Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bust goes the Rick Scott bubble.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona: Emerson, Sep. 19-21, 650 registered voters

Approve 42
Disapprove 49

Too many undecided (9%) to cause me to replace the current, recent poll. It is otherwise in line with what I have on my polling map.

Arizona: NBC/Marist, Sep. 16-20, 950 adults including 763 RV and 564 LV (change from June)

Among adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+3)

Among RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (+3)

Among LV (not done in June):

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

Registered voters for the Presidency.

Florida: Quinnipiac, Sep. 20-24, 888 likely voters

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

In the Senate race, Nelson (D) leads 53-46.

Iowa has a poll out by Selzer for the Des Moines Register. Nothing said about the Presidency, but the incumbent Republican Governor is underwater. Selzer is excellent, and caught the Trump surge/Clinton collapse in Iowa that many thought was an outlier in 2016.

It is now.

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

If anyone thinks that Iowa will be 'Safe R' in 2020, think again. Selzer is an excellent pollster, and got the rightward shift of Iowa in 2014 (Ernst in 2014, Trump in 2016) with uncanny accuracy. Selzer almost certainly catches the opposite trend, too.

From the source:

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These numbers suggest a cause for the poor approval numbers of the President in Iowa. Add the numbers of people who think that things are normal and safe (17) to those who have some concerns (24) and you are close to the approval number (41 as opposed to 39 for approval); add the numbers of people who have a lot of concerns (16) to the number of people convinced that what is happening is neither normal nor safe (36) and you get a number (52) just short of the total number of those who disapprove.

34% think that America on the whole is on the right track, and 55% think that America is on the wrong track. Note that the 55% is close to total disapproval, with the 34% short of total approval. Ouch!

40% of Iowa's likely voters say that support for Donald Trump will make them less likely to vote for a political candidate, in contrast to 18% of them thinking such a cause to make them more likely to vote for a political candidate. Although 41% will not let them change their minds at all about a candidate (paraphrased from source) this disparity is likely to hurt Republicans who have any connection to Trump policies.

Finally, on the poll, favorability of Obama is at 58% (unfavorable at 38%) in contrast to that of Trump, for whom these numbers are practically inverted (41% and 56%, respectively). Favorability and approval ratings for the President have been close in most states, so I would conclude that the best way for Democrats to win Iowa's six electoral votes is to find a nominee as similar to Obama in key aspects of behavior, values, and personality. That will be tough.

I expect Joni Ernst and Donald Trump to be one-time wonders in Iowa who go down to electoral defeat together in 2020. Iowa looks to be in the tier of states that includes Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, states that barely voted for or against Trump. Recent polls suggest that those states could be drifting out of reach for him if they have not already done so.      

Iowa is the definitive agribusiness state, and the trade war could cost Iowa farmers $2.2 billion in revenues.

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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2018/09/21/trump-china-trade-war-effects-iowa-agriculture-farming-exports-tariffs-canada-pork-soybeans-steel/1368546002/

Farmers vote their pocketbooks. In most years that means that they vote Republican out of a concern for taxes, as farmers are easy to tax. But revenue losses hurt far more than any tax cuts that farmers can get. Tariffs will raise costs of farming. Lost farm revenues and higher costs will also hurt tax receipts of state and county governments. No tax cut can ever compensate for lost revenues or higher costs of production as large as those that Trump's trade war will impose.

...Oh, would I like to see polls for some states that have even more farmers as a share of the electorate. Or is it that Iowa agriculture implies lots of family farms with factory-like working conditions for farm workers who vote as if they were blue-collar workers of the 1930s?    

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another Florida: NBC/Marist, Sep. 16-20, 932 adults including 829 RV and 600 LV (change from June)

Among adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+4)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+5)

GCB: D 49 (+7), R 43 (+4)

Among LV (not done in June):

Approve 46
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 40

GCB: D 48, R 45

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Massachussets-

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 64%

Source: WBUR

[Progressive Pessimist]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

Looks like Iowa has had it.

I sure hope so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among LV:

Approve 39 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 49)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio: NBC/Marist, Sep. 16-20, 909 adults including 796 RV and 564 LV (change from June)


Among adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)


Among RV:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-2)

GCB: D 49 (+6), R 43 (+3)


Among LV (not done in June):

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 40

GCB: D 49, R 43

[Inmate Trump]

Aside from election hacking and Russian interference, how on earth can a president be this unpopular and win reelection?

[BudgieForce]

Aside from election hacking and Russian interference, how on earth can a president be this unpopular and win reelection?

Run against an equally unpopular candidate..

[pbrower2a]

Another Florida: NBC/Marist, Sep. 16-20, 932 adults including 829 RV and 600 LV (change from June)

Among adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+4)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+5)

GCB: D 49 (+7), R 43 (+4)

Among LV (not done in June):

Approve 46
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 40

GCB: D 48, R 45

I'm going with registered voters for the Presidential election, and likely voters for Senatorial and gubernatorial elections for 2018.

Massachussets-

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 64%

Source: WBUR

The recent poll with an approval of 22% was probably an outlier.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among LV:

Approve 39 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 49)

Is California going closer to American norms, or does this reflect a rightward-shift nationwide?

This is a national poll, not just California.

[pbrower2a]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among LV:

Approve 39 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 49)

Is California going closer to American norms, or does this reflect a rightward-shift nationwide?

This is a national poll, not just California.

Correction made. This is a national poll.

[Person Man]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among LV:

Approve 39 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 49)

Is California going closer to American norms, or does this reflect a rightward-shift nationwide?

This is a national poll, not just California.

Correction made. This is a national poll.

Closing in on 50% for SD.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump approvals in several "Frost Belt" states (I like this term!) from Ipsos/Reuters/UVA:

Indiana: 48% approve-51% disapprove

Michigan: 39%-59%

Ohio: 45%-54%

Pennsylvania: 44%-56%

Wisconsin: 42%-58%

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-democrats-in-decent-shape-across-the-frost-belt/

[Panda Express]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

Looks like Iowa has had it.

The stupid people of Iowa are snapping out of their Trumpian stupor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Sep. 23-25, 1500 adults including 1238 registered voters


Among adults:

Approve (-1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 38 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 20-23, 1966 registered voters

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 20 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

GCB: D 43 (nc), R 35 (-3)

[BudgieForce]

And we've reverted back to the average in both aggregates. Seems anti Trump voters stop picking up the phone after the outrage dies down.

Edit: Although the switch to LV screens is probably helping Trump.

Edit: Reuters being the most notable switch over.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Aside from election hacking and Russian interference, how on earth can a president be this unpopular and win reelection?

Run against an equally unpopular candidate..

Or find a way to make that candidate equally unpopular and coast on low expectations.

[Pericles]

Aside from election hacking and Russian interference, how on earth can a president be this unpopular and win reelection?

Run against an equally unpopular candidate..

Or find a way to make that candidate equally unpopular and coast on low expectations.

Realistically Trump won't win with a 40% approval rating. The question isn't whether he wins with that approval, it's what his approval ends up as. If he gets to 45% or 50%, he has a shot at winning, if he falls further he could be DOA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall, Sep. 17-23, 545 RV (change from last month)

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Excellent 18 (nc)
Good 19 (-1)
Fair 8 (-2)
Poor 55 (+3)

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Aside from election hacking and Russian interference, how on earth can a president be this unpopular and win reelection?

Run against an equally unpopular candidate..

Or find a way to make that candidate equally unpopular and coast on low expectations.

Realistically Trump won't win with a 40% approval rating. The question isn't whether he wins with that approval, it's what his approval ends up as. If he gets to 45% or 50%, he has a shot at winning, if he falls further he could be DOA.

He could totally win at 40%. 40% is enough that some electoral doctoring in his favor can be plausible. He's already talking about "Chinese interference". If he can rile up his gun-toting base enough, he doesn't need an outright victory.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OUCH!

Trump approval is 37/63% in Pennsylvania...

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

OUCH!

Trump approval is 37/63% in Pennsylvania...

More like 18/55. Those people in the middle just aren't paying much attention yet.

[pbrower2a]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.