Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

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I think exit polls are pretty much in line what expectations were.

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First results aren't that good, but just stay calm... . I had expected that Indiana would be closer than what people did expect. It's early, and we haven't got numbers in from suburban and urban cities in. That rural voters would turn out in massive numbers and increase was a trend that we have already seen and nothing new.

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Switzerland county (10/12 precincts reporting)

2012
Mourdock 48%
Donnely 46,6%

2016 presidential
Trump 69,15%
Clinton 25,14%

2016 senate
Young 62,1%
Bayh 34,1%

2018
Braun 64,1%
Donnely 32%

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538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.

Where did you find that,


I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

to the right

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Florida looks good.

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Republicans now 32,4% of holding on in the House.

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I don't get the freakout about the House. All the seats where the most gains are expected aren't in-- NJ, PA, NY, MI, MN, CA etc.

There hasn't been any shocks about the House at this point

Let's wait. It's absolutely not a blue wave or blue wipe-out, but it's still a very close / tight election and i think it's going to be very close. Senate is not looking good though.

EDIT: Some had expected way too much about tonight. That's what's happening.

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538 has Indiana senate race now 39% for Donnelly. Why has this changed so abruptly?

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If margins stay the same 65.000 votes yet for Nelson (margins already calculated, so i have calculated the votes from these counties for Scott too). He's behind by 55.000 votes, but there are probably rural counties not fully yet.

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Gillum seems done. Scott vs Nelson might be really close (the other Dem counties have a bit of % of votes left too). Some rural counties too, and i think it might end up with a margin of 20.000 votes.

NJ has been called already for Menendez.

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Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future.

Yes, if you see what Beto is doing, than you would know it would be a huge mistake to choose for moderates, especially since "moderates" aren't having a good night too.

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Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future.

Lol compare and contrast Bredesen and Beto.

yes populism, partisan politics and ideology > above anything (even what some of you might call: common sense).

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James ahead in Michigan, but Michigan will probably vote to legalize marijuana.

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Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.

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It seems like this was a realignment midterm.

2010 might be more of a realignment midterm. And 2016 is the real realignment election.

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Is Scott still favoured to win?

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Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.