Governors' statewide popularity

[pbrower2a]

Chris Christie slips underwater:

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http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP39_1.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         218
GOP advantage                                             146      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 100
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 30
Modest 0
Huge 198

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina (Civitas):

51% Approve
45% Disapprove

(Gov. Perdue)

46% Approve
41% Disapprove

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted May 10-11, 2011 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2011/civitas-poll-perdue-job-approval-remains-under-50-percent

Huge shift in two months. What did she do right?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0519.pdf

But PPP has yet to show it, although she is catching up to all Republican opponents. The PPP poll ends later, so it is the one that I must use:

North Carolina Survey Results

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         189
GOP advantage                                             146      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 99
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 30
Modest 0
Huge 198

[pbrower2a]

Poll from Texas -- Texas Tribune/University of Texas:

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http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/uttt-201105-summary-day2.pdf

Are Texans beginning to tire of Dubya's successor? It has been ten long years. You can probably forget him as a VP candidate if he isn't "that strong" in a state that isn't going to vote for President Obama, who has an approval rating of 35% in Texas.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         151
GOP advantage                                             109      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 68
Modest 0
Huge 198

[pbrower2a]

pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls

I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!

[pbrower2a]

pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls

I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!

Well yeah, you watched Full Metal Jacket, right?

Anyways, I am guessing Texas is some kind of a Federal Government expirement to see how far right you could push a large political entity before people start to hate you.

I've never seen Full Metal Jacket, but that would seem the wrong flick for getting the girls.

[pbrower2a]

We finally see a tie, thanks to Fairleigh Dickinson College, New Jersey, and Chris Christie:

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2011/blue/

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     21
Obama advantage                                         137
GOP advantage                                             109      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 0
Huge 198

[pbrower2a]

Ohio. The good news for the Governor is that he is more popular than ex-Cavalier LeBron James and Michigan Wolverines Football.

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Hint: if you are a conservative politician, do not bait the police.

Mediocre popularity of the Speaker of the House in his own state:

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But a bad omen for the congressional Republicans, at least in Ohio:

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Governor Kasich would probably win against this guy, though, and maybe the Communist Party nominee for Governor:

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....

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0525.pdf


Also in Big Ten country:

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It looks like an improvement, but that is from a Rasmussen poll.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0525930.pdf

Politically, Florida seems more Midwestern than anything else:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1604



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     21
Obama advantage                                         137
GOP advantage                                             109      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 0
Huge 198

[pbrower2a]

To complete your map:

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - 54% Approve, 20% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/121836484.html

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) - 48% Approve, 40% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.7NEWS.Suffolk.Marginals.April.5.2011.pdf

Maryland: Martin O’Malley (D) - 58% Approve, 30% Disapprove

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20January%202011.pdf

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - 36% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_0203.pdf

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - 31% Approve, 61% Disapprove

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/03/21/tenacious-gadfly/

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - 43% Approve, 48% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=8ca630fe-ac5d-451c-b92d-72581e3b66a6

Thanks for the data, most of it useful.

I must exclude the South Carolina poll because it is taken within a month of the inauguration of a new Governor. (Re-elected governors is a different matter, as already I show approvals for Georgia and Arizona and did for Texas before a later poll came in). I have lots of trouble with SurveyUSA polls. and I am chary of using them for anything. Kansas, maybe, but nobody else seems to ever poll Kansas.   O'Malley is not a new Governor, so he counts.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             129      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 11
Huge 218

[pbrower2a]

Democratic pols are doing well in Minnesota. New PPP poll.

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This poll does not include President, but it says some interesting things about some Republican pols in Minnesota:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_06011118.pdf

Pawlenty isn't faring too badly in the one State that Walter Mondale carried -- until you recognize that Minnesotans know him very well. Michelle Bachmann is extremely unpopular, in view of the high percentage of people who don;t want her running for any political office. A lmost half od all polled Minnesotans don't want her running for a House seat, one of which she now holds.  

New York State, too. This poll is by Quinnipiac, and it changes nothing except as an update:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1606 





Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             129      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 11
Huge 218

[pbrower2a]

Iowa update. The GOP Governor is slipping. The Republican Senator isn't doing too badly, but a pattern is beginning to shape up for Republican Governors in the northeastern quadrant of the US. Terry Branstad now looks like no asset for any Republican Presidential nominee in 2012.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/IowaApprovalNumbers.pdf

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_0608.pdf





Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             129      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 27


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 229

[pbrower2a]

Why is this in the 2012 Presidential board?

The conjecture (mine) that state governors, as the highest-profile politicians in most states except for the President, can help or hurt a Presidential nominee in a marginal race. Such may be a foretaste of how a State eventually votes.

This may have more effect on Senate races... but who knows?

Can an unpopular governor hurt the Presidential campaign in his state? Sure -- if the Governor is so unpopular that no get-out-the-vote  (GOTV) program can work behalf of his Party. A wildly-unpopular Governor can have the opposite effect on behalf of the other Party.

OK -- I can easily see President Obama losing West Virginia (he is the wrong Democrat to win West Virginia) and winning Virginia (he is the first Democrat to be the right Democrat to win Virginia in a close election)... but I look at the unpopularity of new Republican Governors in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida... and I can't see any one of the new Governors as an asset to any Republican. "I hate the Governor!" is a good motivator for a GOTV campaign for the other side.   Does anyone expect Wisconsin to be an easy flip in 2012 for the Republican nominee for President? In December 2011 people might have thought so -- but not now. 

Aside from measuring the popularity or unpopularity of a Governor as a partisan advantage, maybe this exercise is a surrogate for something else -- like the popularity of the Party.

Did you see the reports for Republican governors in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas? Georgia was close in 2008 for the Presidency. Arizona wasn't the blowout that it usually is for a nominee from the state. Georgia might not have a Senate seat up for grabs, but Arizona and Texas will have them in 2012. 

[pbrower2a]

South Carolina, PPP. Finally, we get to know.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_06091023.pdf

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Nikki Haley  is in better shape than a bunch of other Republican Governors. I'm going to guess that she is more of a survivor than the others. She won't be a hindrance to Senator Lindsey Graham getting re-elected or to a  Republican nominee for President. But she's not going to be much of a help; she has yet to become a political powerhouse. She's just not in trouble from the start.

Interesting sidebar:

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South Carolina is 'only' about 26% African-American, so any d@mnyankees who want to deride South Carolina as a haven for admirers of the Confederacy are... pardon the expression... "whistling "Dixie". South Carolina may have been the first state to secede from the Union... that is past. Way past.

Oregon. The Democratic governor is doing fine, 45-34:


http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/oregon_media_partners--annot--june.pdf

KY (Braun Research):

Gov. Steve Beshear (D)

65% Approve
30% Disapprove

The cn|2 Poll was conducted June 6-8 by live interviewers from Braun Research, Inc. The 802 respondents contacted for the survey voted in the 2007 or 2010 elections or both with about 88% of those surveyed having voted in both.

The poll has a margin of error of 3. 5 points. You can view the methodology and the detailed results and crosstabs here:

http://mycn2.com/politics/beshear-leads-williams-by-21-points-after-ad-blitz-cn2-poll-shows

Remember -- I am using gaps and not raw approval.

A caveat: I remain convinced that President Obama is the wrong Democratic nominee for President for Kentucky until I see otherwise. He won't win Kentucky except in a landslide, which implies that he will have picked up the votes that Bill Clinton got that neither Gore, Kerry, nor Obama could win.




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         287
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 36


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 243

[pbrower2a]

It looks as if Pennsylvanians are getting accustomed to Governor Corbett (R, PA). They approve of him as Governor (barely), but dislike his policies (barely). Rules require that I go with the total package that approval of the politician in general shows and ignore what is thought of policies.

Oddly President Obama made a gain in approval as did Governor Corbett. But that can happen with an improving atmosphere for politicians of all kinds. This is a big gain in approval for a Republican governor.

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Connecticut, also Quinnipiac

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1612

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 223

[pbrower2a]

Budgeting is a nasty business in hard times with political polarization.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0615925.pdf

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 223

[pbrower2a]

Dayton now negative (probably because of vetoing the popular voter-ID bill):

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor? 

42% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://kstp.com/news/stories/s2165061.shtml?cat=89

Christie is also negative:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?

44% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615

Budgeting is a nasty business in hard times with political polarization.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 66


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 213

[pbrower2a]

Dayton now negative (probably because of vetoing the popular voter-ID bill):

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor? 

42% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://kstp.com/news/stories/s2165061.shtml?cat=89

Christie is also negative:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?

44% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615

Budgeting is a nasty business in hard times with political polarization.

I'm going to rescind the Minnesota poll because it comes from the unreliable Survey2000.   

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_623.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         280
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 226

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OR_624.pdf

Same, roughly, as an earlier poll result this month, so no new map appears.

[pbrower2a]

If Florida were an independent country, then Rick Scott would have cause to fear his generals and admirals. 

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The sample essentially voted as it did in 2008:

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The F on the shape of Florida stands for the sixth month of the year, and only coincidentally
for "failure" or an indelicate combination of words.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         280
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56


No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 226

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1619&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

PPP, Rick Perry, R-TX. It ain't pretty.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_629513.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         294
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 70


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 226

[pbrower2a]

For a Republican Governor of a very Democratic state, Susana Martinez is doing very well.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_705.pdf

For a Democratic Governor of a marginally-D state (or really in any state), Governor Lynch is doing very well

Gov. Lynch (NH):

65% Approve
23% Disapprove

http://www.wmur.com/r/28490625/detail.html

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  14%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         294
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 70


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 226

[pbrower2a]

There was a joke poll on the President in Florida... and this pollster has an unusually sunny view of Governor Rick Scott, at least if one looks at the prose in the analysis. But I can't see how even Doctor Pangloss (Candide by Voltaire is essential reading if you don't get the reference) could see any sunny side of this poll:

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(Snide comment: an alligator bite isn't always lethal, but it often has bad effects. Amputation of a bitten arm or leg is a common treatment of an alligator bite)  

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Yeah, sure... win a bare plurality and then pull a bait-and-switch on the electorate. After you get the Zonk on Let's Make a Deal, you usually get to move on. But such is not so with a Governor, a four-year mistake. Florida voters got the Zonk, and instead of a barnyard animal that one can still return for a little bit of cash one gets a firm supporter of crony capitalism that degrades the state.

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If you want to see more of this incredible writing, then look here:

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/gov-rick-scott-tough-road-reform

Reform? Florida will be interested in some big reform in 2014 unless it has a recall mechanism like that in California that unseated Gray Davis and might depose Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Florida voters would probably amputate this Governor out of politics if they got the chance.

The gap is so large that nobody can spin it.

Another "Zonk", this one you-know-who in Wisconsin:

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Bad formatting... but 37% approve, 59% disapprove.

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP32PressRelease1_WIpols_FINAL.pdf

Badger Poll, from the University of Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania again, PPP, and back underwater:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_714.pdf



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 246

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 246

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Abrasive personalities disappoint the electorate when things go badly.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260

[pbrower2a]

No, I meant (like I said before) that he flipped blue and red here:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow. 

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Corzine?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q3 If you could do the 2009 election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican
Chris Christie or Democrat Jon Corzine?
Chris Christie .................................................. 48%
Jon Corzine..................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Abrasive personalities disappoint the electorate when things go badly.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260


Fixed! Thank you.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1625

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260


Fixed! Thank you.

[/quote]