MD-Primary Sept 12

[Sam Spade]

I don't know whether they're holding results until 9:00 PM because of the ballot problems in Mont.Co and Baltimore City which caused the polls there to be open late.  The other polls close @ 8:00 PM.

[Sam Spade]

For results, see here:

http://cbsdmg.com/elections/wjz/20060912/race300.shtml

So far, Cardin 47%, Mfume 22%, Rales 12% with about 500 votes in. 

[Sam Spade]

Some blacks must have just been counted.

[Sam Spade]

It is very hard to tell where the votes are coming in from right now, but I would predict that Mont. Co. and Baltimore City report last, probably in that order.

[Sam Spade]

Do we have any reliable results from AZ-08 yet?  That's the other big race of the evening.

[Sam Spade]

AZ-08 is very close, in case you haven't been paying attention.

http://www.azsos.gov/results/2006/primary/REP-1008.htm

Graf leads 40.5% to 39.0% over Huffman.

[Sam Spade]

AZ-08 is very close, in case you haven't been paying attention.

http://www.azsos.gov/results/2006/primary/REP-1008.htm

Graf leads 40.5% to 39.0% over Huffman.

I have. The remaining precincts are anti-immigration areas that will support Graf. I hope my prediction of a Graf win will make up for my blunder in the Chafee race.

It has been at 40% Graf/39% for like an hour now. What in the world is taking them so long?

The Republicans have to make sure that the Diebold machines are giving them the "correct" results.

[Sam Spade]

I tend to think the race probably favors Graf right now.  Cochise is his base.  The real question is what precincts from RINO heaven Pima County are left to report.

[Sam Spade]

BREAKING NEWS: Randy Graf won!

This is what the "Arizon 8th Blog" say "With 60% of Cochise County reporting 48% to 34% Randy Graf over Steve Huffman."

It's now mathematically impossible for Huffman to win.

Democrats just picked up a House seat!

http://arizonaeighth.blogspot.com/

That is only the result within Cochise County.  It will result in Graf picking up about 1,100 votes, if the stats I got on the other site are correct.

Graf will lead by about 1,650 votes with 93 precincts outstanding from Pima Cty. (Tuscon)

[Sam Spade]

BREAKING NEWS: Randy Graf won!

This is what the "Arizon 8th Blog" say "With 60% of Cochise County reporting 48% to 34% Randy Graf over Steve Huffman."

It's now mathematically impossible for Huffman to win.

Democrats just picked up a House seat!

http://arizonaeighth.blogspot.com/

That is only the result within Cochise County.  It will result in Graf picking up about 1,100 votes, if the stats I got on the other site are correct.

Graf will lead by about 1,650 votes with 93 precincts outstanding from Pima Cty. (Tuscon)

I ran the numbers and calculated that based on the current number of votes it would be nearly impossible for Huffman to win.

Based on my math, Huffman would have to get roughly 60% in the remaining precincts in order to win.  I agree that this is highly unlikely, unless the precincts are of solid RINO stock.

[Sam Spade]

Based on my knowledge of the CD and of the "creationist-supporting" Graf, I would place AZ-08 with Graf as nominee at #3 on the Dem pickup list, ahead of PA-06 and behind only TX-22 and IA-01.

[Sam Spade]

The margin is more around 2,000 now.  Graf will win.

[Sam Spade]

Given that PG County, Mont Co and B-more City are all about 50% in, I'd say that Cardin ends up winning this thing by about 15,000 votes, give or take a few thousand.

[Sam Spade]

Given that PG County, Mont Co and B-more City are all about 50% in, I'd say that Cardin ends up winning this thing by about 15,000 votes, give or take a few thousand.

I like to brag about my ability every once in a while.  Here's one post that nails it, reposted above.

The current results are, with 99.78% reporting and an unknown number of provisional ballots to be counted:

Cardin , Ben    Dem    237,100    43.49
Mfume , Kweisi    Dem    221,939    40.71

Btw, Hotline still correctly points out that Mfume has not conceded.  There's really no way he could make up the margin, but it's interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Just as an update, Mfume has now conceded to Cardin, with fewer ballots left to count than votes to make up.  Cardin won the primary by roughly 13,000 votes in the end.