Election Analysis of Dean v Bush

[sgpine]

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

[sgpine]

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

I hope you're prepared to eat crow on Nov. 2, sgpine.  Dean is the biggest loser the dems have managed to produce since Mondale.

I'd just like to point out http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm
for all those determined this will be a blowout.

It is too early to tell much. Obviously I made that data up before the polls in New Hampshire, given that New Hampshire was so close in 00, Nadar was certainly going to lose votes in 04, and the proximity of New Hampshire to Vermont. I still don't put much faith in the spead of the poll, given that most people know very little about Dean at this point. Certainly though, an updated analysis would have to edge to state closer to Bush.

Let's not forget that Nadar has decided not to run, however, which could be a nice boon for whichever Democrat runs.

[sgpine]

NH should be int eh bush column for some of the reasons I said, not just be closer to him.  But yes thanks for clarifying it needed updated.

Nader has said he will not run as a Green, but may run as an Independant-- I am betting he is waiting for IA and NH to see how things shake out.

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

I hope you're prepared to eat crow on Nov. 2, sgpine.  Dean is the biggest loser the dems have managed to produce since Mondale.

I'd just like to point out http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm
for all those determined this will be a blowout.

It is too early to tell much. Obviously I made that data up before the polls in New Hampshire, given that New Hampshire was so close in 00, Nadar was certainly going to lose votes in 04, and the proximity of New Hampshire to Vermont. I still don't put much faith in the spead of the poll, given that most people know very little about Dean at this point. Certainly though, an updated analysis would have to edge to state closer to Bush.

Let's not forget that Nadar has decided not to run, however, which could be a nice boon for whichever Democrat runs.

Clarification: When I say "edge the state closer to Bush", I mean to say "give more votes to Bush". Until I do thorough analysis I can't really say where it would turn out, certainly it would likely lean Bush rather than lean Dean.