TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[libertpaulian]

I am just not seeing this.  Even if Nashville and Memphis do what NOVA and Hampton Roads did in VA-GOV and Williamson goes the way of Chesterfield, 2/3rds of the state is still basically VA-09 and filled with diehard rural Trump supporters.  This is a harder lift than Mississippi or Louisiana IMO.

It's more urban than Alabama at least, and the events of the past week have given the Dems a prayer in that state.

[libertpaulian]

Perhaps Bredesen will be the Southern Surprise of the midterms and not Doug Jones.

[libertpaulian]

National Republicans are dropping a full load of steaming hog diarrhea on the airwaves of Tennessee:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2WMjL73b_Kw

This ad implies to me that the NRCC has polling showing Trump’s approval in TN being high. If ya high enough to warrant an ad focused on President Trump  going after the democrat, it’s prpjanly too high for said democrat to win in an inelastic red state.

Obama had above-water approval ratings in Illinois in 2014, yet Rauner ousted Quinn.

[libertpaulian]

Bredesen had better do damage control, fast:

https://freebeacon.com/politics/tennessee-dem-spokesman-f-k-reaching-trump-voters-idiots-arent-listening/

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Bredesen can't afford ANY political injuries in a state like Tennessee.

[libertpaulian]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

I think we dissected that poll a while back, haha.

[libertpaulian]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

Exactly.  It's also important to note that white evangelicals in Indiana are slightly more elastic than white evangelicals in Dixie.

In 2016, Evan Bayh got 28% of white evangelicals even while getting blown out in a 10% landslide.

[libertpaulian]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

We’re talking about a candidate who swept every county in 2006 and won by 39 points in said state, when demographics were slightly better for Dems but still very unfavorable. He has the adventage of being able to tap into a reservoir of residual goodwill/nostalgia and is uniquely suited to appeal to high propensity and center-right voters who are fine with Bill Lee but just can’t bring themselves to vote for a "shrill extremist/lunatic" over their Phil Bredesen.

I guess we’ll see on Tuesday, but I guarantee you if Blackburn actually wins by double digits on election night, then Democrats will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race.

Evan Bayh swept nearly every county in 2004.  He lost by a landslide in 2016.

[libertpaulian]

Evan Bayh also ran against a much stronger opponent in a Republican wave year, and Bredesen doesn’t have Bayh's lobbyist/residency issues that could be used against him in attack ads. Not the best comparison, to say least.

In 2004?  lol, Marvin Scott was a total joke candidate who makes Alan Keyes look like an unbeatable titan.