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I don't understand why it's even controversial to say that Trump will underperform these polls. The polls are saying that he is ahead by about 10 points in many of the swing states. If you think Trump will do that well then you don't understand the American electorate. That's clearly Nate Aluminum's situation.

Pollster Sir Muhammad is right it's a 74/70 M Eday all of Hillary leads outside of the Rust belt were 50/46 it's in You tube and Brown and Tester won 50/46 or 50/44 in 2012 and Trump is gonna win TX 50/46

That's why Trump is never goñna win NV by 12 or AZ by 7 Vegas suburbs and Tucson AZ are too D Lean the polls are lies

Doubtful. If they couldn't win them in 2022, I doubt it this year.

But the national environment has greatly worsened for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

he blew the 2020 election

What did he predict?

That Biden had a 80-90% chance of winning, which did actually happen? The only notable error I remember from the "EC snake" was GA being more R than NC. GA flipping before NC makes sense in hindsight but wasn't obvious outside the region at the time.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056

This isn't a clear indicator that 2024-PRES polls will underestimate Trump given how "Trump overperforms teh pollz" has sort of become conventional wisdom.

Yikes!

How competitive could the 6th district be if McCormick was really dragged down by a scandal?

Don't forget Georgia redistricted this year.  He'll be running (and I guess is technically the incumbent) in the new 7th, which is much more Republican than the previous 6th.  I can't see it becoming competitive unless the scandal gets much much worse than it appears now.

[Indian: California 07 19.7%]

From the 2022 ACS:

Czech: Nebraska 01 4.3%
Dutch: Michigan 04.  13.7%
English: Utah 03.    29.9%
German: Wisconsin 05 44.7%
Irish: Massachusetts 08 24.7%
Italian: New York 01 21.9%
Norwegian: North Dakota AL 20.5%
Polish: Illinois 06 13.8%
Portuguese: Massachusetts 04 11.3%
Swedish: Minnesota 08 9.5%
Indian: California 07 19.7%
Chinese: New York 06 23.3%
Korean: California 34 7%
Vietnamese: California 45 17.1%

Agree with CentristRepublican. I can kind of see the 2010s version of CA-7 given that it contained Folsom, although even that really seems like a stretch. The 2020s version containing downscale Sacramento suburbs and boondocks farmland is a different story.

[North Carolina Lieutenant Governor:]

On Tuesday, North Carolina held runoffs for the two Republican council of state races that were not resolved during the March 5th regular primary due to the leading candidate receiving less than 30% of the vote. The final two nominees are Hal Weatherman for Lieutenant Governor and Dave Boliek for State Auditor.

North Carolina Lieutenant Governor:
Hal Weatherman — 74% (+55%); 96,461 (-85,357)
Jim O'Neill — 26% (+10%); 33,111 (-113,931)

North Carolina State Auditor:
Dave Boliek — 53% (+31%); 66,895 (-122,176)
Jack Clark — 47% (+24%); 58,974 (-139,819)

Interesting to note: Boliek was able reverse a narrow second-place finish from the regular primary, where he finished with 22% to Clark's 23%. Given North Carolina's runoff threshold being set so low, the runoff garnering such low turnout, and the narrow-ness of the initial primary results, this isn't an entirely unexpected outcome to have occurred, but it's worth noting. The last time a North Carolina statewide primary runoff reversed the first- and second-place finishers was in 2012 (when the runoff threshold was set at 40%), when Mike Causey beat Richard Morgan for Republican nominee for North Carolina Commissioner of Insurance in the July runoff. Causey finished 2% behind Morgan in the initial primary and was able to turn that into a 15 point victory two months later.

The only direct evidence that Trump knew about the scheme to falsify the business records is Cohen's testimony. So if they can convince jurors that his testimony can't be trusted that might given them reasonable doubt as to Trump's knowledge of the scheme. And they definitely showed that he has lied about a lot of things in the past. Not saying it's enough to doubt his testimony (not like we weren't expecting it), or to conclude there isn't enough other circumstantial evidence that Trump knew they were falsified, but it's the biggest glove they've laid on the prosecution's case so far.

The thing is, even if Cohen is slimey and has lied about some things, the point at the end of the day is - you don't need to believe Cohen 100% in everything he says, you just have to believe Cohen when he talks about the Trump records part of it. And given the other circumstantial evidence that supports Cohens claims, that at least backs up Cohens claims about that situation, outside of whether Cohen is telling the truth about other things.

Anything to take the attention off the corrupt man they worship as he undergoes a trial.

.

That's why Trump is gonna lose they worship this man and he isn't giving up a dime of his money. Woodbury said that Trump is a fine fellow in the 1st debate he got COVID and lied at first he didn't have it and then he refused to tell Proud boys to stand down

Louisiana, soOption 2