What are the odds that Toomey will be the next junior Senator from PA?

[Lief 🗽]

The odds just went up, but they're still less than 30%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Quite low now. I wonder if Phil will still argue that the moderate Republicans in the southeast will still vote for Toomey.

[Purple State]

The odds just went up, but they're still less than 30%.

Why has it gone up. Specter probably won't be primaried by the Democrats and can Toomey beat Specter in a general election?

[Lief 🗽]

The odds just went up, but they're still less than 30%.

Why has it gone up. Specter probably won't be primaried by the Democrats and can Toomey beat Specter in a general election?

I think he has a better chance of beating Specter than he did a strong Democrat. Specter's re-elect numbers are terrible, this makes him look like a flip-flopping opportunist, Toomey will no longer have to run to Specter's right in the primary before moving back to the center, etc.

[Torie]

The odds just went up, but they're still less than 30%.

Why has it gone up. Specter probably won't be primaried by the Democrats and can Toomey beat Specter in a general election?

I think he has a better chance of beating Specter than he did a strong Democrat. Specter's re-elect numbers are terrible, this makes him look like a flip-flopping opportunist, Toomey will no longer have to run to Specter's right in the primary before moving back to the center, etc.

Ya, that is my instinct. Toomey's chances may just have blipped up a bit. Arlen's antics make him look "terrible" really. He should have thought through this in private, including on card check, without in public doing this opportunistic vacillative act, that makes him look like a desperate old man.

[Keystone Phil]

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

I've explained this countless times! That primary would have been much different than a General. My points were based on thirty years of anger with Specter, Toomey's strengths, the absence of Specter's big conservative backers, etc.

You can't compare that type of primary with the climate for a General...unless you were entertaining the idea that the climate would change so drastically within the GOP and tons of PA Republicans would become moderate/left leaning.

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And the initial reaction means nothing. Nothing.

I wasn't actually referring to anything specific. I haven't been here long enough to become accustomed to your predictions. But what is the point of having this forum on off years if we can't give our initial reactions and long-term predictions? Rather than yell about how it's too far out, why not join the discussion and make it more productive?

Initial reactions are fine. Predicting with such arrogance so far out...

Now with Specter as a Democrat.... 0.00000000001%

Indeed

...is wrong.

Quite low now. I wonder if Phil will still argue that the moderate Republicans in the southeast will still vote for Toomey.

They may not like this opportunism and may end up disliking Obama/the Dems. Unlike you, I don't pretend to know the environment a year ahead of time.

[Eraserhead]

I basically agree with Lief's analysis and think that Toomey's chances have improved a little. It's going to be tough to get Democrats excited about Specter. He's the favorite though, obviously.

[Lunar]

Phil, we'll have to see a poll, but assuming Specter's popularity overall stays as high as it was, how does an incumbent centrist Senator with Specter's kind of war chest lose to an overwhelmingly conservative former Congressman in a state that ideologically strongly leans towards the incumbent?  History says this never happens but the future could be different (if labor refuses to campaign for Specter...)

[Rob]

Phil, we'll have to see a poll, but assuming Specter's popularity overall stays as high as it was, how does an incumbent centrist Senator with Specter's kind of war chest lose to an overwhelmingly conservative former Congressman in a state that ideologically strongly leans towards the incumbent? 

Because Pennsylvania is McCain/Palin country.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'd give him a 20-30% chance of winning. If things do not change, and Obama's approvals remain at 60% or so come 2010, Specter is reelected fairly comfortably in a general over Toomey. If Obama and the Democrats are seen as screw ups, Toomey will have a chance. Suffice it to say, I'm not confident in Mr. Toomey's chances.

[Badger]

Toomey may not be as controversial as Santorum circa 2006, he's easily more so than Santorum 1994, and a PA institution like Specter is going to be an infinitely tougher candidate than Harris Wofford. The Democrat base will rally behind Specter just fine regardless, and particularly with Toomey as an opponent. Specter will seek to deflect charges of flip-flopping or betraying his principles by claiming "I didn't leave the GOP, it left me", and Toomey's the perfect foil for that argument. Unions will likewise get on board notwithstanding his current opposition to EFCA. There are too many other votes missing other than Specter's to beat a filibuster (Lincoln, Pryor, Nelson, maybe Landreau). As others here have commented there will likely be some compromise labor will accept and will get passed in some form with Specter's support.

No, we don't know what conditions will be like in 2010, but baring a health scare it will have to be a GOP year at LEAST equivalent to 1994 for Toomey to have a chance. If Gerlach winds up the nominee, call it somewhere between 1994 and 2002 for him to have a shot.

[Lunar]

Phil, we'll have to see a poll, but assuming Specter's popularity overall stays as high as it was, how does an incumbent centrist Senator with Specter's kind of war chest lose to an overwhelmingly conservative former Congressman in a state that ideologically strongly leans towards the incumbent?  History says this never happens but the future could be different (if labor refuses to campaign for Specter...)

You know what else makes the odds of Toomey winning lesss?  Rep. Gerlach and Lt. Governor Scarnati are both contemplating running against Toomey in the primary.



http://www.politicspa.com/PressRelease.aspx?PRID=39488
from Scanati: "“Now is the time for Republicans to find a candidate who can successfully articulate the Republican brand of reform and fiscal restraint,” Scarnati added. “In addition, we must find a candidate who can effectively challenge the Democratic nominee, whoever it may be.”"


http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20090428_7296.php

Today's stunning decision by Sen. Arlen Specter to switch his affiliation from Republican to Democratic has shaken up Pennsylvania's two 2010 Senate primaries as well as the general election, state political observers said in the wake of Specter's announcement.

Specter had been facing a tough and likely bitter rematch against former Rep. Pat Toomey for the GOP nomination, with Toomey, a staunch conservative, attacking the moderate Specter aggressively from the right. Specter's sudden switch opens the field for more Republicans to challenge Toomey in the primary, while likely clearing the Democratic field for the five-term incumbent.

"In terms of Pennsylvania politics, this is seismic," said John Micek, state government reporter for the Allentown Morning Call.

Democratic consultant Larry Ceisler said that grassroots Republicans who flocked to Toomey "forced Specter into this box. He has seen the public numbers and the private numbers, and he knew that he just couldn't win a primary election. He also realized how many Republicans flipped to Democratic over the past few years."

On the GOP side, one name drawing informed speculation in the wake of Specter's announcement is Rep. Jim Gerlach, a four-term moderate from southeastern Pennsylvania. Gerlach had been aiming to run for governor in 2010, but several sources said they have reason to believe he might switch to the Senate race.

One Republican source in Pennsylvania added that GOP players are already pushing state Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati, who also serves as lieutenant governor, to run for the Senate seat.

"People will take another look at the race," said Ray Zaborney, a GOP consultant who ran the campaign of 2006 gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann. "I don't expect Toomey to be the only one in. It's easy to be the frontrunner when only two candidates are in the race. The question is, what does he do from here?"

Some suggested that the early grassroots support for Toomey, while daunting for any challenger, would not necessarily be decisive. David Patti, president and CEO of the Pennslvania Business Council, drew a distinction between GOP primary voters and GOP primary funders.

"There are certainly some [of the latter] for whom Toomey might be too conservative on certain issues," Patti said.

Arguably the key challenge for any Republican, several sources said, is how to position oneself in the primary. The GOP base that is assumed to be dominant in the primary balloting had clearly been indicating its preference for the hard-line Toomey over the moderate Specter. This suggests that a centrist such as Gerlach would face an uphill battle.

"If there was room for a moderate Republican in the primary, there would still be one," Micek said.

On the other hand, it would be hard for any Republican to out-conservative Toomey in the primary and still have a chance of winning the general election, sources in the state said.

"The challenge is to pick up the map that Swann and [unsuccessful 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee Mike] Fisher confronted and ask, 'How do I make this look different?'" Zaborney said. Specter, he said, will likely compete in the same relatively compact portion of the Keystone State as Gov. Ed Rendell (D) did twice. Rendell won the governorship both times. "The question is, how does Toomey do better?" Zaborney said.

A more moderate Republican candidate would likely have to argue their case on pragmatic grounds -- that only someone modestly to the right of Specter would have a chance of winning the general election.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, political observers today said that they expect Specter to clear the primary field, at least of serious, mainstream contenders. Not only is he a political legend in the state who has always drawn a significant number of crossover votes from Democrats, but most also assume that he coordinated his decision with Rendell, who by virtue of his position as both a state and national Democratic fundraising powerhouse would be able to clamp down on any challengers' access to money.

The two Democrats who had gone the furthest in putting together candidacies while Specter was a Republican were National Constitution Center CEO Joseph Torsella and state Rep. Josh Shapiro. Despite the state's growing Democratic lean in recent years, either would have been considered an underdog against Specter running as a Republican. Other Democratic House members whose names were periodically floated include Reps. Allyson Schwartz, Joe Sestak and Patrick Murphy, though none had taken serious steps toward running.

If the general election does feature Specter against Toomey, most observers in Pennsylvania say that Specter would be the favorite, although most say that Toomey will run a credible race, especially if the nation sours on Democratic control of the White House and Congress during the economic downturn.

"There are as many blue-collar Democrats who are as upset about the stimulus plan as conservative Republicans," Zaborney said, referring to the massive spending plan drawn up by President Obama and approved by a Democratic-controlled Congress -- with the help of a tiny sliver of Senate Republicans, including Specter.

But even if economic arguments resonate for Toomey, a staunch tax-cutter and supply-sider, social issues would be a heavy burden for him, some said.

"Once he starts talking about social issues" in populous southeastern Pennsylvania, "both the Republican and Democratic electorates -- they're gone," Micek said.

[Torie]

Ya, Lunar, clearly, particularly if polls near primary day, show Gerlach competitive in the General, and Toomey DOA. Ya, I know, that is totally impossible because I don't understand PA, and etc, etc., but still ... .

[Verily]

Changed my vote to less than 10% (from 10-15%). It's now around 5% at most, and most of that 5% is Specter losing the Democratic primary/retiring/dying.

[Lunar]

To win, Toomey needs to tie Specter to Washington and "politics-as-usual" while depressing Democratic turnout, while making himself the "candidate of change" and reform.

lol I'm not sure how much Pennsylvanians want change and reform.  They don't usually like to elect candidates until that candidate has run state-wide two or three times and seem to enjoy pork... plus so much of the vote is driven by machines..

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Option 8

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, we'll have to see a poll, but assuming Specter's popularity overall stays as high as it was, how does an incumbent centrist Senator with Specter's kind of war chest lose to an overwhelmingly conservative former Congressman in a state that ideologically strongly leans towards the incumbent?  History says this never happens but the future could be different (if labor refuses to campaign for Specter...)

You know what else makes the odds of Toomey winning lesss?  Rep. Gerlach and Lt. Governor Scarnati are both contemplating running against Toomey in the primary.



http://www.politicspa.com/PressRelease.aspx?PRID=39488
from Scanati: "“Now is the time for Republicans to find a candidate who can successfully articulate the Republican brand of reform and fiscal restraint,” Scarnati added. “In addition, we must find a candidate who can effectively challenge the Democratic nominee, whoever it may be.”"


http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20090428_7296.php

Today's stunning decision by Sen. Arlen Specter to switch his affiliation from Republican to Democratic has shaken up Pennsylvania's two 2010 Senate primaries as well as the general election, state political observers said in the wake of Specter's announcement.

Specter had been facing a tough and likely bitter rematch against former Rep. Pat Toomey for the GOP nomination, with Toomey, a staunch conservative, attacking the moderate Specter aggressively from the right. Specter's sudden switch opens the field for more Republicans to challenge Toomey in the primary, while likely clearing the Democratic field for the five-term incumbent.

"In terms of Pennsylvania politics, this is seismic," said John Micek, state government reporter for the Allentown Morning Call.

Democratic consultant Larry Ceisler said that grassroots Republicans who flocked to Toomey "forced Specter into this box. He has seen the public numbers and the private numbers, and he knew that he just couldn't win a primary election. He also realized how many Republicans flipped to Democratic over the past few years."

On the GOP side, one name drawing informed speculation in the wake of Specter's announcement is Rep. Jim Gerlach, a four-term moderate from southeastern Pennsylvania. Gerlach had been aiming to run for governor in 2010, but several sources said they have reason to believe he might switch to the Senate race.

One Republican source in Pennsylvania added that GOP players are already pushing state Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati, who also serves as lieutenant governor, to run for the Senate seat.

"People will take another look at the race," said Ray Zaborney, a GOP consultant who ran the campaign of 2006 gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann. "I don't expect Toomey to be the only one in. It's easy to be the frontrunner when only two candidates are in the race. The question is, what does he do from here?"

Some suggested that the early grassroots support for Toomey, while daunting for any challenger, would not necessarily be decisive. David Patti, president and CEO of the Pennslvania Business Council, drew a distinction between GOP primary voters and GOP primary funders.

"There are certainly some [of the latter] for whom Toomey might be too conservative on certain issues," Patti said.

Arguably the key challenge for any Republican, several sources said, is how to position oneself in the primary. The GOP base that is assumed to be dominant in the primary balloting had clearly been indicating its preference for the hard-line Toomey over the moderate Specter. This suggests that a centrist such as Gerlach would face an uphill battle.

"If there was room for a moderate Republican in the primary, there would still be one," Micek said.

On the other hand, it would be hard for any Republican to out-conservative Toomey in the primary and still have a chance of winning the general election, sources in the state said.

"The challenge is to pick up the map that Swann and [unsuccessful 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee Mike] Fisher confronted and ask, 'How do I make this look different?'" Zaborney said. Specter, he said, will likely compete in the same relatively compact portion of the Keystone State as Gov. Ed Rendell (D) did twice. Rendell won the governorship both times. "The question is, how does Toomey do better?" Zaborney said.

A more moderate Republican candidate would likely have to argue their case on pragmatic grounds -- that only someone modestly to the right of Specter would have a chance of winning the general election.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, political observers today said that they expect Specter to clear the primary field, at least of serious, mainstream contenders. Not only is he a political legend in the state who has always drawn a significant number of crossover votes from Democrats, but most also assume that he coordinated his decision with Rendell, who by virtue of his position as both a state and national Democratic fundraising powerhouse would be able to clamp down on any challengers' access to money.

The two Democrats who had gone the furthest in putting together candidacies while Specter was a Republican were National Constitution Center CEO Joseph Torsella and state Rep. Josh Shapiro. Despite the state's growing Democratic lean in recent years, either would have been considered an underdog against Specter running as a Republican. Other Democratic House members whose names were periodically floated include Reps. Allyson Schwartz, Joe Sestak and Patrick Murphy, though none had taken serious steps toward running.

If the general election does feature Specter against Toomey, most observers in Pennsylvania say that Specter would be the favorite, although most say that Toomey will run a credible race, especially if the nation sours on Democratic control of the White House and Congress during the economic downturn.

"There are as many blue-collar Democrats who are as upset about the stimulus plan as conservative Republicans," Zaborney said, referring to the massive spending plan drawn up by President Obama and approved by a Democratic-controlled Congress -- with the help of a tiny sliver of Senate Republicans, including Specter.

But even if economic arguments resonate for Toomey, a staunch tax-cutter and supply-sider, social issues would be a heavy burden for him, some said.

"Once he starts talking about social issues" in populous southeastern Pennsylvania, "both the Republican and Democratic electorates -- they're gone," Micek said.

Scarnati won't run and if you think either of them are a major obstacle to Toomey in the primary, you've lost it. Yes, Gerlach has the electability argument in his favor but he doesn't have the name recognition, respect or organization that Toomey has statewide.

Scarnati is known to be very low key and is only getting a mention because he happened to become Lt. Governor.

Phil, we'll have to see a poll, but assuming Specter's popularity overall stays as high as it was, how does an incumbent centrist Senator with Specter's kind of war chest lose to an overwhelmingly conservative former Congressman in a state that ideologically strongly leans towards the incumbent?  History says this never happens but the future could be different (if labor refuses to campaign for Specter...)

That's a huge assumption and a totally biased question (without entertaining the idea that Obama and the Dems might be unpopular in 2010).

[Lunar]

Obviously every prediction makes assumptions.  Le sigh x 10.  That’s getting a boring comeback to every piece of analysis.  My point is that history sides with the incumbent, wealthy centrist against a challenger who is solidly liberal in a Republican-leaning state, or who is solidly conservative in a Democratic-leaning state.  What’s KAREZEE about pointing out that anything else would be a defying what’s reasonable expected from thus far?

If Arlen’s popularity tanks, sure.  That’s true for every incumbent.  Hell, if Chuck Schumer’s popularity tanks, he could be toast.  I’m trying to be a realist and look at some strong indicators and actually provide analysis beyond “huck huck you can’t even handicap races this far out.”  I'm waiting for some polls, but if his popularity doesn't tank, I just don't see it.  We'll see [as I said].. this is my pre-poll historical notation.


A better response would note that this is already a historically weird scenario with Specter defecting after fake-tilting to the right for the last few months.