UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[jaichind]

Lab gain Putney!

Open seat and heavy remain area.

[jaichind]

Sky forecast 

CON 358-368
LAB  192-202

[jaichind]

Corbyn blames Brexit for LAB defeat

[jaichind]

Blair's old seat Sedgefield captured by CON

[jaichind]

Looks the the exit polls most likely overestimated SNP a bit

[jaichind]

Johnson wins

[jaichind]

Did Johnson thank Lord Buckethead ?

[jaichind]

Jo Swinson loses

[jaichind]

Sky forecast

CON 363-369
LAB  193-199

[jaichind]

Dominic Grieve defeated.  Excellent.

[jaichind]

CON seems to be over-performing in Midlands

[jaichind]

Kensington to Cons.

While losing ground by -3.9%.

Here is where the LAB-LDEM tactical voting broke down.  LDEM ran a strong candidate in an environment where the anti-CON vote is mostly going over to LAB.

[jaichind]

St Ives count had to be suspended due to bad weather.  But it seems that CON will gain some vote share here and win the seat.  So in the end CON should end up with 365 seats overall.

[jaichind]

We're not in America. Stop comparing this to the democrats.

Sure.  But places like Putney and Canterbury going to LAB while the North shifting to CON looks a awful like VA and CO going to Dems while WI PA and MI moving toward GOP.

[jaichind]

We're not in America. Stop comparing this to the democrats.

Sure.  But places like Putney and Canterbury going to LAB while the North shifting to CON looks a awful like VA and CO going to Dems while WI PA and MI moving toward GOP.

But the Northwest and Northeast of England actually have had decades of socialist tradition...they didn't fail to vote for Corbyn's Labour Party purely out of ideology. A left-wing leader with a clear opinion on Brexit and with a clear agenda to combat and expel anti-semitic/hateful members of the party would have done well, I think. It's just that Corbyn came across as so weak on so many issues except fighting austerity, which is an issue that voters had already made their minds up on.

So you think if LAB were led by, say, Ed Millband, the LAB loses up North would have been minor?   

[jaichind]

The fall of LAB+LDEM in Scotland is just amazing.  They went from a combined vote share of 60.9% in 2010 to 28.1% in 2019.

[jaichind]

CON won 13,966,565 votes still barely misses the record set by 1992 CON with 14,093,007 which is the largest number of votes for one party in an election.

[jaichind]

Amazing how if only 18-24 olds voted the CON would win 0 seats.

[jaichind]

In Guildford it seems Anne Milton performed one last favor to her former party to taking enough most likely Remain votes to keep the seat CON despite a surge of support for LDEM.

[jaichind]

Out of the 33 seats the CON lost to LAB or LDEM in 2017, CON recaptured 15 of them.
18 of those 33 seats voted 50% or above for Brexit in 2016: The CON win rate is 13-5 with one of its losses (Beford) being very close.
15 of those 33 seats voted below 50% for Brexit in 2016: The CON win rate is 2-13 with one of the CON victories (Kensington) won due to bad vote coordination between LAB and LDEM.

Of the 5 seats that CON won from LAB in 2017 the total vote shares in those 5 seats in 2017 and 2019 are

             CON      LAB
2017     48.8%   45.2%
2019     61.3%   32.6%

[jaichind]

A couple of interesting facts I found by randomly looking at results

1) Neale Hanvey was the SNP candidate for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath but disowned him when it came out that he had made anti-semitic social media posts in the past.  But but it was too late to remove him from the ballot but SNP called on their supporters not to support Neale Hanvey.  Neale Hanvey ended up winning seat narrowly and capturing the seat from LAB.  So this is sort of a anti-signal on how important the anti-semitic issue really is.

2) In Luton North, the sitting MP Kelvin Hopkins was suspended on accusations of sexual misconduct.  He is also a strong Brexit supporter so he broke with his party both on that issue and the issue of these allegations which he rejects.  He ended up not running as an independent and the LAB was able to retain the seat.  One reason could be that in Luton South next door the sitting LAB MP Gavin Shuker also broke with LAB and was a founder of CHUK and ended up running as an independent with LDEM support.  LAB ended nominating in Luton South Kelvin Hopkins's daughter Rachel Hopkins who went on to win with ease pushing Gavin Shuker to a weak third place.

[jaichind]

Obviously, these figures are a bit crude, but there are two clear takeaways: there needs to be a progressive coalition and 2024 will be won in the traditionally Conservative South. What this means now, is that the Greens, Lib Dems, and Labour need to reach some consensus on a unifying, center-left message which is pro-immigrant, pro-Europe, pro-environment, pro-working and middle class but not anti-business; and consistently hammer the Conservatives on the same talking points. Regardless, trying to win back the small-town postindustrial North isn't going to work.

It seems the best way to do this is for LAB to come out for AV to be implemented without a referendum.  If LAB could not get their MPs to agree to this there is no way they can be persuaded to step down for LDEM or Greens.

[jaichind]

Why do we not put the 2016 Leave vote share next to each constituency   

Guildford
Conservative Bloc 2015: 65.9
Conservative Bloc 2019: 44.9
Swing: 21.0
2016 Leave 41.2

Esher and Walton
Conservative Bloc 2015: 72.6
Conservative Bloc 2019: 49.4
Swing: 23.2
2016 Leave 41.6

Wokingham
Conservative Bloc 2015: 67.6
Conservative Bloc 2019: 49.6
Swing: 18.0
2016 Leave 42.7

Sevenoaks
Conservative Bloc 2015: 74.8
Conservative Bloc 2019: 60.7
Swing: 14.1
2016 Leave 54.0

Tunbridge Wells
Conservative Bloc 2015: 71.3
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.1
Swing: 16.2
2016 Leave 44.7

Runnymede and Weybridge
Conservative Bloc 2015: 73.6
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.8
Swing: 17.8
2016 Leave 49.9

South West Hertfordshire
Conservative Bloc 2015: 68.4
Conservative Bloc 2019: 49.6
Swing: 18.8
2016 Leave 46.2

Surrey Heath
Conservative Bloc 2015: 74.2
Conservative Bloc 2019: 59.7
Swing: 14.5
2016 Leave 51.9

Reigate
Conservative Bloc 2015: 70.1
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.1
Swing: 15.0
2016 Leave 48.0

Chesham and Amersham
Conservative Bloc 2015: 72.8
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.4
Swing: 17.4
2016 Leave 45.0

St Albans
Conservative Bloc 2015: 54.4
Conservative Bloc 2019: 39.2
Swing: 15.2
2016 Leave 37.8

You really think there's nothing here?

This seems more about the Conservative Bloc converging toward the 2016 Leave vote share.  Either these trends are permanent or they are not.  Meaning if we believe there have been a realignment in Remain heavy areas then we have to believe the same for Leave heavy areas.  If we believe these shifts are temporary and LAB could regain some of its seats in the North then some of this convergence above will also reverse itself next time around.

[jaichind]

Some other fun facts:

1. George Galloway lost his deposit in West Bromwich East.
2. So did Chris Williamson in Derby North.

Yeah, I saw that.  Too about about George Galloway.  He is one of the few people on the Left I really admire.  I wonder why BXP stood here?  They should have stepped aside to give George Galloway a clear run at getting the LAB pro-Brexit vote.

[jaichind]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Conservatives
Constituencies won by >25%: 206 (most since 1931)

Speaks to the relative inefficiency of the CON vote in 2019.  2005 LAB was the most efficient allocation of the vote I know of.