English local elections 2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, I'd forgotten that, but it was against Labour in 1983, and they still couldn't win.

And against a Labour candidate as generically 'unelectable' as Flannery as well.

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That came as a mild surprise to me at the time.

Anyway, places like that may be interesting over the next few years.

[YL]

I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like...

Here are their results since 2006, main four parties only, rounded to the nearest percentage point, via Jonathan Harston's website http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/

Crookes:
2010 LD 52%, Lab 20%, Con 17%, Green 10%
2008 LD 53%, Con 21%, Green 14%, Lab 13%
2007 LD 54%, Con 17%, Lab 17%, Green 12%
2006 LD 49%, Con 19%, Lab 16%, Green 14%

Dore & Totley:
2010 LD 50%, Con 34%, Lab 9%, Green 3%
2008 LD 49%, Con 44%, Lab 4%, Green 3%
2007 LD 52%, Con 36%, Lab 6%, Green 4%
2006 LD 53%, Con 37%, Lab 4%, Green 4%

Ecclesall:
2010 LD 58%, Con 19%, Lab 13%, Green 8%
2008 LD 58%, Con 24%, Green 9%, Lab 8%
2007 LD 54%, Con 26%, Green 11%, Lab 10%
2006 LD 53%, Con 25%, Green 11%, Lab 8%

Fulwood:
2010 LD 55%, Con 24%, Lab 13%, Green 7%
2008 LD 55%, Con 27%, Lab 8%, Green 7%
2007 LD 56%, Con 28%, Lab 7%, Green 7%
2006 LD 47%, Con 34%, Green 8%, Lab 8%

Stannington:
2010 LD 47%, Lab 23%, Con 18%, Green 6%
2008 LD 47%, Lab 23%, Con 16%, Green 6%
2007 LD 49%, Lab 26%, Con 16%, Green 9%
2007 LD 47%, Lab 27%, Con 16%, Green 10%

So: Dore & Totley is the most marginal, but that's because it's the most Tory, Stannington is on paper the most vulnerable to Labour but I'd expect a smaller swing there (less of a university and NHS vote).  I can't rule out the Lib Dems losing something in Hallam - a lot of people have gone off Clegg since last May - but like I said the swings needed are huge; also the LD defectors really need to get behind one opponent rather than splitting between Labour and the Greens, and I doubt that'll happen.

[YL]

OK, let's have a look at some other councils.

Rotherham: Andrew Teale's 2007 map.  In 2010 Labour won both Wales and Maltby which they'd lost in 2007.

This is not the most exciting council: the current composition is Lab 50 Con 10 BNP 1 Ind 2 (one elected as BNP).  The only wards which don't have three Labour councillors are:

Two wards with three Tories: Sitwell (the southern parts of Rotherham proper around Moorgate, and a neighbouring rural area around Upper Whiston) and Hellaby (a strange ward which contains bits of Wickersley, Bramley and Maltby and some areas in between them).

Wales (sic) (the southernmost part of the borough, including the villages of Wales, Kiveton Park and Harthill - like much of the south of the borough it's a mix of mining and commuter villages), which voted Tory in 2007 and 2008 (leading to "Tories win Wales" headline potential) but Labour in 2010.

Anston & Woodsetts (next to Wales and not dissimilar), which voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but Tory in 2008.

Wickersley (which actually covers only the northern parts of both Wickersley and neighbouring Bramley), which also voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but Tory in 2008.

Maltby (which covers the eastern and central parts of Maltby town plus a rural area to the south), which voted for an independent in 2007, BNP in 2008 (in a ridiculous election result where there were lots of competitive independents and the BNP winner got only 23%; amusingly the UKIP candidate was called Gordon Brown and came last) and Labour 2010.

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (fairly self-explanatory, unlike most Rotherham ward names) which voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but BNP in 2008.  The BNP councillor has since had an "interesting" career: he defected from the BNP to something called the England First Party and from them to the National Front.  He then tried to defect back to England First, allegedly because he hadn't realised the NF were racists (!), but England First wouldn't have him back, and he now sits as an independent.

Anyway, I'd expect a repeat of the 2010 result: Labour win everywhere except Sitwell and Hellaby.  The "John Lilburne Democratic Party" is standing in Rotherham East ward; Google suggests they have an "interesting" history too.  The Lib Dems only have four candidates, significantly outnumbered by UKIP.

[YL]

Doncaster: Andrew Teale's 2007 map.  In 2010 Labour did very well, winning everywhere but the Tory strongholds of Sprotborough, Torne Valley and Finningley and the Lib Dem stronghold of Bessacarr & Cantley. 

The council is Lab 34, LD 10, Con 9, Community Group 3, Ind 7.  This might suggest that Labour has control, but unfortunately the Council has an elected mayor, who is an English Democrat.  Doncaster borough has something of a history in recent years of corruption ("Donnygate") and incompetence, which is presumably why they went down the elected mayor road, not that it seems to have done any good.  (See also Stoke.)

The Tories' have all three councillors in the three strongholds mentioned above.  The Lib Dems only won one ward last year but have councillors from 2007 and 2008 in several others; they're defending Mexborough, Town Moor, Wheatley and the mouthful that is "Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun" this year.  I'd guess that they'll find these defences difficult; e.g. Mexborough is not the sort of place that's going to appreciate the current Government.

The Community Group's stronghold is Thorne in the east of the borough; they also have one councillor in Central via a defection from Labour (the defector is defending his seat this year).  They did badly everywhere they stood last year, losing one of their Thorne seats to Labour and coming fifth in the process.

The English Democrats have no councillors.  (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.)  They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere.

Tentative prediction: Lab 15, Con 3, LD 2, Ind 1.

[minionofmidas]

Catcliffe (fairly self-explanatory)

Why? Do people throw them off it?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The English Democrats have no councillors.  (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.)  They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere.

The only ward where the English Democrats had any kind of track record before Davies was elected mayor was the Tory stronghold of Finningley, where Davies was the candidate.  Between 2006 and 2008 he consistently finished second in that ward with just over 20%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what?

[Leftbehind]

Good riddance from what I've heard of the Liverpool Lib Dems.

[You kip if you want to...]

Good riddance from what I've heard of the Liverpool Lib Dems.

Bradley has done better for the people of Liverpool in opposition, with his opposition to the Coalition, than he ever did as council leader.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour's second broadcast
http://vimeo.com/22552966

Your voice in tough times (Part 2)

[YL]

The English Democrats have no councillors.  (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.)  They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere.

The only ward where the English Democrats had any kind of track record before Davies was elected mayor was the Tory stronghold of Finningley, where Davies was the candidate.  Between 2006 and 2008 he consistently finished second in that ward with just over 20%.

Yep, and last year they didn't really come close to winning anywhere, though they had lots of 20%ish results.  The closest was Wheatley, where there was no Tory candidate; I'd guess Bentley might be their best result this year, for the same reason.

For those who aren't familiar with Davies, here's my favourite quote (taken slightly out of context):

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and when you're in a hole, stop digging:

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Davies_%28politician%29

[YL]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what?

Is wipe-out (in the sense of not winning any of the seats up this year) actually likely?  I see their votes in some of their best wards fell dramatically last year and they don't seem so safe now, but what about Woolton?

If Bradley actually did what he's been accused of doing it seems remarkably stupid.  His statement is on the Liverpool Echo site.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what?

Is wipe-out (in the sense of not winning any of the seats up this year) actually likely?  I see their votes in some of their best wards fell dramatically last year and they don't seem so safe now, but what about Woolton?

If Bradley actually did what he's been accused of doing it seems remarkably stupid.  His statement is on the Liverpool Echo site.

Is it coincidence that Clegg condemned his email a few days ago?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've decided to do this region by region and so on. There might be some minor errors in terms of seats up for various reasons; corrections welcome. First, as usual, comes the North East...

===

Metropolitan Boroughs

Newcastle upon Tyne

Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2
Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election.

North Tyneside

Current composition: Labour 29, Con 24, LDem 7
Seats up: Con 10, Labour 8, LDem 2
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need two seats in order to win a majority here, which shouldn't be difficult. A majority on the council won't be the same thing as control though; North Tyneside has an elected Mayor and Labour will have to wait until 2013 to pick that up.

South Tyneside

Current composition: Labour 36, Ind/Oth. 14, Con 2, LDem 2
Seats up: Labour 12, Ind 3, Oth. 1, Con 1, LDem 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Might be interesting to see how well the Indies hold up in 'normal' low turnout circumstances, but that's about it.

Gateshead

Current composition: Labour 45, LDem 20, Lib 1
Seats up: Labour 14, LDem 8
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Always Labour since reorganisation (and parts have been run by Labour without a break since the 1920s), the presence of Whickham has given a core around which a respectable opposition group can be (and has) built. Will that hold up with things as they are?

Sunderland

Current composition: Labour 52, Con 18, Ind 4, LDem 1
Seats up: Labour 17, Con 7, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: the only question is whether Labour can pull off a sweep; just about possible, but unlikely given the existence of Fulwell. Tories have a chance of saving some of their other seats provided they've learned the lessons of their overstretch-related humiliation in 2010.

Unitary Authorities

Darlington

Current composition: Labour 29, Con 18, LDem 6
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Darlo has never been as solidly Labour as the rest of County Durham, but social polarisation and solid organisation meant that the Party held on here in 2007 despite coming 10pts behind the Tories across the borough. They'll win again this year and will make gains as well.

Stockton on Tees

Current composition: Labour 22, Ind 16, Con 13, LDem 5
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Uncertain
Comments: Labour need to make seven gains to take control. Running through the figures from last time there are about five possibilities that look to be relatively straightforward, after which things get complicated. The mass of suburbs on the Yorkshire side of the Tees are dominated by two separate groups of 'Independents'; unless swings elsewhere are massive they need to make gains there. Predicting how well organised 'independents' will do without local knowledge is tricky, so I'll pass. Anyway, the council currently has an unusual leadership arrangement; a Labour/Tory coalition with a Tory as council leader (despite having less seats).

Hartlepool

Current composition: Labour 24, Ind 14, LDem 5, Con 4
Seats up: Labour 6, Ind 6, LDem 2, Con 1, Vacant 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comments: Monkeytown has an Independent Mayor of course; Stuart Drummond (née H'Angus The Monkey). Labour took back a majority on the council chamber in 2010 and will make further gains this year.

Redcar & Cleveland

Current composition: Labour 25, LDem 16, Con 11, Ind 7
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comments: This should be fairly straightforward; Labour need to gain five seats to gain a majority, and ought to make it easily enough with things as they are. The problem is that things have changed a great deal since 2007; the LibDems suddenly started doing very well in local by-elections, the Corus works was mothballed and one of the stranger Labour losses of the last General Election happened. I tend to think that most of the factors that made that possible no longer apply (especially given that the LibDems are clearly no longer the inoffensive party of broadly centrist populist protest that many here will have assumed just a year ago) and so we'll see the sort of result we would have anyway (more or less). I may well be wrong and am happy to acknowledge as much.

Middlesbrough

Current composition: Labour 27, Ind 13, Con 6, Green 1, LDem 1
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: It's hard to imagine that Labour majority not growing, though by how much I've no idea given the existence of seemingly entrenched Independents. Robocop is also up for re-election; he waltzed to re-election in 2007 and presumably will do again, unless his popularity has taken a knock and there's a serious campaign being run against him. The LibDems won five seats in 2007; they seem to have scattered to the winds.

Districts

There are no Districts in the North East.

[Leftbehind]

Be good if it's a clean sweep for Labour here; I'll be doing my bit to swing Redcar & Cleveland.

[joevsimp]

Middlesbrough

Current composition: Labour 27, Ind 13, Con 6, Green 1, LDem 1
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: It's hard to imagine that Labour majority not growing, though by how much I've no idea given the existence of seemingly entrenched Independents. Robocop is also up for re-election; he waltzed to re-election in 2007 and presumably will do again, unless his popularity has taken a knock and there's a serious campaign being run against him. The LibDems won five seats in 2007; they seem to have scattered to the winds.

Districts

There are no Districts in the North East.

Didn't know Middlesborough had a Green cllr, was that a by election or a defection cos I'm sure I'd remember something like that happening

[Leftbehind]

Defection from the Lib Dems.

[joevsimp]

Defection from the Lib Dems.

fair enough, any chance of holding the seat, or will Labour gain it?

there aren't actually too many of them about are there? a couple in Aberdeenshire and a one more in Mid Suffolk

[YL]

Newcastle upon Tyne

Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2
Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election.

... in spite of some rather fanciful predictions before the election that all three seats might go yellow.

[You kip if you want to...]

Newcastle upon Tyne

Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2
Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election.

... in spite of some rather fanciful predictions before the election that all three seats might go yellow.

Well, Cleggmania and all that...

[Phony Moderate]

"I believe the way things are, is not the way things have to be."

[Leftbehind]

Defection from the Lib Dems.

fair enough, any chance of holding the seat, or will Labour gain it?

there aren't actually too many of them about are there? a couple in Aberdeenshire and a one more in Mid Suffolk

I actually think he might have a fair chance to hold on to it. Lib Dems aren't standing any candidates in the ward, despite them winning it in 2003 & 2007 at roughly a 2:1 vote over Labour. Ideal conditions for him to win, considering how lacklustre the Greens are here in the N/E.

Are you speaking specifically about Lib Dem > Green defections, or Green councillors total? Not sure about the former, but you can see the latter here.

[Leftbehind]

Yougov have just published their March aggregated VI figures, with a sample of over 50k, so it should be safer than usual to use their cross-breaks to measure the varying regional swings with respect to the upcoming locals:

[You kip if you want to...]

Yougov have just published their March aggregated VI figures, with a sample of over 50k, so it should be safer than usual to use their cross-breaks to measure the varying regional swings with respect to the upcoming locals:

What's with the relatively crap Labour showing in London?