GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Rookie Yinzer]

I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Rural GA is losing population and it's African-Americans leaving and moving to Metro Atlanta. Abrams did worse than Hillary in South Georgia but still made huge inroads in closing the gap statewide. It's intra-state migration and it's not hurting us statewide. It is what is.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Rural GA is losing population and it's African-Americans leaving and moving to Metro Atlanta. Abrams did worse than Hillary in South Georgia but still made huge inroads in closing the gap statewide. It's intra-state migration and it's not hurting us statewide. It is what is.

Fair points, though I would add that black transplants moving from places like Detroit/Chicago/Baltimore to Atlanta is really what is moving the needle towards us, and rural areas sure as hell have not been helping us out in the Trump era. BTW, I would be interested to hear why y you/ the "Atlas Consensus" think Warnock is so strong-- sure, he might to help gin black turnout, but what about Asians/Hispanics who were so crucial to Abrams.

I don't think the intra-state migration is doing anything to close the gap because they already live here lol I was saying it's not hurting our margins statewide doing worse in South GA because them moving is making the Metro more Democratic.

Nothing about Abrams was unique to make Asians and Hispanics turn out the way they did. She just embraced these groups, had them in prominent senior positions on her campaign, ran Spanish language ads, had literature/GOTV materials in Spanish, Vietnamese, Mandarin, Korean, Tagalog, etc. She really dived in down to the precinct level to milk every Democratic vote she could. Warnock, who will likely be endorsed by Abrams from day one will presumably be following her statewide template.

He's also just a strong speaker. Like I'm not religious AT ALL but he's able to connect it to the moral failings of poverty in a way that just inspires me without beating me over the head with it. He is tailor made for a state like GA with a heavy religious black population but a young, transplant, less/non-religious bloc of votes.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1221954060754071554

This therefore means HB 757 is likely to be a go, and we're getting normal primaries for both seats.

Thinking the same thing. Good!

[Rookie Yinzer]

I thought Kemp was going to veto the change?

The Dems + GOP Collins allies will override. House Speaker Ralston has all but endorsed Collins. I believe the special will have partisan primaries in May.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I almost couldn’t watch this ad. She’s so wooden and fake. Collins will mop the floor with her in a debate.

[tweet] https://twitter.com/kloeffler/status/1222191950645858304?s=21

If we have partisan primaries she will lose by 50 points. I can legit see Collins get 80-90 percent throughout rural GA.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins is perhaps the best possible microcosm of the Trump era.

And a really good luck for Democrats tbh.

Will Warnock have trouble with Tarver in his primary?

Nope. Tarver is from Augusta, Warnock has high name rec in the ATL media market and an Abrams endorsement waiting in the wings. He has this thing locked up. Can't wait to vote for him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1222836858121531393?s=20

https://warnockforgeorgia.com/

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/dscc/status/1223305349475786752?s=20

#DROPOUTLIEBERMAN

[Rookie Yinzer]

I......

[Rookie Yinzer]

Wouldn't be surprised if she's forced to drop out after this

I'll be contacting her office tomorrow demanding her resignation, and encourage all the other Georgians here to do the same (and tell your friends!)

Same.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1249985998324293634?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

No, they need to force Warnock to drop out and endorse Lieberman (i.e. the strongest - or rather, least weak - Democrat running).  Of course, they should be spending on the regular Georgia Senate race since unlike Warnock or Lieberman, Osoff actually has a chance of winning even if it's a long shot and the money would be much better spent on Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and (if Kobach is the Republican nominee) Kansas.

The candidate who has $1 million more cash on hand, endorsed by the largest vote getting Democrat in the state’s history, and to be frank- the candidate who is Black in a state where 2/3 of the votes Democrats will get in November and a run off will be Black needs to drop out because of some polls six months out when NO ONE has been campaigning? Nah.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She’s doomed politically regardless. She was already a woman and completely out of touch with the KKK hicks in north and South Georgia so whatevs.

Her not being held criminally liable will be a disgrace.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hopefully Taver doesn't have a big ego and drops out.

And Lieberman. If he remains in past August, he is ego-driven and self-serving.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hopefully Taver doesn't have a big ego and drops out.

And Lieberman. If he remains in past August, he is ego-driven and self-serving.

If he's polling ahead of Warnock while remaining in, I think there's a fairly strong case for arguing he has a stronger campaign.

Warnock has more money and will be a more formidable candidate one-on-one with Collins. Polls when nobody has been campaigning other than Kelly Loeffler's tragic ads means very little to me.

[Rookie Yinzer]

That's why it irks the hell out of me when "pols" on Twitter like Niles say people like Warnock were bad picks because their fundraising has been lower and they're less visible. Fam, there's been a pandemic the last 3 months, and that's right after he announced. How the hell was he was supposed to be visible?

This and honestly he needs to be stockpiling cash for the general. He would have just confused voters in the Perdue primary. Ossoff is subtly with Warnock (not an outright endorsement, but retweeted a tweet about them both winning in Nov). Lieberman is a nobody in GA and white. He's not going to the second round against Collins. Period.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1278689369650614272?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is Loeffler trying to lose at this point? Her feud with the WNBA and Black Lives Matter is going to turn away any possible chance at *any* moderate Republicans voting for her.

She's trying to win hicks and become a conservative martyr to get into the runoff.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah, Warnock can take either one of them in a runoff. Even if Biden wins. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

I wish Lieberman would drop out. The worst possible outcome would be an all Republican runoff.

One could just as easily say the same thing about Warnock.

Not really. Lieberman is delusional and will not galvanize the base (Black people) in a January run off. He will remain because of this insignificant polling but he should exit the race.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warnock is going to make the run off. Handwringing about him/Dems being locked out is just that.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1296021588333096960?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

I just don't understand why he waited so long. The ad is simple, homey and makes him out to be a compassionate moderate. If he'd ran it in April the field would clear. Literally all he had to do was introduce himself, why now?

The pandemic and not wanting to confuse voters with the primary for the other seat going on?

I think they’ve pretty much resigned themselves to a runoff anyway so they’re slow walking it and timing everything just right for a top 2 finish.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Have Stacey Abrams or any other big GA Democrats done much lifting for Warnock?

As important as TV ads surely some zoom events or fundraisers with national democrats would help a bit?

Stacey has been doing plenty behind the scenes. This race has 20 people on the ballot, it's going to a run off. Warnock is making a play for a top two spot and going all in for the run off. All the handwringing in this thread is just that.

Nobody could point Lindy Miller out in a lineup but she got 48 percent in a run off in 2018. I don't know why folks are losing their sh**t about a candidate who will have millions + a sh!t ton of media attention not doing enough according to their schedule.