Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[Mr.Phips]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112256.0

Well, I guess it was done before redistricting. But Northam's district seems to be more a "toss up district" than a "lean rep district". Tilt rep maybe.

It has a good Dem lean to it after redistricting.  Obama and Kaine both got about 58% and even the statewide Dem candidates who were getting their brains beaten in statewide in 2009 came close to winning here (the lt. Gov candidate actually won it while losing statewide by 14 points).

[Mr.Phips]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112256.0

Well, I guess it was done before redistricting. But Northam's district seems to be more a "toss up district" than a "lean rep district". Tilt rep maybe.

It has a good Dem lean to it after redistricting.  Obama and Kaine both got about 58% and even the statewide Dem candidates who were getting their brains beaten in statewide in 2009 came close to winning here (the lt. Gov candidate actually won it while losing statewide by 14 points).

Have you the new PVI for the virginia state senate please?

SD-01:  D+6
SD-02:  D+19
SD-03:  R+13
SD-04:  R+11
SD-05:  D+23
SD-06:  D+6
SD-07:  R+2
SD-08:  R+5
SD-09:  D+21
SD-10:  EVEN
SD-11:  R+9
SD-12:  R+7
SD-13:  R+5
SD-14:  R+10
SD-15:  R+12
SD-16:  D+18
SD-17:  R+2
SD-18:  D+15
SD-19:  R+13
SD-20:  R+3
SD-21:  D+5
SD-22:  R+6
SD-23:  R+18
SD-24:  R+16
SD-25:  D+8
SD-26:  R+13
SD-27:  R+11
SD-28:  R+9
SD-29:  D+8
SD-30:  D+16
SD-31:  D+12
SD-32:  D+12
SD-33:  D+6
SD-34:  D+7
SD-35:  D+17
SD-36:  D+12
SD-37:  D+7
SD-38:  R+12
SD-39:  D+7
SD-40:  R+20

Democrats amazingly hold the 38th in coal country, but the next reddest they hold is D+5.

[Mr.Phips]

If Herring wins however, Republicans can be theoretically considered strong favourites to pick up his senate seat; the Democratic elected base here is virtually non-existant and the GOP has some top-class candidates like Tom Rust who could run (especially if Rust loses his district, which is incidentally the bluest district within Herring's seat at around 60% Obama).

Herring's seat is 60% Obama and the district excludes the parts of Loudoun county that are toxic to Dems.  Think of this seat as one that cobbles together the most Dem parts of Loudoun and also parts of Fairfax(where Dems are much stronger).