All and all, it's not a bad prediction. A couple of things to consider:
In 2009 Republicans took firm control of Virginia state government. In fact every Republican running for statewide office garnered at least 60% of the vote. What's more, President Obama's poll numbers remain lackluster in the state. I think we can move it safely into the Republican column.
Lackluster approval ratings =/= "safe" Republican.
How well are the Republican governors of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin doing again?