If Trump wins WI, MI and PA again, Would it be by a bigger or lesser margin?
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  If Trump wins WI, MI and PA again, Would it be by a bigger or lesser margin?		 « previous next »
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Question: If Trump wins in the Rust Belt again, Would he win in an even narrower squeaker, or would he expand his margins in those states?
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Author Topic: If Trump wins WI, MI and PA again, Would it be by a bigger or lesser margin?  (Read 1510 times)
538Electoral
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« on: July 02, 2019, 01:56:27 PM »
Let's take the narrowest state in the 2016 election, Michigan for example. Do you think if Trump wins Michigan again, It would be more likely he wins the state by 0.5% or he pulls out an even narrower victory of 0.1% or something like that?

Apply that to all three states.

Here's their 2016 margins.

Michigan - 0.23%
Pennsylvania - 0.72%
Wisconsin - 0.77%
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2019, 02:04:41 PM »
Quote from: 538Electoral on July 02, 2019, 01:56:27 PM
Let's take the narrowest state in the 2016 election, Michigan for example. Do you think if Trump wins Michigan again, It would be more likely he wins the state by 0.5% or he pulls out an even narrower victory of 0.1% or something like that?

Apply that to all three states.

Here's their 2016 margins.

Michigan - 0.23%
Pennsylvania - 0.72%
Wisconsin - 0.77%

It depends of the D nominee.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2019, 02:05:48 PM »
Probably around the same, but I doubt he's going to win any of them.
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SN2903
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2019, 05:15:37 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 02, 2019, 02:05:48 PM
Probably around the same, but I doubt he's going to win any of them.
I am guessing you doubted he would win in 2016.
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OctoCube
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2019, 05:15:50 PM »
If he won all 3 again, it would likely be by bigger margins. Hat tricks like 2016 would be hard to come by again with <1% margins.
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SN2903
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2019, 05:48:15 PM »
If he wins all 3 I think he wins them by more like 3-5 percent in 2020.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2019, 06:46:24 PM »
Around the same...which might even be worse than him winning it in a landslide.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2019, 07:22:34 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 02, 2019, 06:46:24 PM
Around the same...which might even be worse than him winning it in a landslide.

 I fear he only wins Wisconsin and the Democrats still lose 270-268 if everything else remains the same.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2019, 07:41:31 PM »
Bigger. He literally cannot lose a single vote to make a 2016-style victory happen again.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2019, 07:41:59 PM »
Quote from: GP270watch on July 02, 2019, 07:22:34 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 02, 2019, 06:46:24 PM
Around the same...which might even be worse than him winning it in a landslide.

 I fear he only wins Wisconsin and the Democrats still lose 270-268 if everything else remains the same.

God, I hope not. Please don't screw us over again, Wisconsin!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2019, 07:51:55 PM »
Trump probably 's not gonna win the rust belt, he is in trouble in IA and OH, which would give Dems 274 without NV and CO or Va
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2019, 08:17:34 PM »
I don't see how he wins any of those states by a thinner margin.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2019, 09:07:16 AM »
this might be the silliest thread idea ever. Why should it matter? I mean, if Trump wins those states, there's virtually no mathematical chance he could win them by less than he did in 2016. Plus it means America is ed so I really couldn't give a sh**t what the margin was.
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andjey
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« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2019, 04:41:19 PM »
Quote from: Anthony Davis is Awesome on July 02, 2019, 07:51:55 PM
Trump probably 's not gonna win the rust belt, he is in trouble in IA and OH, which would give Dems 274 without NV and CO or VА
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2019, 07:24:30 PM »
The same or greater.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2019, 07:52:21 PM »
If he wins all three states again?

MI - (slightly) greater
PA - the same, maybe slightly smaller
WI - greater
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: July 03, 2019, 10:51:30 PM »
Bugger, if only because the margins could never be narrower. If he can win any of those states, then he has solved many problems that have festered without solutions, and he is on the way to a majority of the popular vote. 
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redeagleofficial
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« Reply #17 on: July 04, 2019, 01:20:09 PM »
I think MI and PA around the same, WI by more
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Chips
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« Reply #18 on: April 16, 2021, 08:03:19 PM »
If Trump won MI by 0.01%, He would've flipped NV and won PA by 1.63% (0.91% R swing) and WI by 2.16% (1.39% R swing) If Trump won MI by 0.24% it's Trump 1.86% in PA (1.14% R swing and WI Trump 2.39% (1.62% R swing)
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