More likely to flip? IA or CO?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Can the very enlightened posters saying Colorado please tell me where the votes for Donald Trump are coming from? (Presumably the same place all of their other analysis comes from which is their asses?) Are the moderate Jeff Co suburbanites going to get amnesia and forgot that they voted for a progressive governor who ran on guaranteed kindergarten to vote for Donald Trump?

IA isn't likely to flip but the votes are definitely there for the right candidate. "Three Democratic Reps!" is a meme at this point but if you're comparing Iowa to a state where Democrats annihilated Republicans statewide en route to a solid trifecta then it obviously counts for something.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

That question's tricky. 2016 results would point to Colorado, 2018 results would point to Iowa.

I would go with Colorado though as I do believe the 2020 results will be more similar to 2016 than 2018.

How does a D+5 victory for the candidate who did the worst job of turning out the Democratic base in decades suggest that Colorado is likely to flip? It shows that Dems have a high floor there.

Seriously how are you going to get 130K voters who turned out for an anemic Clinton campaign against an unknown quantity in Trump to flip to Trump the known quantity against a (probably) decent opponent?