More likely to flip? IA or CO?

[pbrower2a]

Colorado is long gone for the Republicans due to demographic change (fast-growing Mexican-American vote, lots of educated people moving from California, stagnant rural population). Iowa can get hard by anything that hurts rural America because it is one state particularly connected to agribusiness.

I look at the House vote statewide in Iowa, and I don't see a state swinging rapidly R. I see Iowa close to the national average, maybe slightly R (R+2?).

What keeps me from being a hack on this is that I see Donald Trump is an unmitigated disaster as President. Iowa would be voting for a second term of someone like Jeb Bush or Scott Walker. I see the Democratic nominee getting around 300 electoral votes or 375-425 electoral votes this time because Trump is in the area in which he makes things close or gambles and loses. (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio are going to vote together either for or against Trump).     

[pbrower2a]

Iowa. It voted majority D in the overall election of House members in 2018, suggesting that Iowa can revert to its pre-2014 pattern as a legitimate swing state.