UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Lib Dems still remain a powerful 'not Labour/not Tory' choice for many voters.

But do they? For the most part LibDem ministers sound no different to Tory ones, and in terms of media profile it is only ministers that they have. Well, with the exception of the increasingly pathetic Simon Hughes, and his public vacillations on seemingly everything are unlikely to have the sort of positive impact that he presumably assumes likely. What the LibDems did by going into coalition with the Tories in the way that they did (ministers in every department rather than concentrations in certain areas) was change their role within the political system dramatically. They can't play the role of generic protest choice any more, they can't claim to represent anything radically different to the two mass parties and an end has probably come to representing themselves essentially different things in different parts of the country without absurdity. Their local government base is probably going to be annihilated in most major local authorities over the next few years as the rule of anti-government protest kicks in (and no amount of pounding the pavements looking out for dog sh!t can stop that. Plenty of decent 'local champion' type Labour councillors lost 1997-2009 and plenty of the same type  of councillor - though Tory - lost 1980-1996), something that will have consequences, though basically unpredictable ones.

Now, all of this doesn't mean that they're doomed to disappear down the plughole, but it does mean that they'll have to seriously reconsider what they are actually for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thought they were the SaLaDs?

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Look, Clegg gives Cameron a sizeable Commons majority of the sort he wouldn't (and won't) win on his own and a precious edge in the Lords. Why dump him? Think logically!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who did the poll? Of course the answer to 'where are these extra votes coming from?' could easily be 'people who didn't vote last time' (perhaps combined with people who did vote last time not voting this time), although that would be a massive increase even taking that into account.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, right. lol.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Questions like that always end up with lower numbers than 'who would you vote for' questions. Note that the composition of the current government is given 41% but that the combined vote for its parties is 50.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Curious. When Gallup destroyed their credibility here, they stopped working here. Angus Reid seem to have adopted a different approach.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.nextleft.org/2011/01/cameron-no-longer-more-centrist-than.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. I suppose the "voters" columns are the self-placements of voters, while the other columns are aggregate placements by voters of all parties? Would be interesting to see party's and leader's placements by party support.

Yeah, that's right. As for the rest... http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Prospect-Left-Right-310111.pdf

Though YouGov's internals are often seriously screwy because of the way they do polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reporting this particular poll here because it represents a minor milestone of sorts...

Labour 45%, Con 35%, LDem 9% (YouGov/Sunday Times)

Of course these are fantasy numbers, like all polls this far out. And from a semi-tracker-whatever as well. But, hey.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very different figures than from other polls recently, not that there have been many. Should probably go in the thread for the election as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently YouGov give us an eleven point lead. A bit like that cream that comes in squirty can thing; pleasant enough, but you know it's artificial.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's particularly curious is that it's not that different from their last one; for some reason ICM are showing a subtly different landscape to the other companies (which is more interesting than the ups and downs all polling firms will inevitably show from time to time). Who's right?

(of course if the last General Election is anything to go by, the answer to that is 'no one').

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People read manifestos?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People read manifestos?

Alright, anyone who voted for this, this or even this.

Ah, well, yes. But then those still pledged to voting LibDem generally didn't do so for those reasons. The people that did are the ones who've gone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The key thing is that the 'bias' in favour of Labour isn't quite what people (especially Tories) think it is. At the last election, for example, Labour took about 40% of seats on about 30% of the vote, the Tories about 47% on about 37%. The 'bias' is that it is much easier for Labour to win a majority of seats, largely because of the strong relationship between patterns of class, turnout and Labour voting; it has nothing to do with the size of constituencies and is (in any case) not the sort of 'bias' that ought to be 'corrected', even if it were possible to do something about it. In my admittedly partisan opinion, anyway.

There's also the strangely ignored fact that since 1997 the LibDems have represented large parts of what was once post-war Tory bedrock, while Labour still has a near monopoly of representation in its post-war strongholds. Of course if current polls are even vaguely predictive, then that will cease to be an issue at the next election, no matter the boundaries.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And that is what my question was about: To what degree will redistricting affect the Labour strongholds in the North in England and in Wales? Will it make it significantly more difficult for Labour to achieve a majority?

Won't find that out until we get a look at the new maps, basically. But it would be unlikely to be significantly harder unless the maps were drawn with that in mind; more likely is that it will be a little more difficult.

As to specifics, Labour won't be the only party that will lose seats in Wales as a result of the slashing of the number of seats (which is actually also the ending of a traditional constitutional 'protection' of Wales as a small but distinct nation), but because we hold 19 out of 23 seats in South Wales (20 out of 24 if you include Llanelli) we'll be hit harder. The same will be true of some other industrial areas in England, like the Black Country.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, ICM have been showing a consistently different picture for quite a while now. Significant? Probably not. Brutal reality is that the political situation we have now is completely new and untested so, to an even greater extent than normal, far more of it is guesswork than any company would be prepared to admit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Posted simply because it's... er... different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course he does have image problems, but those questions were specifically designed to produce a certain set of headlines.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone, inside or outside the party, still support Ed? He needs to go.

I think that most people in the Labour Party understand that while Ed Miliband is not ideal, the brutal factional infighting that would be necessary to force him out would be immensely damaging. It was that, after all, that knocked us out in the 1950s and 1980s. It's difficult to win an election if you spend all of your time kicking the sh!t out of fellow comrades.

Not only that, but it isn't as though there's an obvious alternative (certainly there's no one who could orchestrate the process and emerge unsoiled at the end), so it isn't as though there would really be any point in trying. Not only that, but it isn't as though a plausible pretext exists; Miliband is scandal free, for one thing (which is also why this is a matter of a forced exit. He doesn't seem to be the resigning type). And then while the Party's poll ratings aren't brilliant, they're basically alright (remember that even the worse polls, such as the one you're highlighting, show a significant increase in support from the last election). Moreover, its electoral performance under his leadership has been pretty good - particularly given the fact that he can hardly be blamed for the principle exception to that.

Opposition sucks, of course. And it would probably suck a little less if the leadership spoke with a stronger voice (and I mean that collectively; the ShadCab need to be perhaps a little louder), and if that stronger voice used clear language. One thing that can be absolutely assured to make it worse, though, would be another televised civil war.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The only surprise about the obvious story is that it's taken so long, perhaps.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

23% other in the list vote?

Er... alcohol?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's more that people don't entirely understand what the regional ballot is for, so sometimes you see odd numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's still vaguely remarkable to see polls showing support for the death penalty at sub 50%, isn't it?