Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[libertpaulian]

He'd probably have a better shot with an open seat, combined with the possibility of a poor Trump performance. I'd be in full support of him running again.

He'd have to replicate Clinton's margins in metro Atlanta and hold onto his resoectable showing (for a Dem) in rural GA, and he has a path to 50

Plus run up the margins somewhat in micro-cities like Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, and Savannah.

[libertpaulian]

Ossoff comes off as kinda Rubio-ish.

Also, is Jason Carter going to run for anything?

[libertpaulian]

Atlanta mayoral candidate Mary Norwood accuses current Mayor Kasim Reed of voter fraud in her 2009 loss to him:

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-exclusive-norwood-accuses-reed-widespread-voter-fraud-2009-contest/ni18X40T8cT6XSEI0KUQGO/

She should have spoke up then. She is trying to cause dissent because she knows Bottoms is so closely linked to Reed. Any ATLiens in here? How are you feeling about the mayoral race?

Since Evans has endorsed Bottoms and Greg Bluestein said Bottoms will officially endorse Evans later (presumably after the election) , there's another black local politician that picked her over Abrams. Kasim Reed has also implied he's supporting Evans. Not looking too good for Abrams.

At this point, I am convinced she will not receive an endorsement from any local black official. Anyone that does not endorse Evans, will simply remain neutral. The GOP is locked, stocked, and ready to go with attacking Abrams full-stop. The Democrats know she is the more vulnerable of the two.

Can Evans inspire the kind of AA, Latino, and Asian turnout necessary to flip the state or at least keep it at a loss of less than 5%?

[libertpaulian]

Can Evans inspire the kind of AA, Latino, and Asian turnout necessary to flip the state or at least keep it at a loss of less than 5%?

I don't think she will inspire Obama level turnout among minorities. I do think she will keep it close. Carter lost by 8 points in an Obama lame-duck midterm, so I definitely believe Evans can be competitive with an unpopular Republican in DC. She may be like Northam in that she is simply viewed as anti-Trump proxy and people will go vote for her for that. I think what she really needs is loads of competitive downballot races. Starting with some strong Democrat challenges in GA-06 and GA-07. There are a few State Senate and House seats that have Republican incumbents where Hillary Clinton won that could increase Democrat turnout in these areas.

Vote rich Gwinnett County is trending Democrat. Hillary broke 50 percent here. Evans can also be competitive in Cobb County, she represented Smyrna which is located here so she could reduce margins in this county. She's really going to need to appeal to suburban white women while simultaneously making sure black and Latino turnout is at least a tad better than 2014. Trump in the White House makes this easier.

One of the cornerstones of her campaign is to bring back the HOPE Scholarship. She needs to cascade across the state to every public university to make this case. From Savannah to Augusta to Carrollton to Albany to Macon and everywhere in between. These young voters will turn out for someone promising to make their full tuition free again.

I honestly thought Carter did quite okay for being in a Southern state in an Obama six-year itch, but he could have done slightly better. 

What makes Evans superior to Abrams, in your view?

[libertpaulian]

I don't begrudge her wanting that but she comes with some serious baggage and is still six months out from the gov's primary. Sounds like she's putting the cart before the horse.

Yeah, in 2L year of law school, a friend in my class and I were in moot court together.  She kept insisting that not only would she win the fall championship, but she would be chosen as the president of the moot court society.  Well, she won the championship, but she didn't get picked to succeed the then-president.

Let's hope Abrams learns from my friend.

[libertpaulian]

Who's running for LG on the Dem. side?

There are two candidates, neither have held political office.

Triana James Arnold is running. She's from Cobb County, she was crowned "Mrs. Georgia" through Today's American Woman Pageant, which is for women of all ages and sizes. She has an.... interesting video on YouTube, where she endorses Rep. Evans. She is the woman with the blonde wig.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztwISuPlQFM

There is also Sarah Riggs Amico, who is an executive chairwoman at a car hauling company and is on the board of PAWS Atlanta. Here is her introduction video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbIC7QLnoC8

At this point, I hope someone like Kasim Reed jumps in the race. He is a vigorous campaigner, and can parlay this into a 2022 Senate run if he so chooses.

Carter 2020, Reed 2022?

[libertpaulian]

Who's running for LG on the Dem. side?

There are two candidates, neither have held political office.

Triana James Arnold is running. She's from Cobb County, she was crowned "Mrs. Georgia" through Today's American Woman Pageant, which is for women of all ages and sizes. She has an.... interesting video on YouTube, where she endorses Rep. Evans. She is the woman with the blonde wig.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztwISuPlQFM

There is also Sarah Riggs Amico, who is an executive chairwoman at a car hauling company and is on the board of PAWS Atlanta. Here is her introduction video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbIC7QLnoC8

At this point, I hope someone like Kasim Reed jumps in the race. He is a vigorous campaigner, and can parlay this into a 2022 Senate run if he so chooses.

Carter 2020, Reed 2022?

The DSCC should be pounding on Sally Yates’s door for 2020. Reed, I think, would be a strong candidate for 2022, which I think is all but guaranteed to be an open seat.

I'm a bit agnostic on Yates.  I mean, sure, she's popular with #TheResistance and Women's March crowd, but does she have what it takes to form the necessary coalitions to win statewide? 

If Evans wins this November, her path to victory should be replicated.

I guess it's all up to Stacey Evans.

[libertpaulian]

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Carter, Reed, and Yates are all solid choices.

[libertpaulian]

Why don't we have polls yet?

[libertpaulian]

Senate passed the bill taking away Delta’s tax credit. No way Deal signs it. Say what you want about him but he’s never moved an inch when it comes to this stuff. Saw on Greg Bluestein’s twitter that Evans officially filed a complaint with the AG about Cagle. Wonder if anyone else on either side chimes in about it

With Amazon considering planting their second flag in Atlanta, there's no way he signs this or the gay adoption bill either.

[libertpaulian]

Gun control activist Lucy McBath, who was originally going to challenge state Rep. Sam Teasley (HD-37), will now run for the GA-06 Congressional seat: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/high-profile-gun-control-advocate-enters-georgia-6th-district-race/yR5JoktI4q7Enh41Lpk2ZL/

If she wins the primary, the Dems deserve to lose this race.

[libertpaulian]

Yeah Abrams is the better candidate lol. I don't think she's a great candidate (she's relying too much on national politics I think), but she's our best shot. The republicans running for the nomination seem to be absolutely batsh!t.

She kind of needs the National Democratic infrastructure, the Democratic establishment in our state is backing Evans because they think Abrams can’t win. It is heartening to see that Abrams outraised Evans 2-to-1 and even her $325k total from Georgia residents outdid Evans’ entire haul.

I don’t mind the National Party swooping in with resources to get black rural voters to the polls. It’s more than what the state party has been doing.

Stacey Evans seems to have run a very quiet campaign to date.  Abrams, on the other hand, seems to have a much larger profile, and also seems to have the kind of energy that's needed to pull off an upset in a liberalizing, yet still conservative, state like Georgia.

[libertpaulian]

Abrams probably killed any chance of breaking thru with whites when she proposed this.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/ga-politician-stone-mountains-confederate-carvings-should-be-removed

Wanting to alter one of the most popular attraction in the state seems so stupid.

Doug Jones got 30% of the white vote and won by 2%.  Georgia is much more minority-heavy than Alabama, so Abrams would probably need...23-25%?

[libertpaulian]

Received two emails from each Stacey today.

Abrams is asking me to come volunteer to GOTV with locations in Albany, Atlanta, Augusta, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Decatur, Dublin, East Point, Fort Valley, Jonesboro, LaGrange, Lawrenceville, Macon, McDonough, Milledgeville, Norcross, Savannah, Statesboro, and Warner Robbins.

Evans is telling me the attacks against her are Republican smears because she's the better candidate and something something Abrams cut HOPE something.

Yeah, only one candidate is serious about turning Georgia blue.

Abrams actually conveys energy and passion.  Evans, on the other hand, barely acts like she even exists on the political front.

[libertpaulian]

Since the DAMN SOS doesn't have one statewide absentee file available for 2014 and since I can't find anything to properly merge 159 spreadsheets, I haven't went through the data between the two cycles to compare statewide.

But...here's a teaser in early votes:

2014-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 8019

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	5432	67.7
DEM	1983	24.8
NP	604	7.5

2018-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 16538

Ballot	Votes	%
DEM	9281	56.1
GOP	6585	39.8
NP	672	4.1

Holy ish...Gwinnett is the new Fairfax.

[libertpaulian]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

If Georgia is flipping, that means it's a Democratic rout nationwide.

[libertpaulian]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

If Georgia is flipping, that means it's a Democratic rout nationwide.

Not necessarily, it's quite possible that GA is moving to even PVI overnight like VA did. 

No matter the national mood, GA flipping this year would be analogous to VA 2005/2006.

[libertpaulian]

One fun fact I just observed: the 50 counties above have done a mirror flip compared to 2014:

2014 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Republican EV: 55%
Democratic EV: 45%

2018 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Democratic EV: 55%
Republican EV: 45%

It's worth noting that this analysis should be considered alongside the fact that GA Democrats had no contested gubernatorial primary in 2014. We would expect some general statewide rebound simply because of a contested top-ticket race in 2018, but the question is: how much of the rebound is attributable to that? Furthermore, how much may be the result of increased ED vote cannibalization by Democrats? I have a hard time believing even both factors combined are responsible for a 20-point shift.

To be fair, it's not like the Georgia republican governor primary was seriously contested.

You did have a very competitive U.S. Senate primary on the GOP side in 2014 though

An 8% margin of victory isn't THAT large considering 2014 was an R wave year.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats: Which Stacey do you prefer and why?

Voted Evans.  She would run the stronger race in November, though I doubt she will win tonight.

lol, seriously?  Her campaign is based on a one-trick pony issue, and you barely know she even exists (as a human being), let alone that she's running for the highest office in the state.

[libertpaulian]

All the griping about Evan's formula for winning being outdated and such. What will people say when Abrams loses by close to double digits? Dems must breakthrough with whites in order to win there's no other way.

Blame Evans for running a one-issue campaign and for not having a larger presence in the campaign. 

Abrams MORE than earned this.

[libertpaulian]

I admittedly don’t know much about this race and haven’t read a lot of this thread but Dems are blowing heir chances by nominating far left candidates in lean red-purple states. Maybe Abrams is good for Hawaii or something but in Georgia, Evans was the right call.

All things being equal I think the moderate is the better choice but especially in this case

Many of Sherrod Brown's views are as left-wing as Abrams', yet he's been elected statewide four times in the "lean red-purple" state of Ohio.  Oh, and as a note...Ohio is whiter than Georgia, AND Georgia voted to the LEFT of Ohio in 2016.

[libertpaulian]

Cagle & Kemp continue to fight over which of them loves guns more:

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/new-gun-fight-erupts-race-for-gop-race-for-governor/1OpxqSSMn3fYdeFxMCOeEL/

This is beginning to feel like the Alabama primary in which Moore and Brooks had to out-conservative each other during the runoff while Jones was out on the campaign trail making an identity for himself.

[libertpaulian]

Given that both candidates seem to want to out-right-wing the other, it's hard to tell which one gives Ms. Abrams the advantage.

[libertpaulian]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

The outrage centered on him pointing a gun at a teenager (this was immediately post-Parkland) and in the second ad there was hullabaloo over him saying he was going to use his pick up truck to round up illegals. It was around the same time as State Sen. Michael Williams’ deportation bus fiasco* so it received pushback.

*Deportation Bus ad:

https://youtu.be/5Ktq183lSWk

Also Kemp's ads with the teenager are just strange and silly more than anything.

Honestly, I don't really see the outrage.  It's a combination of three major aspects of Southern culture: 1) masculinity, 2) chivalry, and of course, 3) guns.

[libertpaulian]

Stacey Abrams winning would immediately vault her into contention for 2024/2028.

Wow, you finally post something that makes sense.