NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[S019]

Ultimately, this race is Lean R, Democrats will likely not carry North Carolina and I doubt North Carolina has enough Trump-Dem voters to oust an incumbent senator. Josh Stein would give Tillis a run for his money and would have won had this been 2004 or even 2012, but in 2020 polarization will probably help Tillis squeak this one out.

[S019]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

Edwards may have won in 2004, but the scandals and the GOP wave would led to him losing by Landrieu or Pryor margins in 2010

[S019]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

Edwards may have won in 2004, but the scandals and the GOP wave would led to him losing by Landrieu or Pryor margins in 2010

Edwards scandal came out in 2008 long after his reelection, but he would have lost narrowly to Burr in 2004.

I said in 2010, he would have lost badly

[S019]

He is favored to win, because Trump will probably carry this state, if the nominee is Biden, Tillis is in real trouble, but someone like Kamala Harris would not win NC, and Tillis would be fine
Also if Jackson doesn’t run, who will the Democrats run?
I doubt Fox is interested, Deborah Ross is damaged goods, so maybe, Vi Lyles
If Roy Cooper forgoes reelection, this will get interesting
Until there is a clear candidate, Tilt R

[S019]

Obviously this vote doesn't matter but Pelosi can call for a revote. The only democrat this vote hurts is Doug Jones who will lose anyway.

This vote also hurts Gardner, who is a Republican in Colorado, which is quickly becoming inhospitable anyway Gardner is close to doomed

[S019]

Biden, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, and Gabbard would win NC, everyone else would lose, I don’t think Tillis loses unless either Trump loses NC or wins it by less than 1, which would only happen with the above candidates

[S019]

It's baffling we have a stronger field running for Lt. Gov than Senate. Hopefully this ends up like WI-GOV and we end up with a ton of candidates actually running.

The Democratic recruitment failure this cycle is laughable. I read a Politico article not too long ago about Schumer's plan to become Majority Leader, but all of the recruitments, except AZ and probably GA are falling apart. In AZ, the long primary will lead to a divided party, the Democrats should wait until 2022 for the Senate, they should get it back in a Trump second midterm, but who knows, if their recruitment is like this cycle.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1116103138535198720?s=21

I have to imagine the nomination is pretty much his for the taking if he jumps in. No other A-list candidates seem to be biting.

Certaintly a strong candidate

But I don’t see Tillis with any glaring weaknesses, I think Trump will carry Tillis over the top, Senate races are very polarized and NC is still Tilt/Lean R, Tillis is Generic R and this helps in a state like NC, if the Dem carries NC, they will carry Jackson across the finish lind

[S019]

Lean R——>Tilt R

Jackson is a strong candidate, but I just don’t really think he’s this unbeatable titan, if the Democrat wins NC, they drag Jackson over the finish line, but I really just don’t see him running that much ahead of the Democrat. I think to be honest, Tillis, Gardner, and McSally, are underrated by this site, and Peters, and especially Shaheen, are overrated. Plus, how much name recognition does Jackson have in North Carolina, he’s also from Charlotte, so not a real geographic advantage. Plus, I just don’t see Tillis being as weak and unpopular as McCrory, especially when North Carolinians are voting on the Trump agenda and not ona transgender bathroom bill that sent businesses out of the state. Plus, NC Democrats seem to have real success in Governor races. But please, let’s stop treating Thom Tillis like he is Elizabeth Dole.

[S019]

Jackson can beat Tillis 51-47 and could be a Dem White Veep in 2024 or 2028 for a older candidate or a minority presidential candidate

Yeah, Jackson could be like Kander, but in a much less red state. He'd almost certainly outperform the Democratic presidential nominee, which should be enough.

The difference is this is NC, not MO, Senate Leadership Fund, NRSC, Club for Growth, etc., will spend millions here painting Jackson as a liberal, also Senate races are more polarized than Governor races. Tillis should take this seriously, Jackson will come close, but won’t get over the top

[S019]

If Jackson does make the plunge, this race moves automatically to tossup. He’s practically the best candidate Dems could hope for.

WRONG, that’s Josh Stein or Roy Cooper, neither of whom, are running

[S019]

If he runs, he will win. Jackson is the perfect Democrat for NC. 

2014: Kay Hagan beat “strong candidate” Elizabeth Dole and outran Obama, also Tillis is a “very weak candidate,” Hagan will win re-election and probably be Senator for life

Again let’s not forget Tillis is no Elizabeth Dole, and Jackson is not Kay Hagan, he is about Erskine Bowles-tier, but will lose by 1-2, instead of 5-7, because NC is much more Democratic now, than it was in 2002 or 2004

[S019]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

I don’t think NC is a done deal, Tillis is certainly not Elizabeth Dole, Kay Hagan was a strong candidate who outran Obama by a significant margin and only narrowly lost in a red wave. Tillis himself had to be a strong candidate to topple her, while he is overrated, he is not Elizabeth Dole. Also in AZ, I just do not see many Trump-Kelly voters, if Trump loses AZ, McSally’a done. Also in CO, Gardner is not doomed, and could beat someone like Neguse

[S019]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Lean R--->Tilt R

But whoever emerges from the primary, her or Jackson will be damaged and should give Tillis An advantage, of course Jackson could pull a Ruben Gallego, and opt out of a competitive primary, or he was writing a speech that he wasn't running at all.

Anyway, looking forward to the brutal Democratic Senate primary in North Carolina

[S019]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Given her record, I’m surprised no one on here brought her up if my memory serves correctly.

It's because everyone expected Stein or Jackson, but still a good recruit, and not one that I have heard linked to Schumer, so the recruitment failure in NC did not materialize, but Schumer should tell Jackson "never mind," if he wants to avoid a brutal primary

[S019]

Tilt R, with Jackson

Tossup, with Cowell


Jackson is hilariously overrated on this site, can anyone tell me what makes him a good candidate. He only did about two points in 2016, than Democrats did in this seat in this 2012. While you could say oh, he would have done 3.5 points better, if 2016 and 2012 had the same national environment, you have to remember, that his seat is in rapidly D-trending Mecklenburg County, which was 7 points more Democratic in 2016 than 2012, even though the national environment swung 2 points more Democratic, so Mecklenburg trended 9 points Democratic, while Jackson's district only trended 4 points, therefore, he should underperform the Democratic baseline by 5, but because Tillis is. a weak candidate, it should be by more like 2-3, so Trump wins NC by 2 in 2020, Jackson loses by 4-5, but NC is quite polarized, so Jackson loses by more like 2-4.

[S019]

God damn all those #Resistance moms donating to McGrath instead of giving to other competitive races.

Cunningham literally just raised $7M+. Looks like they're donating to all.

It isn't really though, a lot of the people donating to McGrath are for some reason obsessed with trying to win KY. The people donating to places like NC are much more politically active/informed/involved.

[S019]

Isn't Tillis main issue that rural voters distrust him and thus they probably vote for Trump, but leave Senate blank? I'm sure there are some Biden/Tillis voters, but they really shouldn't occur in any sizable amount