Dems Taking the House?

[WMS]

I lived in that CD for over 15 years (moved in 2001) and I think the incumbent is unbelievably vulnerable given the length of time she has held the seat. Her opponent is no liberal Democrat (he was a Republican until the abortion issue made him decide to switch parties 20 years ago) and he is currently the President pro tem of the NM Senate. If he can raise the $$$ he has a great chance to unseat her. He only lost last time because of the overwhelming Republican numbers in the absentee ballots.

Being the poster from the district who said the Dems aren't gonna take the district...I still stand by that prediction. Yes, Heather Wilson is no Steve Schiff (who took a highly competitive district and punked the Dems in every race after the first one) but she's been strong enough to gain % every election. As for Richard Romero, her opponent...if he couldn't pull it off in 02, when the Greens finally stopped running spoiler candidates, he won't do it in 04. And being pro-choice is not necessarily a positive in this district - as I posted in another thread some time back, the usually Democratic 'Old' Hispanic voters here are more Populist than Liberal - there are definitely social conservative strains in the population (see the numbers on gay marriage I posted in some thread a while back - there isn't even a majority for civil unions, much less gay marriage).

And the overwheming edge in absentee ballots will continue this year as well - for those of you not from NM, starting in about 94 the Reps shifted to massive absentee balloting following a change in the state law in order to 'lock in' Rep votes ahead of Election Day. It has worked very well for them, and as I have also stated somewhere else the Dems, instead of copying it, have spent the last 10 years whining about it and trying to change the law (which they finally did in 2003 once a Dem was governor again). But I expect the Reps to hold their edge - they are very good about voting, whereas the Dems have a considerable number of 'on paper only' voters (go read Vorlon's posts on registered vs. likely voters for the reasons for that) and even given that Dem candidates are so popular in Dem-controlled counties that the dead rise out of their graves to go vote for them it's not enough in NM-01.

Adding to that is, IMHO, the slow decrease in Dem registration and especially in voting tendencies in CD-01 (back in 2001 the vote tendencies were 50-50 while the Dems held the registration edge by a fair margin) will gradually hamper Dem efforts. In Albuquerque (the heart of CD-01) I have noticed that the older Dem areas have lost population while the newer marginal and Rep areas have gained...according to a City study I found it is because people moved from multi-family housing (read: apartments, townhouses, etc.) in the old areas to single-family homes in the newer areas...and apparently they have become more conservative in the process, judging by the registration and voting numbers in the new growth precincts. This process continues today...

If Romero had run in 98, he might have won...but not now. I was actually surprised by how solid Wilson's margin was in 02 but she appears to have won the Decline-To-State voters and incumbency counts...and on a final note: for such a competitive district the Reps sure have found ways to hold on to it for a loooooooooooong time!

[WMS]

The Albuquerque suburbs are not developed enough to start liberalizing.  The age of a suburb in the current day determines its liberal tendency.  The older a suburb, the more liberal it is.  New suburbs include people who are worried about taxes and excessive government spending since they have money but haven't had it long enough to start feeling guilty about it.  The moderate republican areas will become increasingly liberal as time passes.  The Chicago suburbs seems to be retaining conservatism a bit longer than other areas, the middle suburbs IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-13, WI-01, and IN-02 are a bit more conservative than the middle suburbs of NYC, DC, or LA.  The whiteness may be a major contributor to the moderation of the pace there though.  In Albuquerque, the rate of LA relative to the cities growth is probably a good model.

Hmmm...due to aggressive annexing by Albuquerque, you don't have many real 'suburbs'. But it's true that the areas around Albuquerque - Rio Rancho and Placitas in the north, Los Ranchos de Albuquerque in the center, the East Mountain Communities in the east, and Belen, Los Lunas, and areas surrounding them in the south - have trended Republican to varying extents. And the cultural conservatism of NM may counteract the liberalization to an extent - rich liberals tend to live in the Downtown-Nob Hill areas (look at a map of Albuquerque and it's pretty much the area a few blocks north and south of Central Avenue, from the river almost all the east to the mountains...) in Albuquerque, or else move to Santa Fe and Taos. And could you please clarify your last sentence...I don't (yawn) think I'm understanding it at the moment...

[WMS]

I'm saying that the Albuquerque suburbs will follow a similar liberalization trend to those of LA, w.r.t. the growth of the subrubs of course.

Well, it hasn't happened yet...Rio Rancho has made Sandoval County more conservative, and Valencia County is becoming much less Democratic/liberal. I guess we'll find out...

[WMS]

WMS- the one thing that will save Heather is the fact that she and Pete have brought more bogus govenment jobs to NM. I lived in Albuquerque for 15 years and while I loved living there for the climate and the lovely surroundings, I worked in the private sector and it was tough! There is as much opportunity in Mississippi! I still believe Romero has a shot.

Yep, they're awfully good at bringing home the bacon...and boy, does NM suck off the government's teats! Most money per capita of any state! Soooooooooooooeeeeee! Ah, Albuquerque has kept growing, you know...a bit more infill these days, what with the damn socialists on the City Council, but still growing. Yes, Albuquerque has a good climate (if you like dry) and it is pretty (just ignore all the beer bottles tossed on the sides of every road), but as you've pointed out it comes with a price. The NM private sector really, truly, sucks the big one...it is NOT a business-friendly environment. I bet Mississippi actually has more opportunity for entrepreneurs! Well, Romero may have a shot...but I think Heather will win again. If Romero had run in 1998...