NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Given her record, I’m surprised no one on here brought her up if my memory serves correctly.

She was also extremely popular when she left office if memory serves.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Given her record, I’m surprised no one on here brought her up if my memory serves correctly.

She was also extremely popular when she left office if memory serves.

I guarantee less than 10% of people can name their state’s treasurer

Just sayin'

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

Anthony Foxx and Jeff Jackson are sitting out this race...why again?!

Foxx wouldn’t be that a great candidate at this point tbh.  Jeff Jackson should’ve run, but I do think Cunningham can win, especially if 2020 proves to be a bad cycle for Republicans.  Ultimately, this is probably gonna be a tight race that comes down to the national political environment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nate Silver (and various others) speculating that Burr could resign in light of the fact that he sold >$500k in stock before the Coronavirus hit the U.S.; this would trigger a special election in November 2020.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1240813540795191296

Couldn't a Democratic placeholder just say they're switching parties and then get appointed?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Are there any laws on the appointment beyond "it must be of the same party" (in this case, a Republican)?

If there isn't, Cooper should 100% appoint Chris Anglin.

Nope the NC GOP veto overid Cooper and basically let the state GOP committee choose 3 candidates of which the Governor can pick 1. They didn't leave anything behind

I'm sure NC SC can find some excuse to strike down the law.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

Finally, someone else gets it

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/nrsc/status/1298251503942209537?s=21

This is so awful lmao

That was “What Rhymes with Allison Lundergan Grimes?  Liberal Obama mimes.” Level bad

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If I had to guess, Cunningham still wins and this just effects it a tiny bit at the margins.  However, this adds some uncertainty to what’s been a pretty stable race with ~30 days to go and I don’t like that one bit.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Trump's misbehavior, sexually, was long in the past, and at a time when he wasn't thinking of public office.  That doesn't justify what he did, but he certainly appears to have made the decision to clean up his act before running for office.  

He paid hush money to a porn star while he was running for president. But then again I'm sure you knew that.

Stormy Daniels wasn't his finest hour.  The affair, however, occurred in 2006.  I have no problem with Trump paying hush money to Stormy Daniels.  That's not a crime.

I'll be OK with Cunningham blowing this seat preserving the GOP majority, Lyndon.  OK as Oklahoma! 

I’m not defending Trump or Cunningham, but Trump literally committed a federal felony with the hush money payments, so it actually was a crime

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/newsobserver/status/1313230836754460674

This tweet is unavailable

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What worries me is the potential for more shoes to drop.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even if Cal wins, it's Cawthorn's seat in 2026 anyway

If there's a Democratic president, yeah. If there's a Republican in office, all bets are off.

Lol, even in a Democratic midterm, Cawthorn isn't winning a Senate seat.  Republicans may win the seat, but not with him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The thread title should be changed to "The Cheater vs. The Beater".

Or we could...you know...not start slinging around completely baseless, unsubstantiated, and thus far strictly hypothetical domestic violence allegations against Tillis just b/c we don’t like his political views.  Also, the folks in this thread who are clearly hoping Tillis turns out to be a wife-beater should really be ashamed of yourselves.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The thread title should be changed to "The Cheater vs. The Beater".

Or we could...you know...not start slinging around completely baseless, unsubstantiated, and thus far strictly hypothetical domestic violence allegations against Tillis just b/c we don’t like his political views.  Also, the folks in this thread who are clearly hoping Tillis turns out to be a wife-beater should really be ashamed of yourselves.

If you believe Democratic control of the U.S. Senate is integral to the preservation of American democracy and preventing thousands of people from dying because of healthcare costs it's quite logical to hope Tillis is a wife-beater. To be clear, I hope Tillis isn't anybody now, but if it happened in 1979 it happened and whether I want it to be true or not has no bearing on the outcome.

Except that also means hoping his ex-wife is a victim of domestic violence.  I think it’s unjustifiable and morally repugnant to hope a woman was beaten by her ex-husband just b/c you disagree with the latter’s political views, but that’s just me  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wait, now Tillis has a scandal? I had just moved this race from Likely D to Likely R, Tillis underperforming Trump by 5 to overperforming him by 8, but I guess now I have to move it to Titanium D, with Tillis underperforming Trump by 13. My sources tell me that hundreds of thousands of voters in NC went from leaning toward Cunningham to set on Tillis to absolutely set on Cunningham after very carefully following the news cycle of this race and refreshing Twitter every 3.6 seconds.

No, some Democratic hacks are trying to conjure up a domestic violence scandal despite no evidence or even accusation of such a thing having ever occurred. 

I know, I'm making fun of the immediate overreaction.

Fair enough

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even the divorce attorney for Tillis's ex-wife says this is a non-story.

So just as meaningless as Cunningham's story.

No, Cunningham’s is a legit scandal

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Uh, can everyone calm down please? Anyone who has seen the texts knows that this is no “scandal”

Yes, it is

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

oh lord

What now?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

What Cunningham did was a far worse scandal, regardless of who you want to win.  Plus, Tillis quarantined as soon as he learned he'd tested positive.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

What Cunningham did was a far worse scandal, regardless of who you want to win.  Plus, Tillis quarantined as soon as he learned he'd tested positive.

How is a personal indiscretion worse than not caring about the lives of other people?

Maybe if Cal Cunningham cared more about his own family's lives, he wouldn't be in this situation.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/josh_posts/status/1315773909309030400

Celebrating adultery and home-wrecking to own the cons.  Guess it just goes to show that there are plenty of shameless partisan hacks in the Democratic Party too.  

Actually, it's even worse than that.  You can want Cunningham to win despite his scandal because this could be the tipping point seat for control of the Senate.  Fair enough, but that doesn't change the fact that Cunningham is a lying, pathetic excuse for a human being.  What he did was unjustifiable and utterly reprehensible.  A Democratic Senate majority is worth tolerating him for six years, but that doesn't make Cunningham any less of a deplorable scumbag.

Moreover, celebrating him for being a home-wrecking adulterer just because he happens to be a Democrat is precisely the sort of morally bankrupt partisan hackery that folks here are always complaining about whenever Trump supporters say they don't care about Trump's scandals.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/josh_posts/status/1315773909309030400

Celebrating adultery and home-wrecking to own the cons.  Guess it just goes to show that there are plenty of shameless partisan hacks in the Democratic Party too.  

Actually, it's even worse than that.  You can want Cunningham to win despite his scandal because this could be the tipping point seat for control of the Senate.  Fair enough, but that doesn't change the fact that Cunningham is a lying, pathetic excuse for a human being.  What he did was unjustifiable and utterly reprehensible.  A Democratic Senate majority is worth tolerating him for six years, but that doesn't make Cunningham any less of a deplorable scumbag.

Moreover, celebrating him for being a home-wrecking adulterer just because he happens to be a Democrat is precisely the sort of morally bankrupt partisan hackery that folks here are always complaining about whenever Trump supporters say they don't care about Trump's scandals.

We are laughing about him being up in the polls as a result but I don't think anyone here holds him in higher regard for his reprehensible (and hilariously cringeworthy) behaviour. I guess some of these memes stray close to 4chan-esque celebration of Access Hollywood but for the most part they are just poking fun at the doomers and the people arguing this provides a good reason to switch to supporting Tillis for most Cunningham voters.

I hope I haven't implied otherwise at any point and am probably going to support a 2026 primary challenge.

I assumed it was just kidding around at first, but there have been so many posts to this effect that it was starting to get hard to tell if some folks really did think he should be held in high regard for what he did or at least that there was nothing wrong with it.  If it's just laughing about him still leading Tillis then fair enough, b/c that is hilarious

https://twitter.com/josh_posts/status/1315773909309030400

Celebrating adultery and home-wrecking to own the cons.  Guess it just goes to show that there are plenty of shameless partisan hacks in the Democratic Party too.  

Actually, it's even worse than that.  You can want Cunningham to win despite his scandal because this could be the tipping point seat for control of the Senate.  Fair enough, but that doesn't change the fact that Cunningham is a lying, pathetic excuse for a human being.  What he did was unjustifiable and utterly reprehensible.  A Democratic Senate majority is worth tolerating him for six years, but that doesn't make Cunningham any less of a deplorable scumbag.

Moreover, celebrating him for being a home-wrecking adulterer just because he happens to be a Democrat is precisely the sort of morally bankrupt partisan hackery that folks here are always complaining about whenever Trump supporters say they don't care about Trump's scandals.

By that definition, most of the people in the US outside of innocent children like myself are bad people. I think what he was wrong, but there are so so many folks who cheat in their life. It’s only because he’s under the microscope that makes him get so much hate for it. Again, not saying his actions weren’t bad, but I don’t think this by itself makes him a terrible human overall.

Please cite.  I don't think that's true that most people cheat on their spouses, but if it is, then they're bad people, especially if they have children.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/josh_posts/status/1315773909309030400

Celebrating adultery and home-wrecking to own the cons.  Guess it just goes to show that there are plenty of shameless partisan hacks in the Democratic Party too.  

Actually, it's even worse than that.  You can want Cunningham to win despite his scandal because this could be the tipping point seat for control of the Senate.  Fair enough, but that doesn't change the fact that Cunningham is a lying, pathetic excuse for a human being.  What he did was unjustifiable and utterly reprehensible.  A Democratic Senate majority is worth tolerating him for six years, but that doesn't make Cunningham any less of a deplorable scumbag.

Moreover, celebrating him for being a home-wrecking adulterer just because he happens to be a Democrat is precisely the sort of morally bankrupt partisan hackery that folks here are always complaining about whenever Trump supporters say they don't care about Trump's scandals.

Don't hurt yourself coming down from your high horse.

don't act like it's the 50's. Marriages fail. Private life is different public life. lets just focus on policy

Defending adultery and home-wrecking to own the cons.