Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[ElectionsGuy]

Do we expect any immediate projections tonight?

Florida for Clinton and Trump (at 8 EST, an hour after most of the state closes), North Carolina for Clinton.

[ElectionsGuy]

Do we expect any immediate projections tonight?

Florida for Clinton and Trump (at 8 EST, an hour after most of the state closes), North Carolina for Clinton.

I doubt they would be doing calls of FL before the Panhandle is done.

Most of the state closes at 7, the panhandle closes at 8, which is why I said they would (most likely) call it at 8.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow

That is exactly why a Trump nomination is such a disaster.

[ElectionsGuy]

Guys lets freaking wait to see the results. We've made this mistake before of saying 'Oh, this candidate will definitely win this state' based on early exits only to be completely wrong.

[ElectionsGuy]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

late deciders have been very anti-Trump in every state, though.

[ElectionsGuy]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

late deciders have been very anti-Trump in every state, though.

54-28 is by far the largest margin we have seen. By far. It usually was around a twelve point deficit for trump among late deciders. This is more than double tha.t

By margin, it is, but in the past if I remember correctly Trump usually gets around 25-30% of the late deciders and its divided among the rest of the field with Cruz and Rubio both getting more than him (when Rubio was viable). It makes sense most of that would go to Kasich in Ohio, but yeah most likely he'll win anyway. I wonder what the 'decided more than a month ago' (or something like that) demographic looks like.

[ElectionsGuy]

How is 'working class' defined, and how much of the electorate is it?

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina is completely done:

Trump: 458,048 (40.2%)
Cruz: 418,572 (36.8%)
Kasich: 144,272 (12.7%)
Rubio: 87,845 (7.7%)

[ElectionsGuy]

The Former Confederacy, Republican Primaries 2016

Trump: 4,545,923 (37.2%)
Cruz: 3,482,632 (28.5%)
Rubio: 2,532,632 (20.7%)
Kasich: 802,633 (6.6%)
Others: 844,564 (6.9%)