Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017

[Tender Branson]

Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the runoff:

51.1% Drahoš
48.9% Zeman

Turnout: 63%

[Tender Branson]

Turnout was already some 50% yesterday, so overall it could be much higher than estimated.

Probably close to 70%.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting.

It seems that Prague is roughly comparable with Vienna when it comes to the voting results, but compared with the Czech Republic, other Austrian big cities delivered much more to VdB than other Czech big cities are delivering for Drahos. The rural areas in both countries are also comparable.

So, the medium-sized cities (100.000-400.000 inhabitants) are making the difference here ...

[Tender Branson]

From what I understand, Drahos will only net another 150K votes in Prague (25% counted, up 50K).

But the current nationwide Zeman-lead is more than 200.000, so Drahos will also need to net some additional votes in the rural areas ...

This seems tough.

[Tender Branson]

It seems that Zeman has this in the bag.

I predict him to win by a 51.4-48.6 margin in the end.

The medium-sized cities will make the difference.

Whereas in Austria they went to VdB with the same margin as Vienna, in the Czech Rep. they are voting more like rural areas ...

[Tender Branson]

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.

No, 140K - because Zeman is also getting votes.

[Tender Branson]

The runoff map will look like GA, just without the black belt ...

[Tender Branson]

My updated projection:

Zeman will win with 51.7-51.9% in the end.

Or with a 185.000 vote margin.

[Tender Branson]

89% counted, 53/47. 63% counted in Prague.

This is over.

Zeman wins re-election.

[Tender Branson]

Czech media outlets are calling it for Zeman now.

Quite surprising and weird that the Czechs would re-elect an old, Russophile alcoholic ...

I really thought Drahos would win this as a checks and balances candidate/option.

[Tender Branson]

Voting results of big cities:

Prague + suburbs (1.6 million people): 65-70% Drahos (even the suburbs were 65% Drahos)

Brno (380.000 people): 58% Drahos, but the suburbs were 52% Zeman

Ostrava (324.000 people): 62% Zeman, suburbs: 70% Zeman

Plzen (190.000 people): 52% Drahos, suburbs: 58-60% Zeman

Liberec (104.000 people): 51% Drahos

Olomouc (100.000 people): 54% Zeman

---

Zeman did really well in the rural areas bordering Germany (Saxony) and Poland.

[Tender Branson]

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

[Tender Branson]

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

Wow...that would mean I was only .2% off in my prediction

Anyway, it’s a shame Drahoš couldn’t pull it off in the end

A) Congrats

B) Yeah. Drahos really underperformed in the medium-sized cities relative to Van der Bellen.

[Tender Branson]

Here is a clickable map:

http://widget.ctk.cz/stat/prezvolby18k2/iframe.php

Kraje = region

Okresy = district

Obce = precinct/town

The correlation map is also pretty cool.