Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[mvd10]

Yeah, scrapping the dividend tax really doesn't make any sense with all the tax deals the Netherlands has with foreign governments. I believe 75% of the tax cut would go to foreign governments because of the tax deals we have with them. Shell and Unilever were among the few corporations that cared about this anyway because they're closely intertwined with the UK, and only the UK has a 0% dividend tax rate.

By my own quick unprofessional estimate the 1.4 billion dividend tax cut also could be used to further cut the corporate tax to 19% (and 14% for smaller businesses). That would also improve Dutch business climate and it'd actually help Dutch businesses instead of foreign governments and the 10 people who live in countries that don't have a tax deal with the Dutch government (investors from eSwatini?).

Raising the OZB probably makes sense from a technocratic point of view (taxes on immobile stuff are efficient, Dutch property taxes aren't terribly high), but it does show that VNO-NCW cares more about the multinationals than it's small business base, and all the talk about across the board tax cuts was just to satisfy the base. I mean, economically it's not a bad proposal to shift more to property taxes but pls don't ever talk about stealth taxes on small businesses anymore VNO-NCW.

I'm surprised Wiebes got off so easily. Apparently he wrote a party document where he named some companies that didn't relocate to the Netherlands because of the dividend tax, but he wasn't allowed to disclose that information because of the strict rules for the tax authorities (and he had access to that information as State Secretary of Finance). I thought he'd get more trouble, as he already wasn't very popular as State Secretary of Finance.

Unsurprisingly Rutte didn't get in much trouble. The whole opposition except the SGP supported a "motie van afkeuring", but a "motie van afkeuring" usually is meant to criticise the government's policy and it isn't as bad as a motion of no confidence (which targets a person). So the fears that this would be Rutte's hardest debate ever were exaggerated, but it still was a tough debate for him.

[mvd10]

Poll around the dividend tax:



I'm guessing CU is not included since they are too small. Only VVD voters are in favour, while the voters of the two other government parties are clearly against. Most opposition parties are naturally wholly against, but I am perhaps a bit surprised by the FvD figures. I would have thought they would have more "right-right" voters, who would share economics views with VVD or be even further right. 

Economically they're more right-wing (and more affluent) than PVV voters, but cultural issues trump economic issues for them. Wilders (and Baudet) painted it as a present for foreign investors and governments. They might be more fiscally conservative than the PVV, but for logical reasons they're not very enthusiastic about cutting taxes for foreign investors. And they're probably going to oppose everything the government will put forward because 'party cartel'.

I don't think there is much space for a "right-right" party that shares the economic platform of the VVD and the social/cultural platform of the PVV. VNL tried hard to be that party and it didn't work. A journalist of a prominent right-wing/far-right site got savaged by his readers after he wrote an article in support of VNL's proposal to cut the minimum welfare benefit by 10%. Meanwhile FvD largely shunned economic issues and tried to be a more respectable/intellectual/transparent version of the PVV and it worked out very well. FvD voters probably like lower taxes and they might be not as nostalgic for the 1970s welfare state as PVV voters, but they probably see larger businesses/investors and free marketeers as leftists who want to flood the Netherlands with hordes of cheap foreign labour. Most 'right-right' voters probably are content with the VVD, which remains a fundamentally centre-right/right-wing party even though the VVD Amsterdam makes a left-wing gaffe from time to time.

[mvd10]

Coalition agreement of GL, D66, PvdA, SP soon to be presented in Amsterdam. I guess people deserve what they vote for.

I was about to call for Amsterdam-Zuid separatism, but even Amsterdam-Zuid is quite left-wing despite its affluence (VVD only got 25% there or so vs 21% nationwide). For heaven's sake, even the Zuidas (Dutch Wall Street + loads of lawyers) voted 'only' 40% VVD (32% D66). It all depends on how you see D66 I suppose. If parties have to be arbitrarily divided in a left-wing camp and a right-wing camp people tend to put D66 with the left, but I imagine D66 voters would be split 50/50 in a VVD vs generic centre-left party race.

[mvd10]

Coalition agreement of GL, D66, PvdA, SP soon to be presented in Amsterdam. I guess people deserve what they vote for.

I was about to call for Amsterdam-Zuid separatism, but even Amsterdam-Zuid is quite left-wing despite its affluence (VVD only got 25% there or so vs 21% nationwide). For heaven's sake, even the Zuidas (Dutch Wall Street + loads of lawyers) voted 'only' 40% VVD (32% D66). It all depends on how you see D66 I suppose. If parties have to be arbitrarily divided in a left-wing camp and a right-wing camp people tend to put D66 with the left, but I imagine D66 voters would be split 50/50 in a VVD vs generic centre-left party race.

Many people fail to make a distinction between progressive and left. Nationally, D66 is more centre right than centre left. D66 is progressive but economically it is certainly not left.
32% for D66 at the Zuidas is hardly a surprise, since D66 has always had a lot of support among lawyers, judges and other legal professionals.

Yes, but internally there are some parts of D66 that want to move to the left. And D66 hasn't always been fiscally conservative, back in the 70s D66 very clearly was part of the left. The Zuidas probably is more of a lawyer's paradise instead of a Dutch Wall Street (since most foreign banks probably run Dutch operations in London or Frankfurt) so you're right about D66 support in the Zuidas. I still expected the VVD to do somewhat better though.

Anyway, more big news: there will be new judges in Wilders 'fewer Moroccans' case. Wilders' request for substitution of the judges has been accepted. Wilders claimed the judges were biased and he complained that it's unfair that Pechtold didn't get investigated even though he said something negative about Russian citizens while Wilders is getting prosecuted for his statement. This will delay the trial, and it gives Wilders new ammunition to rail against the 'D66 judges'.

[mvd10]

Coming man and probably future VVD leader Klaas Dijkhoff had a rather controversial speech yesterday. He proposed to reform welfare so that you get lower unemployment benefits unless you can prove you are actively searching for a job or doing something else that contributes to society (I support it, it isn't a very radical change anyway), he proposed to stop automatically granting citizenship to refugees who have been here for 5 years (support), on refugees he said: 'We temporarily take you in and we give you an education so you can go back and build up your own country' (great idea!), he said the Netherlands should support people who want to liberate themselves from the yoke of extremist Islam (another great idea!) and he said the VVD should stop generalizing all Dutch citizens with a migration background because 'the Moroccan girl who is studying isn't responsible for the behaviour of criminal 'capuchonklootzakjes' (so true!). Snowflake journalists and most of my friends are crying leftist tears. I love Klaas Dijkhoff even more. Please make this man PM already .

The only thing I didn't like was that he said the VVD is there for 'good people'. That was a bit too much lol.

I guess Dijkhoff really is positioning himself to be the next VVD leader btw. Rutte started out as a very centrist leader, but he only really succeeded after he shifted to the right so I guess Dijkhoff doesn't want to repeat Rutte's mistake. It's just blatantly obvious that he will succeed Rutte, especially after other potential contenders dropped out one by one (Zijlstra, Hennis-Plasschaert, Schippers). Only Edith Schippers deciding she wants to return to politics could be an obstacle. But Rutte has a few more years in him, and who knows what happens next so maybe this is a bit premature.

[mvd10]

Apologies if this has been asked before, but how do Jews vote in the Netherlands? Is there much variation in the community (i.e. nominal vs Haredi)

Orthodox Christian parties win a lot of votes from Jews (I imagine because of their strong support for Israel). I believe the VVD also is overrepresented. Most Jews live in Amsterdam or Amstelveen (Amsterdam suburb). Amstelveen votes VVD and the parts of Amsterdam where Jews tend to live also vote strongly VVD, but I'm not sure whether that means means much since Jews probably aren't a sizable group even in these places. There are about 50.000 Jews in the Netherlands, so it's hard to find representative polls and it's even harder to differentiate between groups in the community. I imagine David knows a lot about this though. As a Catholic who grew up in a relatively rural/exurban place and attends an university in a non-Randstad city I've never even met a Dutch Jew so I'm probably not the best person to comment on this (I have met a couple of Jews in NYC, but that's it).

I can't help to think to see parallels between how Jews were treated by the Calvinist rules in 1600s Noord-Holland (compared to Catholics) and how CU-SGP do with Jews (compared to Catholics). While Jews obviously still faced a lot of hate and discrimination they were allowed to build their synagogue, while the Calvinists didn't allow Catholics to build a Catholic church in Amsterdam (being a Catholic wasn't illegal, but it excluded you from political positions and you could only visit secret churches). Nowadays CU+SGP (strongly Protestant parties) do very well with Jews but they still struggle to make inroads with religous Catholics because of their anti-papal past. Maybe it's a #hot take, but it's still interesting to see. A lot of Dutch Jews were killed during the Holocaust because the Neterlands had a very advanced civilian register and the Dutch government didn't show any compassion at all when Jews returned after WW2. So I guess that's why there are relatively few Jews in the Netherlands even though the Netherlands has quite a history with Jewish immigrants. But seriously, the first thing Jews from Amsterdam received after returning from the camps was a fine for not paying their leasehold payments. I guess governments from Amsterdam being absolutely terrible isn't  just a recent phenomenon.

This is a poll on how Jews intended to vote in 2017. It's important you compare the numbers to the polls at that moment because quite a lot happened the last week of the campaign. CU and SGP strongly overperform and the VVD is overrepresented. PvdA also does quite well even though they underperformed in 2012. 40% identifies as liberal Jews, 18% as culturally Jewish, 14% as Orthodox and 8% as atheist. The people in the poll were disproportionally well-educated (not sure whether Jews are disproportionally well-educated or whether it's just the poll, I imagine it's a combination of both) and they identify a little more as right-wing than as left-wing, but that's also true with the general populace from what I've seen.

[mvd10]

The very left-wing coalition in Amsterdam (GL-D66-PvdA-SP) inevitably will clash with the current centre-right national coalition. Yesterday a bunch of illegal refugee squatters almost got in a fight with some people. One of those people apparently was the son of former VVD alderman Eric van der Burg. I wonder how D66 will handle it. They're both in the left-wing Amsterdam coalition and in the centre-right national coalition. I imagine it would have been much better for D66 if both Amsterdam and the national government had the broadly centrist VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalitions D66 desperately wanted. One of the most controversial plans of the new Amsterdam coalition is to create a shelter for refused refugees where they can stay for up to 1,5 year. Ironically the squatters aren't happy with it and want even more generous rules for refused refugees. Other than the coalition in Amsterdam proposes a bunch of tax hikes, more social housing and measures to limit the amount of tourists to keep Amsterdam 'livable' for Amsterdammers. I guess Amsterdam will be a free port for the #Resistance against anything remotely resembling the right .

Rotterdam might very well get an 'anything but Leefbaar' coalition. Leefbaar Rotterdam is a very successful local right-wing party (however unlike other RWP's they've been fairly successful in government). But the left-wing parties don't want to work with Leefbaar after they allied with Thierry Baudet and it looks like we're heading for VVD-D66-GL-PvdA-CDA-CU/SGP. Or if we use parochialboy's thread: a coalition between the money money money party, woke centrists, bicycles and quinoa party, social democrats and generalised panic, obsolete Christians, humanist Christians and the GOD party. Nothing could possibly go wrong .

[mvd10]

Rutte wants former Foreign Affairs minister Halbe Zijlstra to become the Dutch executive director at the World Bank. Zijlstra resigned a few months ago after it was revealed he lied about attending a meeting with Putin in 2006. Zijlstra claimed Putin said he basically wanted to restore the old Soviet Union, but Zijlstra wasn't there and Putin didn't even say what Zijlstra claimed. Apparently only Rutte wants this though, Finance minister Hoekstra (CDA) is strongly opposed because Zijlstra lacks obvious experience for this function (just like he allegedly lacked experience for the Foreign Affairs post). Pechtold also was surprised. Rutte loves to keep his loyalists close (and Zijlstra is really close to Rutte), so this could lead to allegations of nepotism/'party cartel'.

Bad politics or not, I would support this appointment. Halbe Zijlstra died for our sins. His lie was a pure act of self-sacrifice by a great man. So beautiful .

[mvd10]

As the coalition probably will lose its majority after the senate elections in 2019 centre-left parties already reached out to the coalition. Both the PvdA and GreenLeft have signalled they are willing to help the coalition to a majority, but they want some things in return (no benefit cuts, don't repeal the dividend tax, lower healthcare co-payments, etc).

Another episode in the dividend tax saga. Apparently Shell has been evading the dividend tax since 2005, for a total of 7 billion euros (500 million per year). The dividend tax itself only brings in about 1.5 billion euros a year, so it seems like Shell and Unilever are practically the only companies to be affected by it. Since the bulk of the tax cut indirectly flows to foreign governments (tax deals) there doesn't really seem to be any economic rationale for this anymore, except for keeping Shell and Unilever here. I imagine huge multinationals like Shell and Unilever being headquartered here gives Rutte some credentials in other countries or whatever, because I can't think of any other reason for this decision.

A majority of PvdA members wants far-reaching cooperation between PvdA, GL and SP. They want to present 1 left-wing list for the provincial (and senate) elections. The party leadership doesn't want it (and neither does Klaver or the SP leadership). I'm not really sure whether it would be a good idea either. GL voters disproportionally are university students or university-educated millennials, the last PvdA voters mostly are some ancestral PvdA voters from Groningen and older well-educated middle-class voters (civil servants, teachers, etc) and SP mainly consists out of very poor people or people living on benefits. The workerist wing of the SP and the more centrist wing of GL probably will clash. Then again, any winning left-wing coalition probably needs to unite lower middle-class 'economically anxious' voters, university students and left-leaning middle-class voters to win anyway.

[mvd10]

A van has crashed into the Telegraaf office in Amsterdam (De Telegraaf is a quite right-wing newspaper but politics probably didn't play a role in the attack). It's presumed that organized crime is behind the attack, as the office of crime magazine Panorama also was attacked. It's probably one of the motor clubs that recently was declared illegal. Luckily no people have been harmed at either attack.

More problems for Rutte. Rutte said he didn't know about a tax deal the Dutch government had with some undisclosed multinational, but apparently he did know (in 2014 civil servants gave him a memo). Lately there has been a lot of controversy about Rutte not being entirely honest all the time (especially when it's about the dividend tax repeal or tax breaks for multinationals), so this is terrible optics. FvD has run an ad which included blasting Rutte for bowing to the EU and to multinationals. It's not just the left attacking Rutte for this.

It still isn't certain who the next mayor of Amsterdam will be. The two most prominent candidates seem to be former GroenLinks leader Femke Halsema and former PvdA Amsterdam alderwoman Carolien Gehrels (I have to be honest, I had to look her up lol). Neither has heavy experience (big city mayor, minister, etc), but SJW municipality Amsterdam really can't afford to choose a white straight male . Right-wing parties seem to support the PvdA candidate, more progressive parties want Halsema. These are all just rumours since the members of the commission which will select candidates for the council to vote on legally aren't allowed to tell us anything. Halsema's total lack of experience (she's only been a MP) might be a problem, Gehrels atleast has some executive experience as an alderwoman.

[mvd10]

Dijkhoff organized a 'stand-up politics' night. It was a combination between politics and comedy (comedian Rob Scheepers also was there). There was some controversy because the tweet which announced the night seemed to imply they were going to make fun of refugees, but Dijkhoff stated this absolutely wasn't the case and he said he hoped people who wanted him to do that would stay home. Still, there were a bunch of very high-energy protestors. Dijkhoff invited them in but they didn't want to be part of the 'racist VVD propaganda show'.





(feel the high energy)

Seriously, Dijkhoff has been actively angering the activist left for the past few weeks. That's part of his job as VVD fraction leader and probably future leader. I don't even think it's a bad thing, Dijkhoff was broadly popular with everyone before these incidents but if he becomes VVD leader he was going to piss these people (who will never vote VVD lol) off anyway.

[mvd10]

Love woke Dutch Twitter insisting Baudet, Wilders, Rutte and Buma are fascists.

An interesting indicator of just how quickly the debate on immigration and asylum has shifted: only three years ago, VVD immigration spokesman Malik Azmani almost stood alone in proposing migration deals with Northern African countries and an end to the right to come to Europe and ask for asylum. Now, 85% of parliament support this. Not only D66 and CU have pulled a 180 since the election campaign, but so did PvdA (Asscher's visit to Denmark's SDs might have played a role here too) and SP (Roemer was more of an "internationalist" than Marijnissen/Meyer), which means GL almost stand alone in their opposition, with only the small PvdD and DENK on their side.

Woke UvA DENK-PvdD-Bij1 coalition inevitable!

But I believe a few weeks ago some American sociologist actually wanted to convince the Dutch public that a PvdD-BIJ1-DENK coalition would somehow be a good idea (he also claimed that climate change would cause the proletariat to overthrow the bourgeoisie, Scarlet would love it). Thank God notoriously left-wing occasional Buitenhof presenter Mar(x)cia Luyten will finally leave next year.

Another incident I remember now. A boy had a very high grade for history at high school (exams were a month ago or so). The boy also was an active FvD member. His teacher rewarded him by calling him out publicly and giving him a book on the dangers of fascism (lol).

[mvd10]

I'm not DavidB but I think I can answer some questions .

CDA/CU definitely isn't like CDU/CSU. First of all CDA and CU don't even have any official understanding, they're completely separate and different parties. CDA is a big tent Christian party, CU basically is a Protestant party. Dutch society was divided in pillars up until the 1960s and Catholics, Protestants, Socialists and Liberals (the fourth, 'neutral' pillar) didn't really have a lot of contact. In the 1970s when everyone saw pillarization was basically over and secularization started to hurt Christian Democratic parties the KVP (Catholic party) and two Protestant parties decided to merge. The more conservative Protestant parties of SGP, GPV and RPF (latter 2 became CU) always were much more anti-Catholic than the ARP and CHU (which merged into the CDA) so they obviously didn't join. CU accepts Catholic members now but I believe there still isn't a single prominent Catholic CU politician. And CDA is much more right-wing on identity issues than the CU, CU actually is quite progressive on issues like climate change, immigration, refugees, etc. In the past you could actually call them Christian left. They're not as left-wing as in the past, but on issues like immigration they're much closer to the left than to CDA. If the CDA were to have anything close to the CSU it probably would be the more conservative/right-wing Catholics CDA politicians in Limburg deciding to split off because they've lost enough to the PVV. There was talk of that 6/7 years ago but it's never going to happen (it's completely unrealistic). Depillarization practically has been completed anyway, so that won't affect the CDA anymore . Their electorate is aging, the Netherlands is becoming less Christian (and the very religious ones vote CU/SGP anyway) so their future doesn't look good. But I think they can survive if they become a big tent culturally conservative party. They probably won't ever win the elections again, but they still can be relevant in that role.

Economically things are going fine, even though there are a lot of people who don't really 'feel' it. That's a problem and the government basically is trying to solve it by cutting taxes and 'making people feel things are going better'. The public finances are excellent, the Netherlands is projected to have large surpluses in the coming few years (was to be expected after Rutte 1 and Rutte 2 pursued very ambitious austerity programs). There still is a debate on what to do with the surpluses (the government will spend a lot of money). Some economists want the government to be more austere and to stabilize the economy (Dutch economy is rather volatile, will come back to that later), other economists (and the IMF) advise the Netherlands to spend/invest more in things like infrastructure and education because interest rates are extremely low. There even are some economists who argue that Northern countries with huge trade and budget surpluses should start stimulating the economy and demand while Southern countries with huge deficits (Italy, Spain) should pursue more structural reforms (reducing employment protection, etc). They argue this will lead to a more balanced Eurozone (Northern European countries would reduce their criminally big trade surpluses because of the deficit spending, Southern European countries would reduce their trade deficits because of structural reforms and new Northern demand for cheap Southern poducts).

Another problem might be the labour market. We have a lot of people on flexible contracts with no job security. The right argues that this is because of strict employment protection laws for people on permanent contracts, the left argues that this is the case because of lax regulation for flexible contracts.

We also have a booming housing market with rising prices and very expensive rents (good luck finding a house in Amsterdam lol). The right (and a bunch of economists) argue that this is the case because of strict rent controls, the left wants to build more houses. I believe the IMF recommended reducing rent control laws. Another reason for the weird housing market here is the mortgage deduction. Because Dutch tax rates are higher and we don't have anything like the standard deduction the mortgage deduction is much more important in the Netherlands. We have a huge pile of mortgage debt and because of it the Dutch economy is rather volatile. If things are going well they are going great (2017, 2018), if things aren't going well we're f**ed (2012-2014). IMF recommends limiting the mortgage interest deduction (centre-right/right-wing parties oppose it during campaigns, but it happens anyway) and stricter regulation (allowing people to lend max 90% of the house price).

I don't really know a lot about the healthcare system and the educational system. But our healthcare system basically is Obamacare on steroids. Insurance is mandated and private insurers are forced to offer basic coverage to everyone (and it's free for children). I believe it works pretty well even though there are some concerns about the costs.

As for the educational system, all schools are publicly funded but they have quite a lot of freedom. There even are some religious schools which are publicly funded but can refuse students if they're not religious (legacy of 1917). Not really a problem since quality education is accessible almost everywhere. Only in some big cities there are a lot of worries about white parents not willing to send their children to (worse) 'black schools' which might lead to segegration and inequalities. Children get separated in 3 different categories when they're 12 (based on the teacher's opinion of their cognitive abilities). VMBO prepares you for vocational training, HAVO prepares you for HBO (university of applied sciences, more practical and less theoretical version of universities), VWO prepares you for actual universities. Obviously it's possible to move up if it becomes clear you can handle a higher level (I know a lot of people who moved from HAVO to VWO, I even know someone who started out at VMBO and ended up at VWO). There is some concern about the bad image of the VMBO, apparently only 45% of VMBO pupils feels safe at school while more than 80% of VWO pupils feels safe. This has led to parents 'pushing' children to HAVO/VWO which has led to a shortage of skilled workers. You can't blame the parents for this though, generally HBO/university offer better job prospects than vocational training/MBO. And I'm pretty sure HAVO/VWO probably is a safer environment for your children than VMBO. University education isn't really expensive. You can get government loans under very good terms and lower-income students still get free government grants. Still, because of the loans there is a lot of pressure (especially for low-income students) to graduate within 4 (or 5 depending on the study) years which might led them to pursue less extracurricular activities which might hurt their position on the job market. And a lot of people are studying in less employable fields while there will be a shortage of STEM degrees (also a problem for MBO and HBO).

I'm going to let David answer the other questions

(lol David ninja'd me)

I obviously love living in the Netherlands btw

[mvd10]

Anyway, the PVV probably always will have a niche role as I imagine many PVV voters think Baudet is too much of a snob (though they'll probably vote for FvD if they actually stand a chance to win the elections). Education probably doesn't really play a role for your left/right orientation, but it seems like higher educated voters vote for completely different parties. D66 (centrist), GL (left-wing) and to a lesser extent VVD (right-wing) are disproportionally supported by higher-educated voters while doing pretty badly with voters with a high school education. SP (left-wing) and PVV (far-right) do much better with voters with just a high school education. With FvD (right-wing/far-right) and PvdD (animals rights party) it looks like we even have anti-establishment parties for OSM ('ons soort mensen', basically a nickname for snobs). I think there is a hard core of PVV voters who just won't vote for someone like Baudet (he loves to portray himself as an intellectual).

People who have voted VVD for 40 years, say they now support <insert right-wing populist party here> and won't ever vote VVD again and then still vote VVD at the last possible moment (or in the next election) because they don't want the left to win or because of a last-minute 'October surprise' (Turkish ministers campaigning in the Netherlands) has been a recurring meme since the early 2000s or so. As a very optimistic VVD member I fully expect that to happen again in 2021 (or earlier) . Which is a reason why polls show there aren't many VVD-PVV swing voters even though there probably are some.

[mvd10]

This is for mvd10 (sorry again for overlooking you! I loved your response!)

Would the CDA get broad-based appeal amongthe broader electorate including young adults and
non-religious voters (heck even muslim voters, once they settle and integrate over time) if they build themselves up as the "good government" and "pro-community" party without necessarily sacrificing their principles (what's the point of voting for similar shades, if everyone's the same)? Do you have any info behind the splits?

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I really like this, yes austerity is painful but over the long-run it provides an opportunity to invest in future endeavors as budget policy is rebalanced. I know this is going into the fantastical but I wish governments had more structural surpluses which would mean it would be much easier to invest in one project or the other. Is there anything you'd like to see the surpluses spend on?

In respect to labor policy, is the issue as bad as it is in France (I understand France and to an extent Italy are countries where labor reform is being debated and considered)? How is the Dutch labor market, it is abound with good jobs with benefits that allow a measure of self-sufficiency for Dutch workers and families and allows them to save for the future?

On the housing issue, is Holland doomed to deal with pricey homes due to the fact that the country is only so large, how would you address it? With health care, deductibles are a downer but without them, the health care system could become overloaded and overwhelmed, at least with cost-sharing, you can incentivize folks to stay in tip-top shape as much as they can (and provide a safety net and a floor which serves as a baseline and floor for those in need).

In respect to the Dutch education system, is the three tier pathway basically akin to Germany's system, this does sound like a rather well-organized system with enough freedom for students with the drive to move up if they were sorted in the wrong track for whatever reason (bad year, bad teacher, etc). Why don't they just improve conditions in the VMBO schools (yes I understand it's easier said than done), I know this sounds stereotypical but it seems like the vocational track is more likely to have disadvantaged students (perhaps those with disabilities, or refugee students trying to fit in Dutch society), could developing a more holistic approach improving the VMBO schools and put those students on the wrong track (while almost promoting societal inclusion and social mobility?)?

Again, I hope some American opining on Dutch politics and policy isn't turning you off. The Dutch model seems to work well in some aspects even if I don't agree with everything the Netherlands does or trends.

Apparently CDA won 9% of young voters in 2017 (this surprised me, I actually thought they'd get less than 5%). I don't think Muslim voters will vote CDA in the forseeable future, they're far too culturally conservative for that. Right now Muslims vote pretty much exclusively for de-facto Muslim party DENK (I believe 50% of Muslims voted for them). I imagine there will always be place for a vaguely Christian 'pro-community' conservative party since neither the VVD (probably a bit too 'libertarian' for lack of a better word) nor the left will take that role (even though the VVD has become more culturally conservative). Famous electoral geographer Josse de Voogd (our king is alive!) made this map:



Green areas are areas that vote for the left, even if it's arrogant (think Hillary Clinton & 'deplorables'). They're mainly big cities and university towns. Blue areas are areas that vote right-wing anyway (a combination of wealthy VVD suburbs, CU/SGP Bible Belt areas and religious CDA-voting Catholic areas in eastern Noord-Brabant and eastern Overijssel). Yellow areas aren't monolithic by any means but generally they are the kind of areas that feel left behind by globalisation. De Voogd claims they'd vote for the left if they were less 'arrogant' (or more culturally conservative/populist). I hate to make the comparison but I guess you could see them as the Dutch version of the Midwest. It isn't really a good comparison because a lot of these yellow places didn't even vote for the left in the first place. I don't think the yellow parts of Noord-Holland voted for any left-wing party the past 30 years and parts of Limburg and Friesland are yellow even though they mostly voted for the CDA in the past. Almost all of the yellow places outside the northern 3 places voted VVD over PvdA/Labour in 2012 anyway. It seems like most of those places last voted for the left in the 1990s. But anyway, you get the idea. I imagine a more culturally conservative 'pro-community' CDA would win a lot of these places (even though some yellow places really aren't going to vote CDA while others vote CDA anyway). But seriously, I think that some of the yellow parts of Noord-Holland probably would never vote for the left, I don't know where de Voogd got that idea from. Other than that the map seems okay.

I'm a staunch VVD supporter because that's the party any libertarian-leaning person with some conservative leanings on immigration and law and order ends up . I don't like Buma (CDA leader) at all, I'm not particularly religious (so no CU/SGP), I'm rather libertarian on economic issues (no left-wing parties), I don't really like EU federalism but I'm also not an Eurosceptic either (no PVV, FvD) and I think D66 is a bit too left-wing overall. So that only leaves the VVD .

The Dutch labour market has rather strict employment protections. This probably doesn't really affect unemployment, but in theory it does increase the duration of unemployment (so there will be few people who will be unemployed for years instead of a situation where people will be layed off more easily but also can find a job relatively fast) and it creates a huge gap between people on permanent contracts and people on sh**tty temporary contracts. The main result is a dual labour market with a group of winners and a group of losers. The reason for low German unemployment wasn't the labour market reforms, it was a period of wage moderation agreed to by both labour unions and employer unions (they tend to work together rather harmoniously in Rhineland countries). The reason why France has high unemployment rates are hilariously high labour costs in France. And literally everything is a dysfunctional hellhole in Italy, so no surprises there. I still think employment protection laws generally are bad and inefficient, but not necessarily because they can affect unemployment.

For now the labour market is quite good, there is a shortage of workers in most sectors which will cause wages to rise (and hopefully it will cause employers to offer more permanent contracts).

I really think the problems in the housing markets are caused by things like the mortgage deduction (which sadly is overwhelmingly supported by the right) and way too much government regulation (rent controls) distorting the markets but that's the opinion of a borderline libertarian .

I still think the Dutch education system generally is great though. We don't have an elite who attended extremely expensive private prep schools, there are enough opportunities to move up if you want, the differences between the quality of different schools aren't as big as in other countries and there also are positive effects of separating the children when they're 12. It allows for more customization and because only people with a VWO degree (or HBO) can attend universities all of our universities are excellent and students should be well-prepared to enter university (which is affordable for everyone). There are some problems, but overall we have a great education system in my opinion. As for now the main problem is social inequality (children of minorities and poorer people disproportionally go to VMBO, children of wealthier people disproportionally go to VWO). But I don't think whether the problem is any bigger than in other European countries (and the problem certainly is bigger in Anglosaxon countries).

I'm not sure whether the austerity was a really good idea. I broadly supported it but at times I thought they went too far. Sure, the Dutch economy is a very open economy so stimulus doesn't always work and austerity might not be as bad as some leftists claim but I think I'd have preferred a more gradual austerity programme and more structural reforms. Mass austerity (we're talking about huge tax hikes and big spending cuts, much more than in other European countries) during a recession doesn't really sound like a brilliant idea. But then again, politicians wouldn't have had the discipline to continue a more gradual programme during better economic times so maybe it was better this way. If they had taken more time to implement the reforms they surely would have cancelled them by now because the economy is growing. And then we'd have been f**ed again during the next recession. Which is why the Dutch central bank isn't happy with the government splurging the money now (but the IMF is happy with it). 10 economists, 11 opinions .

[mvd10]

Two hypothetical coalition questions:

1. If GL were to win the most seats for a left-wing party, what would be some likely coalitions?

2. In the (very) hypothetical scenario that parties were willing to work with PVV to form a coalition, which parties would be most likely to do so? I assume FvD is one of them.

EDIT: One more question:

The VVD leadership election in which Rutte won was seen as the right-liberals vs. more right-wing conservatives (iirc). After Rutte leaves, what are the chances of the conservative faction taking control of the party?

I fully agree with SunSt0rm. GL would need atleast 1 right-wing party to govern with (we're likely not seeing a leftist majority anytime soon, and that is if you count D66 as centre-left) and neither VVD or CDA wants to be the only right-wing party in a broadly centre-lefy coalition. We'd probably see a vague centrist coalition (Purple Plus + CDA, the anyone but Thierry/Geert coalition?).

Like SunSt0rm said, it's extremely unlikely that the PVV will be in government ever again. I'm curious about FvD though. They're probably very cautious to work with an right-wing populist party again and Baudet also has said some things he'd probably need to retract if he wants to be in government, but they haven't had a breach of trust with Baudet like they had with Wilders, so maybe it's possible if the overton window shifts further to the right and FvD wins the election with a huge margin. I strongly doubt it though, I don't think we'll see FvD in government either.

Internal debate in the VVD has weakened the past few years. Ideological debate almost tore the party apart after the disastrous Rutte-Verdonk leadership election so they're really not keen on that anymore. Both flanks of the VVD weakened. The old D66-light moderates don't really have a lot of influence anymore, but the VVD also doesn't have vocal right-wing rebels who aren't happy with the current course either. The right-wing membership wasn't really happy with the possibility of a coalition with GL, but they also kept relatively quiet during the formation. So I don't think there will be anything like a revolution after Rutte leaves.

In a sense the right-wing faction did take control of the party. At heart Rutte might remain a centrist liberal but the VVD did shift to the right under him and I struggle to name any prominent moderate VVD politicians. Maybe Hennis-Plasschaert or Wiebes? But they won't ever be leader and they definitely don't dissent with the current course of the VVD. The old moderate wing of the VVD is only relevant in Amsterdam and some big cities, and even there the only real differences are that they're slightly less right-wing on immigration and more woke on climate change. Meanwhile people like Rutte or Dijkhoff are saying things that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago.

In 2008/2009 Mark Rutte had a few talks with a former Tory/GOP political consultant (the VVD was at a low point in the polls) and the consultant advised Rutte to go back to the basics and shift to the right if he wanted to win (and guess what happened lol). Dijkhoff probably will more or less continue on the same line as Rutte, we really shouldn't forget that post-2009 Rutte has been pretty right-wing during campaigns. Dijkhoff (or Schippers, who also remains a possibility if she decides she wants to return to politics) might only be marginally more right-wing than Rutte.

[mvd10]

Time for Hans van Baalen







A true visionary. Courageous souls like Hans van Baalen will always come to save the nation in her darkest hours.

Sadly van Baalen isn't a Rutte loyalist. Heck, he probably got a kick upstairs to the European Parliament because he was too critical of Rutte (also the reason why this national treasure didn't get the cabinet job he deserves). It's still not too late Mark. Whenever the next VVD minister resigns you can bring Hans in. Picking a MEP with very close ties to Monsanto, the Ukrainian government and the car industry would piss off all the right people. Time to reap those leftist and right-wing populist tears .

Blok should have watched his tongue and he shouldn't have mentioned ethnicity or genetic stuff (or the Suriname being a failed state part, which is very undiplomatic) but I think there are a quite lot of people who agree with him. I wasn't really outraged about it when I read it, he probably has a point with most multicultural experiments failing. But he's Foreign Minister so he really can't say those things. Ironically Rutte picked Blok because Blok has the reputation of a cautious man who doesn't make stupid gaffes. Lol. What Blok said about migrants in Eastern Europe is especially awkward because spreading refugees more equally over all of Europe (instead of the Northern countries where they want to go) is cabinet policy.

[mvd10]

I looked it up and ironically Benoordenhout (the affluent place in The Hague Blok mentioned) overwhelmingly voted VVD. The one precinct in the area voted 48% VVD (21% is the national average). The Hague is more right-wing than Amsterdam or Utrecht though, VVD and D66 were tied in the wealthier areas there.

Apart from the bits you pointed out, he's not wrong. (Well, can't speak to the condition of Suriname's society, but that part didn't do him any favors.

I'd imagine that his sentiments are widely held among the public, even if some are afraid to admit it--in which case I imagine this might push a few people closer to FvD

Blok is a VVD politician. Or do you mean this will spark another national debate which would benefit FvD? I do agree that similar sentiments are probably held by a sizable amount of the public, including a lot of voters the VVD needs to win because you can't win by just racking up the margin in Aerdenhout and other wealthy Randstad commuter towns lol (and even those voters are surprisingly right-wing on identity issues). Twitter reactions are overwhelmingly negative, but Dutch Twitter is a notoriously left-wing echo chamber (with a few far-right trolls too) where anything remotely associated with the VVD is loathed. But I hope they'll poll it. Maurice de Hond, we need you more than ever!

But the main problem with what Blok said is that's it's completely undiplomatic, rather brash (probably not something you want in your Foreign Affairs Minister) and seems to contradict coalition policy.

In 2004 Stef Blok actually chaired a parliamentary commission that concluded Dutch immigration/integration policy over the past 30 was largely successful. Lol.

[mvd10]

Well, Baudet did write a book about a gigolo once.

Obvious tactical mistake by Baudet though. In the eyes of the Baudetjugend only women can be seen as sexual lust objects. Baudet's downfall is now imminent .

[mvd10]

In Poland even for the left-wing politician it would be seen as not appropriate.

This is the Netherlands though. I doubt many people outside of the Bible Belt will care. And even if they care it probably won't change their likelihood to vote FvD anyway. Thierry Baudet was open about inhaling lavender and being so infatuated with a woman that he stopped masturbating (true story) and nobody cared.

[mvd10]

Thierry Baudet was open about inhaling lavender and being so infatuated with a woman that he stopped masturbating (true story) and nobody cared.

what

Yes, the saviour of the Dutch nation state and Western Judeo-Christian culture.

David has been conspicuously absent. I suppose he's having the time of his life somewhere right now.

[mvd10]

The photo we deserve, not the one we need

[mvd10]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu6sxy_dgWM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJNooZwsxj0

More goldmines

Anyway, majorities of voters disapprove of Blok's comments on Suriname (60%) and multicultural societies (55%). Even most VVD voters seem to disapprove of Blok. Still, the VVD doesn't lose any votes because of it. The VVD is a teflon party, the last time the VVD lost a serious amounts of votes was when VVD voters had to pay more health insurance contributions (they wanted to means-test premiums, the plan was quickly scrapped).

Jozias van Aartsen (ex-VVD leader, former interim Amsterdam mayor) is rather worried about the VVD. He says the VVD is too populist and too negative about religious Muslims (he's talking about Salafi Muslims). Sure Jozias, being #woke worked so well for us in the early and mid 2000s . During his term as mayor van Aartsen also was heavily criticized for being too soft on illegal refugees who were squatting several buildings in Amsterdam. I think the national VVD is very happy that he's gone now tbh. Van Aartsen is a known moderate/social liberal, but ironically he also tried to keep Wilders in the VVD when Wilders was a rebellious VVD MP. It's clear that people like van Aartsen have lost any remaining influence they had in the VVD, Rutte 'converted' and the people who are waiting to take over also are quite right-wing.

[mvd10]

It's komkommertijd ('cucumber time') in the Netherlands, so nothing really is happening. Some parties are preparing for the European elections though. Rumour has it that Malik Azmani will become the VVD lead candidate for the European Parliament. Azmani is known as a hard-liner on immigration/integration, I like him. D66 will organize a leadership election. Prominent MEP and D66 delegation leader Sophie in 't Veld will run again, but she will be challenged my MEP Marietje Schaake and Pechtold's speechwriter Felix Klos.

I don't know anything about the internal workings of D66, but Sophie in 't Veld is a prominent MEP and the current delegation leader, so I guess she should be the favourite to win because of her status in the European Parliament. She tried to recruit M5S for ALDE (wtf) but luckily enough she failed. I believe she's quite critical of the influence American tech giants have in Europe. She's also very pro-EU(duh, D66) and has tried the 'Goldman Sachs and Google don't need the EU, but we normal citizens do'-shtick.

Felix Klos is Pechtold's speechwriter, he also campaigned for both Hillary and Bernie in the US. He predicted Trump would lose in a landslide tho. Klos will be running on a very pro-European platform. I'm not sure whether he stands a chance though (not even sure whether he will get enough signatures to run). I think he does have a bright future in D66 though.

I don't know much about Marietje Schaake other than that she's been a MEP for 10 years.

MEP Esther de Lange probably will be the CDA lead candidate again. The CDA's EU position is rather weird, they used to be extremely pro-EU but under Buma they became more sceptical (or 'nativist') as evidenced by them voting against the EU-Ukraine association agreement because the majority of voters rejected it. But the senate fraction largely voted for the association agreement (remnants of the old 1970s/80s/90s CDA). Out of the mainstream establishment parties CDA has the biggest share of voters who don't feel represented by the elites (not strange since CDA voters are older and mainly rural). It remains to be seen whether CDA's more Eurosceptical course will remain or whether it was a ploy by Buma to win disaffected right-wing VVD voters. Or maybe the CDA will go for the Rutte way in the future: Eurosceptical at home, pro-EU in Brussels .

MEP Paul Tang (who was mentioned as a possible left-wing candidate for the PvdA leadership 2 years ago) probably will be PvdA lead candidate again.

[mvd10]

You're probably right about the CDA. The EU-Ukraine association agreement passed the senate because the senate is filled with the old guard. I did not know that CDA MEP's voted for Palestinian statehood though. I'm sure Buma wasn't thrilled about that. Internally there is some opposition to Buma's course but it's probably just the dying old guard. I'm sure the prominent CDA members who were staunchly opposed to working with the PVV in 2010 aren't exactly happy with Buma. Still, Buma's course probably is the right way for the CDA since they have to find a new niche position, and their voters clearly feel more disaffected by the current 'elites' than VVD/PvdA voters.

VVD and ALDE has always been a dubious marriage, the VVD is to the right of ALDE on basically everything. Still, there is no other serious option and there are some other right-wing liberal parties in ALDE too so they'll stay there. But I'm sure that the VVD will continue deviating from ALDE from time to time.