Wyoming rules (user search)
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Author Topic: Wyoming rules  (Read 688 times)
YE
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Posts: 15,852


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« on: January 27, 2018, 07:28:29 PM »
« edited: January 27, 2018, 10:04:27 PM by YE »



NM-01: Most of Northern and Northeastern New Mexico - Plurality white, with rainbow coalition of Hispanics and Native Americans. D+6, Obama got 60% here so Safe D.

NM-02: Suburbs and Exburbs of Albuquerque + rural Eastern New Mexico. D+3, Obama got 57% here. Likely D,  but could flip in a R wave.

NM-03: Inner Albuquerque. D+9, Obama got 60% in 2008 but this likely has trended D since then. Safe D.

NM-04: Southern New Mexico, and the mandated HVAP seat. Yet, likely since rural Hispanics are a bit more GOP friendly than the D counterparts, evident here, in West Texas, and in Central California, plus many are here illegally, and many can vote, but are young enough where they aren't reliable voters, this is R+7. McCain won this by 4 in 2008. Likely R, only since this could be competitive if Hispanics start voting.
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YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,852


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2018, 10:49:42 PM »





NV-01: Reno, rural Washoe County, plus Carson City and Tahoe Area. Obama easily carried this but Obama's numbers aren't likely to be repeated again statewide as Nevada was devastated by the Great Recession. Still, this is only a R+3 seat, but probably open to the right kind of Democrat. Lean R.

NV-02: Rural areas, and I knew I needed to add suburb of some kind. Added Henderson based on population counts. R+13 largely since rurals outvote Henderson, which leans R at best, and despite being a wealthy suburb, Clinton really didn't do much better here for reasons I can go into for another thread. Safe R.

NV-03: Spring Valley + Paradise + Enterprise. D+7 largely due to the casinos, and Obama hit 59% here, although Trump made gains here. Safe D.

NV-04: Sumerlin, and parts of Las Vegas proper. D+3, with Las Vegas outvoter Summerlin. D wins this most years, but could fall in a wave so Lean D.

NV-05: Hispanic HVAP district, with eastern areas of Las Vegas proper combined with the entire North Las Vegas. D+19, Safe D no questions asked.
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