Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Poirot]

I am not a fan of the big crescent so I like better the general geography of this version with Outaouais Est. It would depend if cutting the city of Gatineau can be done in an elegant manner. The actual Hull-Aylmer would need about 25,000 to be placed with the other side of Gatineau river. 

[Poirot]

Looking at the proposed Montreal map, when connecting by road from Ile-des-Soeurs (Nun's island) to the rest of the Verdun, you have to go through Ville-Marie because the edge of the Verdun borough is part of Ville-Marie.

Outremont takes in downtown north of Maisonneuve street. I see some Concordia building north of Maisonneuve. If they want a name change they could go for Three Universities (McGill, Concordia, Université de Montréal).  Or more seriously something like Le mont Royal since the riding goes all around it. Outremont is around 25% of the riding anyway, it's more Côte-des-Neiges.

I am still amazed at the Maurice Richard riding. Parts of it come from three boroughs (Ahunstic Cartierville, Villeray Saint-Michel Parc Extension, and Saint-Léonard). Going all the way to take a slice of Saint-Léonard and at the same time Bourassa takes more of the Sault-au-Récollet neigbourhood of Ahunstic than previously.

The southwestern corner of Maurice Richard goes south of highway 40 and turn on Liège. It is just a little territory taken from Papineau and can't find why. The limit between boroughs in that area is the highway.

Maybe Maurice Richard could trade its Saint-Léonard part to Bourassa in return for Sault-au-Récollet.

       

[Poirot]

The Montérégie, south shore of Montreal proposal looks like what I was working on in the west. Minor thing, in Vaudreuil I put 2 more villages in it. Soulanges I had made bigger, maxed to 110,000 people. The proposal is 105,000 people but they broke MRC Haut-Saint-Laurent and I didn't. We both broke MRC Beauharnois at the same place.

My Châteauguay riding was a little less populated but I was leaving room for Kahnawake (population number not in census). The commission put Kahnawake with Lignery.

Now for Longueuil and Chambly areas. In Urbain-Brossard, they put Brossard with a part of Saint-Hubert bordering Brossard and they put part of Greenfield Park that is on one side of Taschereau boulevard.

Saint-Lambert riding has the other part of Greenfield Park (previously Greenfield Park was all in Saint-Lambert) and was added part of Saint-Hubert to increase its low population.

The rest of Saint-Hubert is put in a riding called Montarville with Saint-Bruno. A sort of Saint-Hubert-Saint-Bruno transformed with less St-Hubert and more of other things. Chambly-Borduas riding was too big. So they took Saint-Basile and McMasterville to join Montarville. Also the part of Saint-Julie between highway 20 and Saint-Bruno is in Montarville, that is territory that was in Verchères.

When I was thinking of reducing Chambly I had trouble because I didn't like splitting the MRC Vallée-du-Richelieu in 3 ridings. They don't seem to have that fear. They cut Saint-Hubert in 3 ridings, Greenfield Park and Sainte-Julie in 2.

Saint-Hubert and Greenfield Park are boroughs of Longueuil, they were seperate before the merger. The former city of Longueuil is the borough Vieux-Longueuil. Brossard, Saint-Lambert, Boucherville and Saint-Bruno demerged from Longueuil (so they exist legally) but are part of the Longueuil agglomeration.

My idea is put Brossard and Saint-Lambert together.
For Chambly, remove Marieville and put it in Shefford. Remove the 7,000 from another MRC at the eastern part of Shefford and put them in an Eastern Township riding. Shefford is now 110,631 (at 10% variance so on limit of being big). Remove Saint-Basile, Chambly or the new Ozias-Leduc riding is 102,485.
McMasterville stays with Beloeil, Mont-Saint-Hilaire and Otterburn Park. These 4 are bunched together on the map and seem to form a group.

I would leave Verchères-Les Patriotes intact, no changes, no splitting of Saint-Julie. It is 104,355 people. It has half of Boucherville. I tried to join all Boucherville with another demerged town Saint-Bruno but I would have to add many people to Verchères like put Beloeil in it and break that area apart.

My version of Montarville is Saint-Bruno, Saint-Basile (together 42,843 people) and around 60,000 people from the Longueuil borough of Saint-Hubert.     
 
That leaves around 20,000 to take from Saint-Hubert (taken from the area the commission has put in their Saint-Lambert riding), 17,000 from the borough of Greenfield Park and 60,000 from Vieux-Longueuil. 97,000. I need a name for this one. Longueuil-Taschereau or Longueuil south.

The remaining of Vieux-Longueuil is 78,500. Half of Boucherville in the present and proposed Longueuil riding by the commission is 18,500 by my calculation. Longueuil-Boucherville is 97,000.

The numbers I worked with for Longueuil's boroughs are not official latest census numbers from statistics Canada. I found them on Longueuil's website.

[Wilfred Day]

The new south riding might be viewed as being Vaudreuil. No new name created like Lignery but Vaudreuil-Soulanges had the highest population on the south shore. If they worked like I did, I created a new Vaudreuil and the rest was the domino effect. That is how Lignery appeared.

I imagine you view Vaudreuil has being a shrunk version riding, Soulanges a modified version of Beauharnois-Salaberry, so Lignery with is creating from joining parts that were in two ridings is the new one.

Sylvain Chicoine elected in Châteauguay--Saint Constant lives in Delson, in the Saint-Constant part of Châteauguay--Saint Constant, in the new Lignery.

This leaves no incumbent living in the new Châteauguay, based on the cities of Châteauguay, Léry and Mercier. (It does not include Kahnawake, which is in Lignery.) The new Châteauguay also takes over Saint-Rémi, Napierville etc. from the present Beauharnois-Salaberry riding.

So maybe the new Châteauguay is the "new" riding.

[Wilfred Day]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

The new Quebec provincial map for the coming election has one important difference from the federal maps: under Quebec law they use the number of voters rather than the population. This somewhat delays the loss of representation for greying areas with fewer children. It also differs from the federal count by not counting non-citizens.

http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/english/provincial/electoral-map/maps-of-electoral-divisions-by-administrative-region-2011.php

http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/DGE-6258-VA.pdf

It has the same 25% deviation rule, with similar principles for exceptions. They also have a statutory exemption for the Îles-de-la-Madeleine.

The new map adds three electoral divisions, one in each of the regions encircling the Island of Montreal, i.e. Laurentides-Lanaudière, Laval and Montérégie. It removes three in Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine regions.

The exceptions are not surprising: Ungava, Abitibi-Est, Abitibi-Ouest, René-Lévesque (in Côte-Nord), and Gaspé. Oddly, Rousseau is 26.8% over, while the other half of Montcalm RCM, Masson, is only +1.3% over.  But they didn't try hard, if at all, to stay within 10%. Of the other 119 ridings, 60 have deviations from quotient between 10% and 25%.

[Smid]

The new Quebec provincial map for the coming election has one important difference from the federal maps: under Quebec law they use the number of voters rather than the population.

I've drawn the base map for Quebec elections, if you want to use it - it's in the gallery (under blank maps) and there's also one that I did of notional figures, based on a document put out by Elections Quebec - the link is in the thread on the Quebec election, I think. That map (and others, using the old boundaries) are in the International Elections section of the gallery.

[Poirot]

The 2008 Québec provincial election results put on the new map (including byelections results up to January 2012) is at http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

The provincial map is not as egalitarian as the federal one. The federal commission seems to try to get as many ridings as possible within 5% of the mean. The provincial one put out a new map with ridings already 20% over the mean.

Maxime Bernier, Beauce MP, said he will support the 8 town and villages that have been removed from his riding with redistricting and oppose the plan.

[Smid]

The 2008 Québec provincial election results put on the new map (including byelections results up to January 2012) is at http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

I used the link you posted to convert it into a map:



Bigger version in the Gallery.

[Poirot]

Good work. For those not familiar that colourful map is a provincial electoral map, not a federal district one.

To stay on topic on federal districts, I haven't heard much comments about the northern Montreal suburbs In Laurentides and Lanaudière.

In Mille-Iles I don't like they split Rosemère along a rail track. It is a town of 14,000, so not that big. At first I thought Terrebonne being one riding was great since it has the numbers to be one, but I am thinking maybe being in two ridings would give more possibilities to Mille-Iles and Pierre Le Gardeur to make other combinations.

Saint-Sulpice just east of Repentigny is in Gille-Villeneuve which stops just before Trois-Rivières. It is the only town from MRC L'assomption included. Maybe with another configuration it could be rapatriated with the rest of its MRC.   

[Wilfred Day]

Maxime Bernier, Beauce MP, said he will support the 8 town and villages that have been removed from his riding with redistricting and oppose the plan.

The Commission’s proposal puts the City of Lévis (138,769) in two ridings:

1. The proposed LÉVIS (85,982 in the City of Lévis, and 14,376 in La Nouvelle-Beauce, of whom 6,177 are in the Lévis CMA and are not in the present Beauce riding; but 8,199 are.)

2. The proposed LOUIS-FRÉCHETTE includes 52,787 people in Lévis, and the regional county municipalities of Bellechasse and Les Etchemins (52,572).

Then the proposed BEAUCE includes the regional county municipalities of Beauce-Sartigan and Robert-Cliche (70,250), and the rest of La Nouvelle-Beauce (20,731). But it also includes 12,859 people in Le Granit (the east 58% of its 22,259 people, a weird strip along the American border), who are in the Region of Estrie, not in Chaudière-Appalaches; 1,931 of them are already in Beauce riding, but the other 10,928 are in the present Mégantic - L'Érable. They are left out of the proposed LOTBINIÈRE—MÉGANTIC, which does not, oddly, even include the Town of Lac-Mégantic.

So if Maxime Bernier thinks this is an odd plan, I agree.

Of course, all this tinkering misses the main point: although the Bas-Saint-Laurent—Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine has 294,056 people, which should be three ridings each about 3.25% below quotient, the Commission proposes to squeeze another 41,394 into that region, making 3.31 quotients. 

However, if Bernier wants to keep the 8,199 people in La Nouvelle-Beauce that the Commission proposes to shift to the proposed LÉVIS, good. Right now LÉVIS and LOUIS-FRÉCHETTE have 205,717 people between them, 3% over quotient. Deduct 8,199 and you have two ridings each 2.5% below quotient. At 103,840, the proposed BEAUCE is a little large. Add 8,199 and subtract those 10,928 around the Town of Lac-Mégantic, perfect.

Now LOTBINIÈRE—MÉGANTIC is too big? Deduct 5,693 by shifting the town of Princeville to Richmond—Arthabaska, in Centre-du-Quebec region where it belongs. Still 9% over? Too bad.

[Poirot]

I prefer the Beauce you described. The Mégantic part in Beauce was a bit strange. The city of Lévis map could be changed if they modify the plan with Bas Saint-Laurent / Gaspésie. Unless the goal is to packed the ridings of that region so in ten years they are around average, the commission might change this. What they do impacts Lévis.

I see Gaspésie Iles-de-la-Madeleine being 94,079.
MRC Matapedia, Matane, La Mitis and the town of Rimouski for 106,161. That would split Rimouski from the rest of the MRC Rimouski Neigette and would not please people.
The rest of MRC Rimouski Neigette, Les Basques, Rivière-du-Loup, Kamouraska, Temiscouata for 93,816.

Then there could be MRC Montmagny, L'islet, Bellechase, Les Etchemins. That is 93,966. Would have to add some people from Lévis, like the Pintendre area south of highway 20. Up to 10,000 from the souteast of Lévis. A riding exclusively Lévis with around the average 101,000.

I have a round 25,000 to 30,000 people from Lévis left on the west side and put them with MRC Lotbinière and Appalches (72,737 for those two) and 6,177 from Saint-Lambert-de-Lauzon from MRC Nouvelle-Beauce (was not part of Beauce riding before either).

That puts city of Lévis territority in three ridings. They probably started mapping Lévis because it is more nicely divided. 

[Wilfred Day]

The city of Lévis map could be changed if they modify the plan with Bas Saint-Laurent / Gaspésie. Unless the goal is to packed the ridings of that region so in ten years they are around average, the commission might change this. What they do impacts Lévis.

I see Gaspésie Iles-de-la-Madeleine being 94,079. MRC Matapedia, Matane, La Mitis and the town of Rimouski for 106,161. That would split Rimouski from the rest of the MRC Rimouski Neigette and would not please people. The rest of MRC Rimouski Neigette, Les Basques, Rivière-du-Loup, Kamouraska, Temiscouata for 93,816.

Then there could be MRC Montmagny, L'islet, Bellechase, Les Etchemins. That is 93,966. Would have to add some people from Lévis, like the Pintendre area south of highway 20. Up to 10,000 from the souteast of Lévis. A riding exclusively Lévis with around the average 101,000.

I have a round 25,000 to 30,000 people from Lévis left on the west side and put them with MRC Lotbinière and Appalches (72,737 for those two) and 6,177 from Saint-Lambert-de-Lauzon from MRC Nouvelle-Beauce (was not part of Beauce riding before either).

That puts city of Lévis territority in three ridings. They probably started mapping Lévis because it is more nicely divided.

You’re right, except that we could add Saint-Anaclet-de-Lessard (3,035) to RIMOUSKI—MATANE—MATAPÉDIA—LA MITIS, and still be only 7.8% over quotient (109,196).

That leaves RIVIÈRE-DU-LOUP—KAMOURASKA—TÉMISCOUATA--LES BASQUES with only 5,200 people from Rimouski-Neigette, for a total of 90,781 people (10.4% under quotient).

Now, if you don’t want to have a large part of Levis in a riding with Thetford Mines, here’s a new alternative, based on the Centre de santé et de services sociaux Alphonse-Desjardins which serves Lévis, Lotbinière, La Nouvelle-Beauce and Bellechasse.

LÉVIS has about 102,100 people, just over quotient.

LA NOUVELLE-BEAUCE—LOTBINIÈRE—CHUTES-CHAUDIÈRE has about 101,393 people, right on quotient.

BEAUCE—LES APPALACHES includes Beauce-Sartigan (50,962), Robert-Cliché (19,288 less Saint-Odilon-de-Cranbourne 1,459 = 17,819), and Les Appalaches 43,120, total 111,911 (10.5% over quotient). I shaved off Saint-Odilon-de-Cranbourne because it fits with Les Etchemins and helps bring down that total.

BELLECHASSE--LES ETCHEMINS—MONTMAGNY—L'ISLET has 93,966, and with Saint-Odilon-de-Cranbourne it has 95,425 (5.8% below quotient).

[DL]

The new proposed Saskatchewan map has just been posted:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=sk&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

At first glance it looks like it has been almost perfectly designed to maximize the number of NDP seats in the province. Yippee!

[lilTommy]

The new proposed Saskatchewan map has just been posted:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=sk&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

At first glance it looks like it has been almost perfectly designed to maximize the number of NDP seats in the province. Yippee!

This looks very VERY similar to the 2004 proposals... which i can't find now...

I find Saskatoon Centre-University (terrible name, choose a neighbourhood or something!) slightly messy to me where it crosses the river, taking in the DT but then encompassing southern areas west of the river, then northern areas east of the river? I might call gerrymander if i were a tory cause ya that one is taylor made for the NDP. Saskatoon West is probably a big NDP seat too... and looks odd aswell... anyone with more SASK knowledge know if these ridings make sense?

Moose Jaw is also lumped in with a completely different area of the province (now lumped with Lumsden all the way to Saskatoon) is there any connection with these new areas?

Was there any change to Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River? i think no?

I'm very happy to see they managed two fully urban Saskatoon seats and one fully urban Regina seat and another almost fully urban (Wascana)

Wish i could add more, but i don't know too much about SASK, seems better then what we have now thats for sure! The NDP (espcially Noah Evanchuck will be pleased)

[lilTommy]

Interestingly enough, provincially they are conducting a boundary review; they commission is to add 3 more seats to total 61

http://saskboundaries.com/maps/

[MaxQue]

Was there any change to Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River? i think no?

Yes, but the number of electors moved is probably very low, as it includes nothing but road and empty land. Perhaps a couple of farms.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nice to see less rurban seats. Wonder if they will keep them?

[Hatman 🍁]

Nice:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Smid]

At first glance it looks like it has been almost perfectly designed to maximize the number of NDP seats in the province. Yippee!

Of course, the same could have been said of the old map - the rurban ridings were meant to be won by the NDP.

I find Saskatoon Centre-University (terrible name, choose a neighbourhood or something!) slightly messy to me where it crosses the river, taking in the DT but then encompassing southern areas west of the river, then northern areas east of the river? I might call gerrymander if i were a tory cause ya that one is taylor made for the NDP. Saskatoon West is probably a big NDP seat too... and looks odd aswell... anyone with more SASK knowledge know if these ridings make sense?

I think if you were going to cross the river anywhere, it would make sense to do so on the Northern outskirts, rather than have a riding that stretches from the North-East suburbs to the South-West suburbs, running through the centre of town. That would lead to more compact ridings.

[lilTommy]

Exactly Smid; It makes more sense in terms of compact easyily connected ridings to have:
a) A norhtern riding, maybe using Idylwyld Drive as the border including the downtown and the University; Then a Western riding that combines whats left of Saskatoon West and that south western portion of SCU on the west side of the river. They just make more sense... all depends on how the numbers play out.
b) Two ridings where the River is the dividing line, its a natural boundary anyway. I believe in the 80's they used to have a Saskatoon East and West?

My Only problem with Regina is that Qu'Appelle still contains the DT core area and is still largely rurban. It would make more sense for the Urban riding to contain the core; so use the rail line everything east and south of it, so Albert & Dewdney and Albert & 4th would be in Lewvan. Move suburban areas north of 9th into Qu'Appelle. 

I'm glad its not just an outsiders view that these rurban ridings don't make sense, and i know the NDP fought to keep them, but that was a bad move then and still is now.

[DL]

Its true that the NDP was complicit in having the "rurban" ridings in Sask in the 2003 redistribution - but this time the NDP was lobbying fiercely to have them scrapped. The reality is they cannot be eliminated totally. Saskatoon is no problem because the population of the city is just big enough to create three purely urban ridings (as has been done), but in Regina the city is smaller than Saskatoon and is big enough for about 2.7 ridings - so any ways you slice it - you need to have one remaining "rurban" seat in Regina.

[lilTommy]

Its true that the NDP was complicit in having the "rurban" ridings in Sask in the 2003 redistribution - but this time the NDP was lobbying fiercely to have them scrapped. The reality is they cannot be eliminated totally. Saskatoon is no problem because the population of the city is just big enough to create three purely urban ridings (as has been done), but in Regina the city is smaller than Saskatoon and is big enough for about 2.7 ridings - so any ways you slice it - you need to have one remaining "rurban" seat in Regina.

Yes, its unfortuante but i think they could draw the boundaries out better. The urban core has far less in common with rural sask then the suburbs do. two urban and a "subural" riding would be best for Regina i think.

[DL]

I agree, but ultimately it won't change the fact that unless Goodale retires - the three Regina seats will go CPC-1, NDP-1 and Libs-1...

[Hatman 🍁]

They should have had 3 mostly urban ridings in Regina, or 1 urban and 2 rurban ridings.

[trebor204]

We're still waiting for Ontario (the largest), PEI (the smallest) and Manitoba.
How hard is it divide PEI into 4 ridings?