Texas 2022 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Dems can't pull ahead in Harris County early vote soon that should be a big warning sign for them.

Not like TX will be particularly competitive in 2022 nor does it have many competitive House districts, but if Rs can still outright win Harris County that suggests a lot of the gains they've made this past decade are not certain to hold as strongly as many here have projected.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Dems can't pull ahead in Harris County early vote soon that should be a big warning sign for them.

Not like TX will be particularly competitive in 2022 nor does it have many competitive House districts, but if Rs can still outright win Harris County that suggests a lot of the gains they've made this past decade are not certain to hold as strongly as many here have projected.

There are about 32k mail ballots outstanding that have not been returned and republicans have a lead of about 6k.

I expect chunk of the mail ballots to arrive over the next couple of days and they will skew democratic.

What I suspect is a lot of the highest propensity voters in Houston, which are extremely R, were the ones who had their ballots immediately ready to be returned. Houston's Dem coalition is a notoriously very iffy turnout group relative to Texas's other metros, which is a large part of the reason Harris County has remained so close despite Houston at face value being a huge and diverse city.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Abbott will almost certainly win but I have a feeling he won’t dramatically overperform other Rs like he did in 2018, infact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a simillar margin, just with the cities a bit bluer and RGV redder

[ProgressiveModerate]

Don't extrapolate too much from this. Abbott will not win Harris County.

Agreed, I’d expect it to be sorta like Cornyn 2020 but with better margins in south Texas and maybe a bit worse in some suburban counties like Collin.

Do you think Dems have a shot at Williamson County in 2022? It voted for Cornyn by 3, but is getting better for Dems at light speed, and Biden was narrowly able to win it.

Ft. Bend will also be interesting to watch IMO because if Rs outright win it or at least keep it close it would likely mean an R improvement amongst suburban higher income/education minorities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Those El Paso numbers (and I think other populated counties too?) are huge and show that it’s not just Zapata county it’s swaths of people

Yes, this is why the narrative that it’s just some rural/small-town border counties in the RGV/South TX that will barely make a dent in the inevitable D trend and be completely overwhelmed by massive D shifts in the metro areas is flawed. If all those 'smaller' counties and El Paso/Hidalgo trend strongly to the right and Houston remains stagnant, even Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin very likely won’t flip the state this decade.

We’ll see what happens, but right now, TX isn’t looking like "GA 2016" but more like a (more) Republican mirror image of MN. That could change, so Republicans can’t get overconfident, but I don’t think TX becoming a blue state any time soon is quite as inevitable as it’s made out to be.

in order for those shifts to matter though, the GOP has to actually be cutting into Dems net vote margins otherwise they're just stopping Dems from winning as many votes as they could have.

In 2020 for instance, Biden still net more votes than Clinton out of El Paso, even if it swung right.

However, in Hidalgo, Trump cut Biden's margin (from HRC) by ~35k votes which is pretty substantial. However, unless you believe the GOP will start outright winning the County, the 38k remaining votes in Biden's margin isn't a lot to cut into.

A reminder that in just 1 cycle, Biden was able to net about 100k more votes out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece, and still expanded on Clinton's Harris County margin by about 60k votes despite it's "stagnation". That more than cancels out Hidalgo.

If the GOP wants to hold Texas, Hidalgo doesn't do much unless it actually becomes strongly GOP leaning, but increasing raw vote margins in areas that already heavily favour them but have low turnout would probably go much further

You could use the same argument for Dems. It's probably not worth it to invest in rural Texas, but heavily minority parts of Dallas and Houston in particularly have quite poor turnout; juicing that up could really help them. Even if Houston stagnates, if turnout increases Dems can still net more raw votes out of it.

My guess is Texas is in reach for Dems going forwards but it takes a bit before it actually votes to the left of the nation.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Those El Paso numbers (and I think other populated counties too?) are huge and show that it’s not just Zapata county it’s swaths of people

Yes, this is why the narrative that it’s just some rural/small-town border counties in the RGV/South TX that will barely make a dent in the inevitable D trend and be completely overwhelmed by massive D shifts in the metro areas is flawed. If all those 'smaller' counties and El Paso/Hidalgo trend strongly to the right and Houston remains stagnant, even Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin very likely won’t flip the state this decade.

We’ll see what happens, but right now, TX isn’t looking like "GA 2016" but more like a (more) Republican mirror image of MN. That could change, so Republicans can’t get overconfident, but I don’t think TX becoming a blue state any time soon is quite as inevitable as it’s made out to be.

in order for those shifts to matter though, the GOP has to actually be cutting into Dems net vote margins otherwise they're just stopping Dems from winning as many votes as they could have.

In 2020 for instance, Biden still net more votes than Clinton out of El Paso, even if it swung right.

However, in Hidalgo, Trump cut Biden's margin (from HRC) by ~35k votes which is pretty substantial. However, unless you believe the GOP will start outright winning the County, the 38k remaining votes in Biden's margin isn't a lot to cut into.

A reminder that in just 1 cycle, Biden was able to net about 100k more votes out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece, and still expanded on Clinton's Harris County margin by about 60k votes despite it's "stagnation". That more than cancels out Hidalgo.

If the GOP wants to hold Texas, Hidalgo doesn't do much unless it actually becomes strongly GOP leaning, but increasing raw vote margins in areas that already heavily favour them but have low turnout would probably go much further

You could use the same argument for Dems. It's probably not worth it to invest in rural Texas, but heavily minority parts of Dallas and Houston in particularly have quite poor turnout; juicing that up could really help them. Even if Houston stagnates, if turnout increases Dems can still net more raw votes out of it.

My guess is Texas is in reach for Dems going forwards but it takes a bit before it actually votes to the left of the nation.

It’s true that these counties alone will not hold off a few cycles of sustained shifts in the metros. But the idea that the triangle metro counties can all keep shifting hard left forever in a neutral environment is not very realistic. Biden already handily carried the moderate and independent vote in Texas and at some point these counties max out under the current electorate (as has been stated about Miami-Dade). Maybe the electorate changes eventually with demographic change, but that takes time

Ye it's def fair because a lot of people take the metros shifting left for granted

I would say Austin is prolly close to getting as blue as it's going to get but population growth should assist Dems, they just won't gain as dramatically as they have these past few cycles. However, it's also the metro I'm most certain in as there's really no reason it'd suddenly start going hard right and it can't get much bluer.

Dallas County itself is probably getting pretty close to it's max for Dems as basically the entire County leans pretty heavily left. However, Dallas Counties turnout especially in the heavily minority areas is really bad so if they invest they still have votes to net out of it. However, the neighboring suburban Counties all seem likely to continue shifting left again from demographic change alone, but probably won't net Dems as many votes since a lot of folks moving to them vote GOP, it's just more of them vote Dem.

Harris County is a simillar situation to Dallas with the turnout but I actually think the GOP has more room to fall because several of the GOP pockets are because of things such as like the oil industry which are becoming less and less the focus of the metro's economy. Ft. Bend will almost centainly continue to get bluer. I think the County will shift left but I'd be curious to see if the GOP can expand their raw vote margins in Montgomery County.

San Antonio is a bit weird because it's inbetween an El-Paso type city and a Dallas type city, both in terms of size and culture. There seems to be less white collar development going on, so I honestly think Dems are going to be somewhat disappointed in Bexar County going forwards. Also, it's suburbs generally seem to have re-aligned slightly ahead of Dallas and Houston's.

The GOP has over 600k votes they can afford to lose which may seem like a lot but as soon as you start doing the math it's not a very secure buffer. However, I really do question if Dems will net another additional 100k votes out of Dallas and Travis in 2024 and beyond.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

I mean I was joking about him running again but I do agree with that argument. The question of course being is Beto succeeding at that?

I'm not sure. Turnout in Texas, as in the rest of the country, was up massively in 2020, compared to 2016 and all preceding elections. Yet Trump still won by over 600,000 votes, and Cornyn won by more than a million votes. Moreover, Trump got a significantly higher number of raw votes in the Rio Grande Valley, which has long been the most Democratic region of the state. Texas's urban and suburban areas certainly have shifted left and are continuing to do so, but the trends in the Valley and among Hispanics in general ought to be concerning to Democrats.

I would say yes, it's just that the GOP's efforts have also been strong. Is there more Dems could've done in 2020 to get out the vote in Texas? Definitely. But Texas was never a front-line battleground to begin with. 100k additional votes singlehandedly out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece is quite impressive.

Ultimately the RGV is not going to be a key part of Dems winning coalition in Texas even though it was the bluest area for a while. First off beyond the high Hispanic population, there's not much that makes the region so Democratic to begin with. Secondly, it's already relatively small and growing slower than the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

This is certainly true. Cornyn and Abbott won it as late as 2014, and even Ted Cruz carried it in his first race back in 2012. Biden only marginally improved there compared to Hillary Clinton, a major reason why Trump comfortably held Texas in 2020. And Hidalgo, who has never been a strong or particularly popular incumbent, was swept in by the 2018 wave.

Harris being relatively R for such a large county is largely because of turnout differentials. It's very much a case where Dems rely on low turnout minority communities whereas white R high turnout burbs cancel out a lot of it.

If 2022 comes down to poor Dem turnout, Harris County would likely be disproportionately impacted, on the flipside there's more upside for Dems with strong turnout.

It's crazy to think how a D + 10ish County basically gets 3.5 dedicated D packs on the congressional level with pretty extreme splitting on Rs part. Texas-29 for instance only cast a total of 174k ballots when most CDs nationally are well over 300k or 400k votes. Nearby TX-38 which is def the favored side of Houston cast 358k votes in 2020 and cast over 25k more votes for Biden despite voting 50+ points to the right. Now just imagine if TX-29 had the same turnout as TX-38

This is how Biden was still able to gain out of Harris County despite the swing map looking brutal for him within the County; turnout in these counties during the 2016 Pres race was even worse.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One very interesting thing (I pointed something simillar out in the GA thread) is that Dems will likely pretty much hold their ground in state House. Because of a combination of growth, the weird county redistricting rules, and general political shifts throughout the decade, Rs ceded a lot of safe seats to Dems that should hold them above 60 seats even in the worst of nights.

This isn't necessarily a good thing for Dems though. It doesn't matter if the GOP has a supermajority anyways and that was probably never in the books. The GOP's strategy in redistricting was basically to try and make Dems path to a majority as difficult as possible even if it means giving them a few extra seats in the short term. Ironically, the tipping point seat for state House is still pretty much in line with the state despite all their efforts. The State Senate seems a bit more secure longer term.

The GOP's main hope for State House would be RGV and South Texas where there are quite a few Biden + 10ish heavily Hispanic seats that have potential to go hard right if we see 2020 repeat itself. In that case, winning those few extra seats would require Dems to break into the R gerry a bit further in the suburbs. However, given the sheer number of Trump + 7ish suburban seats, when the gerrymander falls it'll really fall so that may not be enough at the end of the day.

I feel like this also shows how the GOP in Texas seems to think they are losing ground compared to say FL where the GOP's legislative gerrymanders were far more tame and seemed to rely heavily on the idea they'd continue to win a lot of the Clinton - Trump Cuban districts and such.

Again, even if suburbs themselves swing back R, a lot of these competitive seats are in the favored quarters of the cities which are growing and diversifying in a way that is not good for the GOP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Morning Consult has Abbott at +12 approval

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

Their polls generally seem to have a pro-incumbent bias when it comes to approval as I have a hard time believing everyone but Evers is above water.

Either way that doesn't seem particularly great for Abbott though certainly not bad either. This is just one poll though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Beto isn't winning Texas in 2022 barring a miracle, but I'd argue fixing godawful turnout in downtown Dallas and Houston would ultimately go a lot further. Ironically, Austin is really the only majour Texas city with good turnout in hyper D areas (prolly because white liberals).

Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

I think this is sorta a simillar thing to Georgia where Dems technically had the votes to win statewide for a while, it's just turnout in Atlanta was dreadful relative to the rest of the state. Yes the strong swings in GA-06 and GA-07 helped but the number of votes Biden net over Obama in the 3 core Atlanta districts (4, 5, and 13) is insane in comparison.

Also worth noting Davis did end outperforming Obama in Austin and Dallas suburbs (in terms of % margin) but pretty much underperformed everywhere else lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it just me or does the GOP have a lot of revruitement failures when it comes to the statehouse?

A few notable districts:

HD-36:

Heavily Hispanic seat located along the South Texas border and was Biden + 18. The GOP likely would still lose here in 2022 but it'd be worth it to at least run a canidate incase R RGV is real, especially since this is prolly one of the better parts of Hidalgo County for them when it comes to improvement.

HD-113

Another Biden + 20 seat but very different from HD-36. It's located in the Northeast Dallas suburbs and is incredibly diverse. Shifts in this district have generally been poor for the GOP but given the nature of 2022 and also the fact these seats seem to be a bit more R friendly down ballot it seems like it's at least worth running a canidate.

HD-144:

A suburban Houston metro seat that is heavily Hispanic and working class based around Pasadena. It was only Biden + 11 in 2020 and has had some decent shifts for the GOP as it was Clinton + 20.

HD-80:

A Clinton + 16 - Trump + 4 rural Hispanic seat in RGV. This is just really embarrassing given it's a Trump seat with very favorable shifts and it's a seat they'll want to win to try and hold the Dems in the minority.

Ultimately this isn't really that consequential as the GOP should pretty easily retain control but still just seems unhelpful in trying to get a bigger coalition. Dems had some mis-steps too with recruitment but didn't coutright throw away winnable races.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gotta say both sides have really bad optics for this race. Obv Beto prolly ain’t winning but I think people forget in theory Dems can win Texas on urban voters alone, simillar to how GA Dems didn’t really have to moderate to win

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyways though, I think it's time we discuss last night's election results since we didn't get to do that last night on this thread.

First off, Ken Paxton absolutely trounced George P. Bush by 36%, 68-32, signaling the end of the Bush dynasty in Texas. Bush only carried 5 counties, of which all but 4 were rural counties (and the last being Travis, home of Austin).

For the Democratic runoff for AG, Rochelle Garza beat former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski 62.7-37.3. The only metro area Jaworski did well in was unsurprisingly Houston, as Galveston is part of the Houston metro. Unfortunately aside from Houston and many rural counties, Jaworski didn't do so hot.

For lieutenant governor, Mike Collier ran away with the nomination in a slightly more competitive race, only winning by 9%. Beckley's strength seemed to be in south Texas, including the San Antonio, El Paso, Laredo, and RGV metro areas, along with many deep red rural counties.

In the railroad commissioner runoff, incumbent Wayne Christian demolished Sarah Stogner by exactly 30%, carrying all but a few counties. Funny enough, Stogner's biggest prize seemed to be the Dallas exurban county of Navarro (home to Corsicana), where Stogner won despite it nearly being an exact tie.

Trump-endorsed candidate Dawn Buckingham trounced Tim Westley for the land commissioner runoff. Slightly disappointing since I voted for Westley (Buckingham barely even had an issues page), but Buckingham's victory is not surprising in the slightest.

What was surprising to me however was the TX HD-63 race, where Ben Bumgarner absolutely trounced Jeff Younger, the father of James Younger, the child whose mother fought for custody to transition him into a transgender girl named Luna.

Lastly, in a victory for me as a Harris County resident, Alexandra del Moral Mealer trounced Vidal Martinez and clinched the nomination for Harris County Judge. Considering the rapid rise in crime in Houston and Harris County, and Lina Hidalgo having scandals of her own, this could potentially be a GOP flip in a county that's surprisingly not as dem-leaning for its size.

Let me know your thoughts on these races!

I'd argue Harris County is abnormally R for a County of it's size also because Houston proper and heavily minotiy communities just have really poor turnout. Rmbr Rs had to cede 4 vote sinks in Harris County to Dems in their pretty maximal gerrymander, just all those sinks have low turnout relative to the more swingy and R suburbs around them. IIRC Biden actually got like 30k more votes in TX-38 than TX-29 despite it being 50 points redder.

I still think Abbott loses Harris but it could be the GOP's last grasp at it, and in a poor turnout election i wouldn't be completely shocked if he does better in Harris than Fort Bend. Love to hear your thoughts on this.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

O'Rouke was attacking the Governor for his handling of the power outage and utilities, and called his policies "socialism". I'd like to see more of that. Abbott has real weak spots, but O'Rouke needs a really disciplined campaign. I don't know that he's able to run such a campaign.

Ye I agree, that was an issue that had more universal impacts throughout Texas, D or R it was something that people saw firsthand. The main issue I see with Beto is he isn't able to define himself, especially after the Dem 2020 Pres primary. He keeps going back from doing hyper porgressive political stunts and then trying to moderate and it just comes off badly.

I am glad to see the past few cycles generally, there has been more serious turnout and engagement efforts by Texas Dems, and O Rourke Counties to be a big part of that. This isn't a winning campaign but a larger part of a foundation for TX Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

With all the people in that room, yes I'm sure you somehow knew exactly who was booing him and who wasn't. Just stop.

Also tbf Uvalde is still an R County that will prolly vote for Cornyn

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like Beto is doubling down on "hell yes"

Is he trying to lose Harris County at this rate?
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1531721138790875146?s=20&t=acdvyPrmru4WgN...

Speaking of Harris County, why in your view is Lina Hidalgo seen disfavorably. I’m obviously not in the Texas media market but a brief Google search yields press that converse that overall is decent if not favorable. Given the nature of the year and downballot lag she def seems vulnerable either way, but why is she particularly disliked?

Also in your view will Rs match (or exceed) Trumps performance in minority communities in Houston in 2022? % margin wise, it was stronger than even 2014 Gov or Sen in many areas, though some attribute the rightwards shift to more people showing up overall. Would be so cursed if Aboott wins Harris and Beto wins Fort Bend which actually seems possible

[ProgressiveModerate]

Speaking of Harris County, why in your view is Lina Hidalgo seen disfavorably. I’m obviously not in the Texas media market but a brief Google search yields press that converse that overall is decent if not favorable. Given the nature of the year and downballot lag she def seems vulnerable either way, but why is she particularly disliked?

Also in your view will Rs match (or exceed) Trumps performance in minority communities in Houston in 2022? % margin wise, it was stronger than even 2014 Gov or Sen in many areas, though some attribute the rightwards shift to more people showing up overall. Would be so cursed if Aboott wins Harris and Beto wins Fort Bend which actually seems possible

This may be a decent article on her controversy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/09/lina-hidalgo-texas-democrats-future-midterms-00031055

Ngl these seem like relatively small controversies considering that most don’t care about. Is it different on the ground?

[ProgressiveModerate]

FWIW I put safe R but my expectation is that Abbott wins by 8-10, which is actually a shift away from his +13 last time in 2018 and in the context of a national shift towards the Rs any result worse than matching 2018 is a pretty negative trend for him.

It'll be very interesting to see if he does better or worse than 2018, and how he does comparatively by region. In 2018, he was a less controversial and well known figure running against a nobody but this time he has become much more polarizing and is running against O Rourke.

In 2018, his biggest overperformance of Cruz was in the wealthy affluent white suburbs such as University Park in Dallas and Hunts Creek Village in Houston. How he performs in these communities in 2022 will tell a lot about how stable Dem gains are in these communities.

When compared with 2020 Pres, He obviosuly underperformed Trump big time in RGV but also significant chunks of Houston. Still had very dramatic overperformances in basically every suburb though (up to 40 points in some cases!)

[ProgressiveModerate]

For comparison sake, CBS/YouGOv's last poll of TX in 2020 was in September and had Trump +2 (48-46), so not extremely helpful since it was still a month and a half before the election. They nailed Bidens % though.

I'm very inclined to think the same thing is happening here. The 39-44% range we see for Beto in these polls is probably exactly where he will land come election day. Abbott's #s are way too low.

I can't see Beto falling below 40% at this point, even in an R wave. Dems floor in TX is too high, though 42% or so is def realistic. P0art of it will depend upon how many 3rd party votes there are.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will Abbott win by more than 2018?

That’s what I’m watching for. He’s def not replicating some of his margins in many TX suburbs and he’s likely to outperform himself in at least many parts of the RGV. How it all adds up is harder to say though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Adding on to what everyone has said, I’ll be very curious to see how Ugalde votes and swings relative to neighboring counties. Furthermore, does it see any sort of boost in turnout by being forced into the spotlight on a political issue? The impact statewide will be virtually nothing given how small the counties population is, but it could tell both sides about their messaging.

Also, yeah much of Abbotts god tier performances in Texas suburbs in 2018 is going to fade, to what degree is yet to be seen, though probably not enough to knock him out. You also have some where growth from 2018 alone may be enough to cause hmm to lose such as Fort Bend (which I think could actually vote to the left of Harris County)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Adding on to what everyone has said, I’ll be very curious to see how Ugalde votes and swings relative to neighboring counties. Furthermore, does it see any sort of boost in turnout by being forced into the spotlight on a political issue? The impact statewide will be virtually nothing given how small the counties population is, but it could tell both sides about their messaging.

Also, yeah much of Abbotts god tier performances in Texas suburbs in 2018 is going to fade, to what degree is yet to be seen, though probably not enough to knock him out. You also have some where growth from 2018 alone may be enough to cause hmm to lose such as Fort Bend (which I think could actually vote to the left of Harris County)

It would be a freakin’ surprise if Fort Bend votes more left than Harris County.

It's not that implausible; Fort Bend is getting a lot of Houston spillover, but unlike Harris County doesn't have the relatively dense heavily R outer suburbs and exurbs. If Abbott shines with this group in particular, it'd have disproportionate affect in Harris County than Fort Bend.