Ireland 2009

[Hash]

Lech Walesa, who supports Libertas, has called for a YES vote to Lisbon. What a joke he is nowadays.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In my local area Glencullen Labour actually outpoled FG by .1%. But due to awful vote management/strong personal vote they will probably end up with only one seat, compared to two with FG and one FF.

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Overall for DL/R it's FG 34.1% LAB 26.4% FF 16.7% OTH 14.3% GP 5.9% SF 2.7%. So far 5 elected; 2 FG 2 LAB 1 IND. A Candidate for "People Before Profit" (ie. the Socialist Workers Party) is likely to be elected in Ballybrack - oh the joys! Though that's somewhat surprising to me given that that is the most working class (or rather least middle class) part of DL/R. Two of the Electoral Divisions still to report mind.

The Hard-Left doing very well in North Dublin (In Fingal and the Inner City regions) it must be said.

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	2nd Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	7,711	(+72)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,461	(+22)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	4,931	(+5)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,780	(+10)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,512	(+29)
David Geary (Grn)	829	(+10)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	636	(+22)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	528	(+9)
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-	(-203)

   
Steenson eliminated.

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	3rd Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	7,862	(+151)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,488	(+27)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,008	(+77)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,902	(+122)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,526	(+14)
David Geary (Grn)	849	(+20)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	676	(+40)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-	(-528)
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Talbot eliminated.

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	4th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	8,105	(+243)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,578	(+90)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,073	(+65)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,990	(+88)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,564	(+38)
David Geary (Grn)	893	(+44)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-	(-676)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Geary eliminated.

[Hash]

What is the quota in Dublin Central?

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	5th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	8,341	(+236)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,737	(+159)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,338	(+265)
Christy Burke (SF)	4,042	(+52)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,621	(+57)
David Geary (Grn)	-	(-893)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Ahern eliminated.

[Јas]

What is the quota in Dublin Central?

Sorry, should of put that in earlier.
It's 14,207.

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	6th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	9,352	(+1,011)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	7,412	(+675)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,774	(+436)
Christy Burke (SF)	4,420	(+378)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-	(-3,621)
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Burke eliminated

[Hash]

Transfers from the Greenie to the Failer have been pretty bad for coalition partners... Are the remaining Greenie voters opposed to the coalition?

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	7th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	11,062	(+1,710)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	7,880	(+468)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	6,537	(+763)
Christy Burke (SF)	-	(-4,420)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Bacik eliminated

[Јas]

Transfers from the Greenie to the Failer have been pretty bad for coalition partners... Are the remaining Greenie voters opposed to the coalition?

The polling evidence has suggested that for some time now.
These elections should help underline that.

[Hash]

ElectionsIreland reports only 4 seats in the local election results. Is that really all that's been declared?

[Јas]

ElectionsIreland reports only 4 seats in the local election results. Is that really all that's been declared?

No. The latest is as below.
ElectionsIreland is an excellent site, but I'm afraid they're take a while to get all the local stuff up.

FG 69
Lab 41
FF 30
SF 12
Grn 0
Oth 26

705 remaining

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/local/

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	8th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	13,739	(+2,677)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	10,198	(+2,318)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	-	(-6,537)
Christy Burke (SF)	-
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   

O'Sullivan elected without reaching the quota.


New composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	75
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6	(+1)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

Government (FF, Green, PD + Indies) = 86
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF + Indies) = 79
Government Majority of 7

[Democratic Hawk]

TV3 report that following these election results, Enda Kenny will be putting forward a motion of no confidence in the Government next week.

I'm not surprised given how they'd vote in a general [change on 2007]

FG 37 (+10)
FF 21 (-21)
LAB 21 (+10)
SF 9 (+2)
Gre 3 (-2)
Ind/Others 10 (+1)

What's the likelihood of a motion of no confidence passing given a government majority of 7?

[Јas]

What's the likelihood of a motion of no confidence passing given a government majority of 7?

Negligible - the only semi-plausible scenario is if the Greens revolt, but that seems incredibly unlikely, given that they're today watching nearly all their council seats disappear.

By Irish standards, 7 is not necessarily all that small of a majority.
It could though be shaved further before the year is out. If Pat Gallagher (FF-Donegal SW) is elected for FF in the European Elections in North-West (counting due to begin properly tomorrow morning), it would cause a by-election which in the circumstances may be unwinable and so 7 becomes 5.

It's also thought that Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW) wants to be Ireland's next European Commissioner - the only realistic shot she has of extending her political career beyond the lifetime of this Dáil. That position comes up for filling in the Autumn. It would though leave a certain by-election defeat for the Government and so potentially 5 would become 3, and then we're at the races...


Kenny doesn't expect to win the motion on Tuesday. He's just using the drubbing to further rattle the Greens and the Government supporting Independents.

[Kevinstat]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	8th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	13,739	(+2,677)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	10,198	(+2,318)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	-	(-6,537)
Christy Burke (SF)	-
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   

O'Sullivan elected without reaching the quota.

Wouldn't the quota be considered at this point to be 11,969 (50% + 1 (or technically + 1/2) of the non-exausted, non-spoiled ballots in the 8th count).  If these same results by party occured in Kerry South in the next general election, with one candidate running for each party (substitute "Ind Gregoryite" for "Ind Healy-Rea-ite" - and yes I know they're not the same, with Healy-Rea supporting the Government while Tony Gregory never did in this Dáil at least) with Ceann Comhairle John O'Donoghue being automatically returned (so the constituency would be a functional 2-seater as is likely to happen), would Healy-Rea or his prodigy be declared elected as a result of the 6th count (or as a result of the 3rd count if the bottom-four candidates were excluded in one go, as a result of whichever count the Fianna Fáil candidate's vote was redistributed) when he had more than a third of the non-exausted ballots in that count but less than a third of the total 1st count vote?  It probably wouldn't affect the count in this case, as his/her surplus if the quota was deemed to be 8,987 (one vote more than one third of the non-exhausted ballots in the 6th (or 3rd) count) would not be enough to push the Shinner over the Labourite candidate even if it all went to the Shinner so his/her surplus would probably remain undistributed until after the Sinn Féin 6th count vote was redistributed, by which time the Healy-Rae-ite's vote would be greater than one third of the 1st count vote and the next count would have his or her surplus distributed either way.  I imagine that surplus would be 2,568 (or 2,569 if he or she was to be brought down to exactly a third of the 7th count vote rather than a third + 1), rather than only 1,591 or 1,591 1/3 (the 1st count quota in this case being 9,471).

[Kevinstat]

New composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	75
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6	(+1)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

Government (FF, Green, PD + Indies) = 86
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF + Indies) = 79
Government Majority of 7

Have the PDs not finished their dissolution?  I read somewhere in May that it was expected to be finished later in that month.  Also, which 3 Indies (besides the two ex-PDs if they are indeed ex-PDs and are Independents as I've read they both will be) are considered to support the Government?  Jackie Healy Rae, Michael Lowry and Jim McDaid?  That's what ElectionsIreland.org has in their Changes during 30th Dáil page (which will probably be updated soon to reflect yesterday's by-elections), and that may be where you're getting your data from (no complaints there, as I've had e-mail correspondence with the person whose site that is and he seems very knowledgeble).

[Јas]

Wouldn't the quota be considered at this point to be 11,969 (50% + 1 (or technically + 1/2) of the non-exausted, non-spoiled ballots in the 8th count).

The quota is always regarded as fixed.
In a by-election, with only one seat up for grabs, however, the whole idea of a quota is pretty irrelevant, as it is, in effect, an IRV election.

 If these same results by party occured in Kerry South in the next general election, with one candidate running for each party (substitute "Ind Gregoryite" for "Ind Healy-Rea-ite" - and yes I know they're not the same, with Healy-Rea supporting the Government while Tony Gregory never did in this Dáil at least) with Ceann Comhairle John O'Donoghue being automatically returned (so the constituency would be a functional 2-seater as is likely to happen), would Healy-Rea or his prodigy be declared elected as a result of the 6th count (or as a result of the 3rd count if the bottom-four candidates were excluded in one go, as a result of whichever count the Fianna Fáil candidate's vote was redistributed) when he had more than a third of the non-exausted ballots in that count but less than a third of the total 1st count vote?  It probably wouldn't affect the count in this case, as his/her surplus if the quota was deemed to be 8,987 (one vote more than one third of the non-exhausted ballots in the 6th (or 3rd) count) would not be enough to push the Shinner over the Labourite candidate even if it all went to the Shinner so his/her surplus would probably remain undistributed until after the Sinn Féin 6th count vote was redistributed, by which time the Healy-Rae-ite's vote would be greater than one third of the 1st count vote and the next count would have his or her surplus distributed either way.  I imagine that surplus would be 2,568 (or 2,569 if he or she was to be brought down to exactly a third of the 7th count vote rather than a third + 1), rather than only 1,591 or 1,591 1/3 (the 1st count quota in this case being 9,471).

See above; the quota is regarded as fixed from the 1st count (unless I suppose a recount found more votes or changed the number of spoiled ballots or somesuch). Persons would only be deemed elected where they surpass the declared quota or where they cannot be overtaken.

[Јas]

Have the PDs not finished their dissolution?  I read somewhere in May that it was expected to be finished later in that month.

Hasn't happened yet, as far as I'm aware. The formal winding-up has been delayed a couple of times now, IIRC. (Not that it is of any practical difference whether it is wound up or not.)

Also, which 3 Indies (besides the two ex-PDs if they are indeed ex-PDs and are Independents as I've read they both will be) are considered to support the Government?  Jackie Healy Rae, Michael Lowry and Jim McDaid?

Yes. Healy-Rae and Lowry made a deal with the Government after the General and have continued to vote with the Government since.

McDaid is more of a grey-area. He abstained on a vote to withdraw financial support from provision of the HPV vaccine to teenage girls, last November and so was expelled from the parliamentary party. His votes though continue to be cast in support of the Government.

[Kevinstat]

Thanks for the explanation, Jas.  I can also see how some might think it worth noting that more voters either ranked Donoghue over O'Sullivan or didn't rank either of them than ranked O'Sullivan over Donoghue, making Sullivan arguably less than a majority winner even in the final count.  I would calculate the percentages in each count to add up to 100%, making the final count result a 57.4% to 42.6% win for O'Sullivan.

Thanks also for the clarification of the Progressive Democrats' status and which Independent TDs support the Government.

[Јas]

no problem

[Јas]

Looks like quite a few count centres are calling it a night, quite a few others look like they're not stopping yet.
I'm going to adopt the strategy of the former.

Before I do, the latest from the County and City Council Elections...
409 of 883 seats declared

Fine Gael	158	(Won 293 seats in 2004)
Fianna Fáil	88	(302)
Labour	84	(101)
Sinn Féin	25	(54)
Greens	1	(18)
Ind/Other	53	(115)

[minionofmidas]

YOU FORGOT TO LIST THE NO. OF EXHAUSTED VOTES AT EACH COUNT!

For the record, they were

24 out of 203
77 out of 528
108 out of 676
124 out of 893
1121 out of 3621
1479 out of 4420
1542 out of 6537

That such a lot of FF and SF voters exhaust their ballots is unsurprising... bit surprised at the high number of Labour voters to have no preference between Donoghue and O'Sullivan, though.