NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[wbrocks67]

Cunningham raised $7.4 million in Quarter 2, a record for North Carolina.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article244021617.html

Tillis hasn't reported his fundraising yet.

Remember when people kept calling Cunningham a meh recruit? Turns out he's a star recruit imo

[MT Treasurer]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

[wbrocks67]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

He could easily screw it up though if he wasn't good. Turns out he's the exact candidate that fits NC.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

He could easily screw it up though if he wasn't good. Turns out he's the exact candidate that fits NC.

He can still screw it up. Fundraising numbers are a very weak indicator compared to his less-than-stellar polling.

He's probably better than average, but the windowless basement, consultant-driven strategies carries plenty of its own risks (Jeff Jackson would seem to have been a better choice here, but perhaps - as previously alluded to - the DSCC rejected him because of skeletons in the closet) and his relative lack of a previous political record in the state (unlike e.g. Roy Cooper) means he's far from the strongest candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

Finally, someone else gets it

[wbrocks67]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

He could easily screw it up though if he wasn't good. Turns out he's the exact candidate that fits NC.

He can still screw it up. Fundraising numbers are a very weak indicator compared to his less-than-stellar polling.

He's probably better than average, but the windowless basement, consultant-driven strategies carries plenty of its own risks (Jeff Jackson would seem to have been a better choice here, but perhaps - as previously alluded to - the DSCC rejected him because of skeletons in the closet) and his relative lack of a previous political record in the state (unlike e.g. Roy Cooper) means he's far from the strongest candidate.

"less than stellar polling"? He's consistently been up in numerous polls in a state that Trump won in 2016, what?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

He could easily screw it up though if he wasn't good. Turns out he's the exact candidate that fits NC.

He can still screw it up. Fundraising numbers are a very weak indicator compared to his less-than-stellar polling.

He's probably better than average, but the windowless basement, consultant-driven strategies carries plenty of its own risks (Jeff Jackson would seem to have been a better choice here, but perhaps - as previously alluded to - the DSCC rejected him because of skeletons in the closet) and his relative lack of a previous political record in the state (unlike e.g. Roy Cooper) means he's far from the strongest candidate.

"less than stellar polling"? He's consistently been up in numerous polls in a state that Trump won in 2016, what?

The lead hasn't been consistent and it has skewed slightly lower than Biden's more often than not in recent months. It's not remarkably lower and may be mostly down to name ID, but it's hardly the mark of a star recruit (unlike Mark Kelly).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After MT and CO and ME we have AZ, GA, IA and NC. We dont know which others are gonna go D to give Ds 50 seats

McSally, Ernst and Tillis are statistically tied with Ds. Kelly isnt winning by 15 pts either. Hickenlooper isnt winning by 11, more like 4

[brucejoel99]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

So, Kay Hagan 2.0

[Landslide Lyndon]

God damn all those #Resistance moms donating to McGrath instead of giving to other competitive races.

[wbrocks67]

God damn all those #Resistance moms donating to McGrath instead of giving to other competitive races.

Cunningham literally just raised $7M+. Looks like they're donating to all.

[Landslide Lyndon]

God damn all those #Resistance moms donating to McGrath instead of giving to other competitive races.

Cunningham literally just raised $7M+. Looks like they're donating to all.

[S019]

God damn all those #Resistance moms donating to McGrath instead of giving to other competitive races.

Cunningham literally just raised $7M+. Looks like they're donating to all.

It isn't really though, a lot of the people donating to McGrath are for some reason obsessed with trying to win KY. The people donating to places like NC are much more politically active/informed/involved.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

So, Kay Hagan 2.0

I still think it's this seat's Helms Hex.

[Roll Roons]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

So, Kay Hagan 2.0

I still think it's this seat's Helms Hex.

Watch Cunningham take down Tillis this year, and then lost to Madison Cawthorn in 2026.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

So, Kay Hagan 2.0

I still think it's this seat's Helms Hex.

Watch Cunningham take down Tillis this year, and then lost to Madison Cawthorn in 2026.

And then he'll lose to someone else in 2032.

[WD]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

So, Kay Hagan 2.0

I still think it's this seat's Helms Hex.

Watch Cunningham take down Tillis this year, and then lost to Madison Cawthorn in 2026.

And then Cawthorn looses to Dan McCready in 2032.

[Xing]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

True, though that’s pretty much what Tillis was in 2014.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

True, though that’s pretty much what Tillis was in 2014.

Tillis had a much more notable political record.

[Xing]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

True, though that’s pretty much what Tillis was in 2014.

Tillis had a much more notable political record.

Right, but his win was pretty much entirely due to the national environment.

[Lognog]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

True, though that’s pretty much what Tillis was in 2014.

Tillis had a much more notable political record.

Right, but his win was pretty much entirely due to the national environment.

And that's why he won the seat in 2014 in the first place. He was just a pretty unpopular speak of the state house in a Republican leaning state in a wave year for Republicans

[MT Treasurer]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

So, Kay Hagan 2.0

Well, unlike Cunningham, Kay Hagan hadn’t run for statewide office before she jumped into the Senate race. Overall, it’s not a far-fetched comparison, but I don’t see Cunningham doing as well as Hagan (Tillis is controversial but he’s not the inept campaigner that Dole was + NC is a little less "flexible" than it was in 2008).

[brucejoel99]

Is this a joke?

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1282684373259694081

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/politics/thom-tillis-hispanics-masks-coronavirus/index.html

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina is facing intense criticism from some Democratic lawmakers over recent remarks in which he suggested Hispanics are less likely to wear masks and social distance amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In an audio clip posted online by Democratic super PAC American Bridge, Tillis, who is up for reelection this year, said during a virtual town hall on Tuesday, "Just wear the mask out of respect. Now I will tell you I'm not a scientist and I'm not a statistician, but one of the concerns that we've had more recently is that the Hispanic population now constitutes about 44% of the positive cases, and we do have some concerns that in the Hispanic population we've seen less consistent adherence to social distancing and wearing a mask."

Something is very wrong with that statement. It's mostly white people refusing to wear masks and social distance for one, not that Tillis will admit it, and for another, where is he getting that the Hispanic population is 44% of the positive cases of COVID-19 from?

[brucejoel99]

I'm not a scientist and I'm not a statistician

Well, then shut the f**k up, Thom!