JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.
And if the House is just short of a supermajority, Edwards can prevent African American legislators (who make up the vast majority of the Democratic caucus) from joining Republicans by using the potential for a second black majority (or influence) district,, which the Republican plan would never had.
