DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[DavidB.]

Turnout at 4 was 62.7%. Respect.

[Diouf]

DPP's decline has been quite extraordinary. They were quite stable for a long while at 17%, but have seen a steep decline since January. It is hard to point to one specific trigger. Some things were already happening when they were stable at 17%. Forging a closer bond to the Social Democrats, perhaps legitimizing their new tougher immigration policy, New Right stealing some of their voters, cases about misuse of EU funds, and disagreements on economic policy with the government.
In the new year, the Social Democrats launched their new proposal for early retirement for some groups, which made that subject very important. Perhaps this made many of their voters think of the whole term, and become dissatisfied that the party hadn't done more to help worn-down workers. Some weeks later, Rasmus Paludan started getting a lot of publicity for his Quran shows, and very quickly made his party eligible and took a further share of the DPP vote. And then perhaps with the election getting closer, many of their 2015 voters are looking back at the whole term, and deeming the party to have carried through too few of its social policies. And since the number of asylum seekers have dropped quite a lot since the EU-Turkey agreement, immigration as a topic has dropped in salience. Instead other issues have become importance. On welfare spending and retirement, Social Democrats have a stronger appeal now, and on climate, they have quite little to say.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Looking at the most recent Gallup poll of the Faroes, pro-unionist parties could take both seats.

[Diouf]

The polling average of the last polls from each of the seven pollsters (Megafon, Greens, Voxmeter, Epinion, Gallup, YouGov, Norstat).

Social Democrats 26.6%
Social Liberals 7.7%
Conservatives 5.4%
New Right 3.3%
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0.5%
SPP 7.8%
Liberal Alliance 3.0%
Christian Democrats 1.8%
DPP 10.3%
Tough Line 2.1%
Liberals 19.8%
Red-Green Alliance 8.3%
Alternative 3.1%

I have not made seat calculations since it is unclear from the national average, whether some of the parties can win constituency seats or beat the vote ratio in 2/3 regions and thereby enter parliament anyway.

Social Democrats won 26.3% in 2015, so a status quo is basically expected. In such a case, one would expect losses in Copenhagen, Aarhus and perhaps Odense and Aalborg, and gains in smaller towns.
Social Liberals and SPP both look likely to make significant increases after their big losses in 2015. For the Red-Green Alliance, the campaign seems a bit like in 2015. Before the campaign and early in it, they looked likely to make a strong increase, but they have faded throughout the campaign. In the end, they might only make a small increase or even status quo. So their potential status as biggest party in Copenhagen might not come to fruition.
It seems fair to say that five parties are close around the threshold. New Right in the best place at 3.3%. All polls have them over the 2% limit. However, four of seven have them between 2 and 3%, while YouGov have them all the way up at 4.7%, so quite some variance. The Alternative is also above 2% in all polls, being between 2.5% and 3.5% in 6/7 polls. Liberal Alliance has had a worringly continued decline, but is above the treshold in all polls. All polls have them between 2.4% and 3.6%. Tough Line is at 2.1% in the average with 4/7 polls seeing them above 2%. Christian Democrats are only at 2% in one poll, but in the six others they are between 1.7-1.9%. And they know that a result like that could be enough in Western Jutland.
Klaus Riskær Pedersen is far from the treshold in all polls.
DPP has declined all the way down to 10.3% in the average, while the Liberals might just beat their lacklustre 2015 result (19.5%) based on this average.

I voted for Liberal minister of Immigration Inger Støjberg.

[jaichind]

I assuming voting ends 8pm followed by exit poll ?

[Diouf]

Looking at the most recent Gallup poll of the Faroes, pro-unionist parties could take both seats.

Just as it seemed that the centre-right Union Party would be quite certain of a seat, a new poll suggested they would only finish 3rd. Here the pro-Union Social Democrats was first on 25.5%, the centre-right pro-independence People's Party at 24.3%, and the only the Union Party in third at 24.0%. The pro-independence left-wing Republic at 21.3%.
However, another poll from the same day still showed the Union Party ahead as a certain first on 27.6%, with Social Democrats in second at 23.4%, People's Party at 22.2% and Republic at 19.1%.

[Diouf]

I assuming voting ends 8pm followed by exit poll ?

Correct.

Link to state broadcaster DR here: https://www.dr.dk/live/nyheder/live/2872093

Official results will come in here: https://kmdvalg.dk/Main/Home/FV

Both DR and TV2 will make an exit poll at 20.00. Results from the tiniest polling places will start to come in quite quickly. And when the real results start coming in, they will usually switch to a prognosis of the end result which will then be adjusted as more and more results are known.

[Diouf]

All parties have their main election night celebration in Copenhagen as party leaders meet towards the end of the evening to a TV round with the party leaders.

Liberals, Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberal Alliance, DPP, Tough Line and Klaus Riskær Pedersen all have their major election night parties at Christiansborg, the parliament building.
SPP is celebrating at Borups Højskole, a folk high school with focus on art and culture.
Conservatives is celebrating at Børsen, the historic stock exchange building where Danish Chamber of Commerce now have their HQ.
Red-Green Alliance is celebrating at Vega. It was originally known as the People's House and was used to celebrations and concerts for the workers' movement. It went bankrupt in the 90es, and was rejuvenated as the concert house Vega.
Alternative is celebrating at the Circus Building. It was used for circus performances until 1990, but since then it has been used to e.g. musicals, ballet, conferences and concerts.
New Right is celebrating at DGI-byen, a 1999 building owned by DGI (Danish Gymnastics and Sports Associations) and it includes sports, spa, restaurant, hotel and conference facilities.
Christian Democrats is celebrating at their Copenhagen HQ.

[jaichind]

if A does well expected and recaptures power should not this show a path for the various Socialists parties in Europe a way to win back votes that have drifted toward populist Right parties over the last decade ?

[Diouf]

I have made calculations of how close the areas were to the national result in 2015 on party level.

Top 5 Nomination districts, closest to the national result
Holbæk (Zealand)
Randers South (Eastern Jutland)
Roskilde (Zealand)
Assens (Funen)
Middelfart (Funen)

Top 5 nomination districts, furthest away from the national result
Nørrebro (Copenhagen)
Vesterbro (Copenhagen)
Indre by (Copenhagen)
Bispebjerg (Copenhagen)
Østerbro (Copenhagen)

Top 5 polling places, closest to the national result
Sabro-Korsvejskolen,Sabro (Århus Vest, Eastern Jutland)
Vipperød (Holbæk, Zealand)
Hornslet (Djurs, Eastern Jutland)
Nyråd (Vordingborg, Zealand)
Ringsted Nørretorv (Ringsted, Zealand)

Top 5 polling places, furthest from the national result
Nordvest (Nørrebro, Copenhagen)
Syd (Nørrebro, Copenhagen)
Nord (Nørrebro, Copenhagen)
Vest (Nørrebro, Copenhagen)
Øst (Nørrebro, Copenhagen)

[DavidB.]

if A does well expected and recaptures power should not this show a path for the various Socialists parties in Europe a way to win back votes that have drifted toward populist Right parties over the last decade ?

Yes, which is why this election is more closely followed than usual in many Western European countries: a good result for the Social Democrats has broader implications for the way their counterparts across the continent could find the way up again.

[Oryxslayer]

if A does well expected and recaptures power should not this show a path for the various Socialists parties in Europe a way to win back votes that have drifted toward populist Right parties over the last decade ?

Yes, which is why this election is closely followed in many Western European countries: a good result for the Social Democrats has broader implications for the way their counterparts across the continent could find the way up again.

I would disagree though, because like everything, comparisons between countries rarely work. Scandinavia has the Block system which allows for the big parties to take various positions and have the minors plug up the holes. So the Social Dems can go anti-migrant and parties like the red-greens can still hold onto the urban woke leftist vote. In countries that lack the block phenomenon, the SocDem parties are getting torn precisely because they cannot hold on to the the new generation of woke environmental/socially liberal leftists and the old generation of union/working class redistributionist leftists at the same time. In scandinavia, this problem simply doesn't exist to the level it does elsewhere because you can have a two parties for the two groups who work under one banner.

[Diouf]

if A does well expected and recaptures power should not this show a path for the various Socialists parties in Europe a way to win back votes that have drifted toward populist Right parties over the last decade ?

This will certainly be discussed widely in these circles. There are several aspects to this. One is that the strategy needs an electoral system, where the Social Democrats can live with winning votes from right-wing parties while leaking votes to the alternative left. Even to the degree that they could lose votes overall. The strategy also requires that the Social Democrats can maintain good enough relations to the alternative left, that they will support them in some way and allow them to govern and carry out the tough migration policies with other parties (or get support from populist right itself). This part is of course still unresolved in Denmark, even after we get the result tonight. We will see the first sign of this in the government formation proces, but it will be a constant theme.
Also, there could be other aspects that should be a part of this strategy as well. Not only a tougher immigration policy, but also an economic policy with trustworthy promises of more welfare spending.

[Diouf]

At 18.00, turnout was 74.6%, compared to 70.3% at the same time in 2015. Still, since many will have voted earlier today, I don't know whether the final turnout will end up much higher than in 2015. I think it doesn't look like there are that many people at the polling places in TV, but it can be hard to judge.

[jaichind]

I assuming voting ends 8pm followed by exit poll ?

Correct.

Link to state broadcaster DR here: https://www.dr.dk/live/nyheder/live/2872093

Official results will come in here: https://kmdvalg.dk/Main/Home/FV

Both DR and TV2 will make an exit poll at 20.00. Results from the tiniest polling places will start to come in quite quickly. And when the real results start coming in, they will usually switch to a prognosis of the end result which will then be adjusted as more and more results are known.

Thanks the live stream works in the US just like 2015.  I wish I could say the same for BBC where I have to resort to VPN to see live stream sometimes.

[Diouf]

The three thresholds for being eligible for compensatory seats (i.e. entering parliament) in 2015.
What the thresholds will be in votes this time will of course depend on the turnout. And in the constituencies, the different party landscape will change the required quota (and thereby %) as seats are distributed with D'Hondt

1. Win 2% nationally. This required 70 380 votes.

2. Win a constituency seat.
In Copenhagen, the 16th and last seat was won with a 22 361 quota (5.16%)
In Copenhagen Environs, the 11th and last seat was won with a 20 806 quota (6.69%)
In Northern Zealand, the 10th and last seat was won with a 18 171 quota (6.32%)
In Bornholm, the 2nd and last seat was won with a 5 257 quota (20.26%)
In Zealand, the 20th and last seat was won with a 20 575 quota (3.92%)
In Funen, the 12th and last seat was won with a 18 891 (6.05%)
In Southern Jutland, the 18th and last seat was won with a 20 878 quota (4.70%)
In Eastern Jutland, the 18th and last seat was won with a 22 053 quota (4.55%)
In Western Jutland, the 13th and last seat was won with a 17 907 quota (5.49%)
In Northern Jutland, the 15th and last seat was won with a 20 290 quota (5.49%)

3. Achieve the vote ratio in 2 of 3 electoral regions
In Metropolitan Copenhagen (the four first constituencies mentioned above), the vote ratio was 27 119 votes (2.56%)
In Zealand-Southern Jutland (the three next constituencies mentioned), the vote ratio was 25 616 (2.00%)
In Central-Northern Jutland (the three last constituencies mentioned), the vote ratio was 25 664 (2.17%)

[DavidB.]

Rumor sent to me: 51.7% red, 48.3% blue. Taking it with a ton of salt, but if this is true, it's probably amazing news for either V or DF and S has underperformed.

[Diouf]

At 19.00 turnout was 81.4%, compared to 80.0% at the same time in 2015.

[jaichind]

Rumor sent to me: 51.7% red, 48.3% blue. Taking it with a ton of salt, but if this is true, it's probably amazing news for either V or DF and S has underperformed.

If true total under-performance  for the Reds. I would think they will be above 54% at least

[Sestak]

Polls have closed.

[jaichind]

TV2 : 90-80 win for Reds

[Diouf]

TV2 Exit Poll

Social Democrats 25.9%
Liberals 20.4%
DPP 9.9%
Red-Green Alliance 8.1%
Liberal Alliance 2.8%
Alternative 3.0%
Social Liberals 8.2%
SPP 8.3%
Conservatives 6.3%
Christian Democrats 2.0%
New Right 2.6%
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0.7%
Tough Line 1.8%

[Sestak]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

[pilskonzept]

Looks like a slight V overperformance and a slight S underperformance, then?

[Sestak]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

https://twitter.com/nsnielsen/status/1136331917228482560?s=21