According to Atlas, the race has shifted dramatically towards Trump in one week

[Tekken_Guy]

Thread from April 20:


Thread from April 30:

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Welcome to the forum

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's our typical overreactions. It hasn't been a great week or two for Biden as far as headlines go, especially with the Gaza protests relevant, but that could change to Biden's favor as quickly as it seemed to change to Trump's.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is fluid it's gonna be tied they Labor Day

[Vern]

Trump has always been favored. Atlas is just now coming around to it.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Atlas overreacts. The simple fact is this race was, is and always will be a tossup.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

*Trump coughs a little too hard in a rally*

“Biden leads forum poll 80/20

*next day Biden pauses too long in his speech*

“Trump leads forum poll 70/30”

[DrScholl]

Trump has always been favored. Atlas is just now coming around to it.

That's not even true, because in February there were at least three or four threads a week saying the race was over and Trump had already won.

[Inmate Trump]

No one can argue that polls show the race as lean Trump.

*At the very least* it’s a toss-up and it’ll come down to the same few swing states almost all of which are lean Trump.

2024 does not look good for Biden at the moment.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump has always been favored. Atlas is just now coming around to it.

This

Biden was never favoured

[omar04]

Interestingly the April 30th poll has about the same number votes for Trump and other but a third less votes for Biden and overall. So it could be that users in favor of Biden's chances vote later.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Interestingly the April 30th poll has about the same number votes for Trump and other but a third less votes for Biden and overall. So it could be that users in favor of Biden's chances vote later.

low info voters (they exist in every election LOL)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

A great example of what can so easily go wrong with polling: small and variable samples, and then treating the results as predictive of anything, rather than as very limited data sets.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are polls that show Biden ahead just stop
Marist 3 POS Biden 2

We as users Pred outcomes not individually states and the 270 blue wall is still in Biden favor that's why we still as Ds have a 303 map. It's the other Rs and indies that have below 270

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

[Tekken_Guy]

As of now Trump has more votes in the new poll than the old one.

[Devils30]

Average voters are beginning to realize how cancerous the post-Biden left is. What comes after Biden is the real problem he has and a lot of ordinary people think it will either be an incompetent Kamala Harris or someone from the squad who'll have full throttle support from the thugs protesting on campuses.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Average voters are beginning to realize how cancerous the post-Biden left is. What comes after Biden is the real problem he has and a lot of ordinary people think it will either be an incompetent Kamala Harris or someone from the squad who'll have full throttle support from the thugs protesting on campuses.

I don't think average Americans are thinking that far ahead as we might be.

[BlueSwan]

I have consistently said that Trump is the clear favourite to win basically since last october, I think, and as time has passed by I have been more and more certain of this. The more time passes, the less likely it becomes that something will significantly shift the state of the race and the state of the race is that Trump only has a slight lead nationally, but has a clear and stable lead in the swing states, much like Obama did in 2012.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I have consistently said that Trump is the clear favourite to win basically since last october, I think, and as time has passed by I have been more and more certain of this. The more time passes, the less likely it becomes that something will significantly shift the state of the race and the state of the race is that Trump only has a slight lead nationally, but has a clear and stable lead in the swing states, much like Obama did in 2012.

This 100%.

Maybe Europeans are more able to look at the race from a neutral POV as they're less emotionally invested in it, because when talking about the race, i feel like people have more of a need to defend their own candidate why they could still win etc.

And to be fair, six months is long, but i think Trump is favoured and always was since well at some point last year.

[TheTide]

It doesn't necessarily suggest that at all. It might just be that Biden had a 51% chance before and now Trump has a 51% chance.

[BlueSwan]

I have consistently said that Trump is the clear favourite to win basically since last october, I think, and as time has passed by I have been more and more certain of this. The more time passes, the less likely it becomes that something will significantly shift the state of the race and the state of the race is that Trump only has a slight lead nationally, but has a clear and stable lead in the swing states, much like Obama did in 2012.

This 100%.

Maybe Europeans are more able to look at the race from a neutral POV as they're less emotionally invested in it, because when talking about the race, i feel like people have more of a need to defend their own candidate why they could still win etc.

And to be fair, six months is long, but i think Trump is favoured and always was since well at some point last year.

Oh, just to be clear, I am VERY emotionally invested in this election, I just generally don't do hopium. I look at the facts at hand and draw the rational conclusion. The rational conclusion is that there is still 6 months to the election, but Trump is very much favoured at this point and there needs be to a real shift in sentiment for that to change and it is hard to see exactly where that shift is gonna come from (I see no evidence that the trials matter). I also think it is very silly to resort to the usual "polls 6 months out has no predictive value" because while that is true on the surface, this is absolutely NOT a normal presidential election. This is basically two pseudo-incumbents with 100% name recognition running against each other. There aren't really any unknowns or skeletons in the closet that can change things much. People KNOW that Trump is a narcissistic crook and the people who are voting for him either DO NOT CARE (your William Barr types) or are part of the brainwashed cult of personality. Biden BARELY squeeked out a victory last time around with an unusually broad coalition of people who were motivated to get Trump out of office. This time around Biden is not "likable generic D", but a deeply unpopular incumbent. You have to be on something strong to believe that the coalition that came out for Biden in 2020 is just gonna come out for him again this time around.

[2016]

Trump has always been favored. Atlas is just now coming around to it.

Trump wasn't favored until late last year.
This entire Race changed on October 7th 2023 when Hamas attacked Israel.
Biden was perceived to be weak in the aftermath unlike in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and he showed strength.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, the polling has somewhat shifted again. I know it's 6 months out and a lot can happen, but I've become somewhat more concerned lately as well. Tbh, I believe that right now, Trump is more likely to win than to lose. As much as it pains me to write this down. Especially since Biden has actually governed well over the last 3 years while Trump is a traitor indicted with 91 felony charges.

[GAinDC]

I've been on Atlas for almost 15 years and many, many election cycles. In that time, here are some of the takes that caught on here:

Romney was going to easily beat Obama in 2012
Allison Lundergan Grimes would beat Mitch McConnell in 2014
Hillary would easily win in 2016
"Resistors" would propel Beto O'Rourke to victory over Ted Cruz
Biden was gonna get the 413 map (his 2020 map + Texas, NC, Ohio and Iowa) in 2020
The Republicans were headed for a Red Wave in 2022
And last year, that Andy Beshear was "in trouble" in KY, and Brandon Pressley was going to win in MS

After all that, I've learned not to take our predictions too seriously. There's a lot of overreacting, dooming and concern trolling. At the end of the day, we're all a bunch of armchair quarterbacks.

Idk who will win this year, but I wouldn't bet any money based on fickle Atlas consensus that changes daily.

Here's what I do know:

Trump has a rock-solid base and may benefit from anti-Biden sentiment, but his legal troubles and his actions on issues like abortion and Jan 6 are extremely concerning to the type of voters he needs to win.

Meanwhile, Biden is dealing with a major schism in the Democratic Party over Israel, voters understandably have concerns about his age, and high prices continue to weigh heavily on people. However, he is an incumbent running a very disciplined campaign in a period of economic growth; history shows that will be hard to beat.

That points to a very competitive election!