NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[minionofmidas]

Using NYT as my source, they are

NY-25 (Republican, Ann Marie Buerkle, ahead)
IL-8 (Republican, Joe Walsh, ahead)
VA-11 (Democrat, Gerald Connolly, ahead)
KY-6 (Democrat, Ben Chandler, ahead)
TX-27 (Republican, Blake Farenthold, ahead)
AZ-8 (Democrat, Gabrielle Giffords, ahead)
WA-2 (Democrat, Rick Larsen, ahead)
CA-11 (Democrat, Jerry McNerney, ahead)
CA-20 (Republican, Andy Vidak, ahead)

Margins vary - CA-20 looks eminently callable. But yeah, I suggest we have a single thread to cover the counting aftermath.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, which is where this is going.   

I meant "only the aftermath". (Nah, seriously. He expect me to even read an 80 page thread that I haven't read yet? The only reason I came here was my thread was missing and this one was my best bet as to where it might have gone.)

[minionofmidas]

I mean, obviously the discussion I was missing and looking for was in this thread, and my post belongs with it. I was merely explaining myself in starting it.

[minionofmidas]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Not definite, but he's in a better place than Bishop is as of now

He's going to expand the Jewish-Republican caucus in all of Congress to a grand total of two then, right?  I'm pretty sure that's unimpressive considering their large Congressional gains and their gains into other minority groups.

I still think Chuck Fleischmann in TN-03 is a closet Jew. He doesn't mention religion at all on his website, and, come on, his last name is Fleischmann.

Which is more German than Jewish.

[minionofmidas]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

Well, tell us what's your idea of who won in CA-08. Was it John Dennis?  

     Clearly a recount would overturn Pelosi's 65% lead.

I meant CA-20.

In other news, RCP declares TX-27 for Farenthold:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2010/house_final_results.html

This guy seems super vulnerable in 2012.

...unless they draw him a safe(ish) district that stretches north and west from Corpus.
Although that comes down to abandoning the southern half to a safer Hispanic district than ever.

[minionofmidas]

What else is still open - NY1, NY25, IL8, CA20 and officially KY6 because they take their time for a routine recanvass - is that correct?

[minionofmidas]

In CA-11, Harmer had a very rough day yesterday, as votes came in from Alameda, replicating its earlier swing to McNerney plus a bit. Harmer will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in San Joaquin, the one place where he won, by having the late absentees and provisionals swing to him by perhaps 6%, plus have a turnout that matches the balance of the district with its late reporting, to get back to even.. That is highly unlikely. Harmer is really on the ropes now.

   Alameda               11/9/2010   
57.32%   15688   16086   398   59.49%   21024   4938   59.96%
42.68%   11679   11950   271   40.51%   15247   3297   40.04%
14.65%  27367  28036   669   18.98%   36271   8235   19.93%   5.28%   Dem Gain

So after three consecutive wave elections, only one of California's seats changed hands when McNerney defeated Pombo in 2006.
Whoever gerrymandered the state did a spectacular job.

Compare the 90s:

1992 30 D, 22 R
1994 27 D, 25 R
1995 26 D, 26 R (by-election)
1996 29 D, 23 R
1998 28 D, 24 R (three seats changed hands, two gains one way, one the other)
2000 32 D, 20 R, which (plus a new, democratic seat) is the distribution set into stone by the redistricting.
Although, compared to the size of the 94 wave and the size of the state, that's less-than-impressive movement. A lot of the state simply is safe for one party or the other.

Also, have a look at Washington, with its nonpartisan redistricting:
1992 8 D, 1 R
1994 7 R, 2 D
1996 6 R, 3 D
1998 5 D, 4 R
2000 6 D, 3 R
and no change since. The 2000's waves just weren't that big on the west coast.

[minionofmidas]

Well boys and girls (I forgot we seem to be a female free zone), CA-11 will stay in Dem hands. This one is over.

San Joaquin                        
Harmer   52.48%    45,958   58652   12,694   51.65%         
McNerney47.52%   41,612   53493   11,881   48.35%   0.83%   Dem Improvement   
                               87,570                24,575   

In sum, the GOP bombed out in CA. They took nothing from the Dems, nothing, except perhaps picking up the AG slot (Cooley, but I have not been tracking that one closely), while losing one assembly seat.    Sure, some of the Dem margins eroded, some substantially, but the color is still all blue, or red, or whatever color is the Dem color.

Yellow.

[minionofmidas]

So there is absolutely no chance of me ever ever winning NY-13, correct?

No. You'll convert three days after your first romantic date with KP, and be elected Representative for NY-13 in 14 years.

[minionofmidas]

Harry Reid ended up winning Searchlight by just 3 votes.  

Only 3 votes ? That's certainly one of the poorest "home turf effects" ever.

Searchlight is pretty darn Republican.  I don't think Obama won it

McCain by ten.

[minionofmidas]

There goes my hope for  Bishop win in the single digits.

Oh, and Torie: Blind chick. Grain.

[minionofmidas]

Delaware went Democratic in 2010. I think that's the error in question.

Also, in Alabama and Hawaii you're not listing 2008 but rather the immediate pre-election. But I suppose that's not so much an error as simply a misleading column title. That would also arguably explain your Indiana "error" as IN-3 was vacant immediately before the election. (I could scroll down to New York to verify my assumptions, I suppose, but I'll stop here. It's probably Delaware that threw you off.)

[minionofmidas]

So, has Altschuler conceded?