Texas is also a state with low turnout, where Dems seem to have more overall potential with non-voters.
And therein lies their problem, because they barely got the overall statewide margin to budge in 2020 despite heightened enthusiasm levels across the board, not to mention favourable turnout patterns. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice again in that regard this fall.
I have a hard time seeing how anyone can seriously argue this point - Texas turnout patterns in 2020 were clearly favorable to Republicans as has been the case for quite a while. The only high turnout Democrat area of Texas is Austin and if you equalize turnout across precincts, you actually get a narrow Biden win. Biden also won precincts worth more people than Trump in TX by a couple million.