very bad for NV and OH.

NV still a crapshoot, regardless of house lean.