Where are Democrats and Republicans gaining votes?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I made this comment in another thread, but I thought it might be relevant here.

2016's biggest nominal R swings were OH, MI, NY, PA, MO, IN, IA, and WI. Since the 1980 census, every single one of these lost electoral votes. After 1980 these added up to 146 EVs. Currently: 120 EVs. And they keep shrinking.

2016's biggest nominal D swings were CA, TX, UT, AZ, MA, GA, VA, and WA. Since the 1980 census, each of these gained EVs (except MA, which has lost 2). After the 1980 census these added up to 135 EVs. Currently: 162. And they keep growing.

So what we have is Trump making huge gains in places that are rapidly becoming less relevant to the electoral math.

Here's our nominal swing map:

Here's our nominal trend map:

GOP popular vote gains are concentrated in Northeast and Midwest states that are rapidly losing EVs, while Democrat vote gains are concentrated in Sunbelt states rapidly gaining EVs.  This leads to a hypothetical GOP Popular / Dem Electoral split:

The Dems get 275 EVs with this map in 2020, but 278 in 2024. Probably over 280 in 2032.

[SingingAnalyst]

Excellent analysis. From 1980 through 2004, areas gaining population were far more Republican than those stable or losing. By 2016, that tendency had reversed itself.

I am a big fan of when in doubt, predict that the trend will continue. So I'd say in 2020, Trump's base will be even more downscale and less educated than it was in 2016; the Dems will continue to gain among the well-off, forward-thinking, and college-educated (many of whom voted 3rd party in 2016). Alas, the 2020 electoral map will be exactly the same. The kind of Democrat nominated in 2024 (and whether 2024 will be anything like 1976) probably has a lot to do with the party's 2020 fortunes, but right now demographics favors the Democrats.

[Non Swing Voter]

Its because the Republican counties gaining population were actually becoming more democratic that entire timeframe then finally flipped around Obama/Trump.  Like Loudoun County VA.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Excellent analysis. From 1980 through 2004, areas gaining population were far more Republican than those stable or losing. By 2016, that tendency had reversed itself.

I am a big fan of when in doubt, predict that the trend will continue. So I'd say in 2020, Trump's base will be even more downscale and less educated than it was in 2016; the Dems will continue to gain among the well-off, forward-thinking, and college-educated (many of whom voted 3rd party in 2016). Alas, the 2020 electoral map will be exactly the same. The kind of Democrat nominated in 2024 (and whether 2024 will be anything like 1976) probably has a lot to do with the party's 2020 fortunes, but right now demographics favors the Democrats.

That's why 2004 Georgia trends have made the state the reddest in the country, agreed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Except for MN and IL, IL has a lot of Latinos, the midwest is becoming more conservative,  while SW, is becoming more liberal, as migration from MW is flooding the SW with a better job market