Does Palin have a chance in any of these places?

[Old Man Willow]

I tried to make this one as serious as possible, since Obama will have 250 evs locked up against Palin with his approval anywhere over 40%.

[Aizen]

Palin has no chance in any of those places.

[exopolitician]

No. I personally don't think she'll run in 2012....and if she does she won't get far.

[tmthforu94]

The only state I would probably rule out is New Mexico. All other states are very winnable. It will all just come down to how Obama's first term is.

[Old Man Willow]

I meant to add Nevada to that list.

[You kip if you want to...]

No, Obama would easily carry all of them... against Palin anyway.

[Frodo]

Montana maybe.  Perhaps even Missouri.  And that's only in the most optimistic of scenarios for her.   

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Palin+ Arizona+ Missouri+ Iowa+ Colorado+ New Mexico+ Montana+ Virginia+ Florida+ Ohio+    Pennsylvania= not gonna happen. Not in one of them.

[GLPman]

My favorite is the two people that voted for Pennsylvania.

[CJK]

It's too early to tell. Right now, I don't think she would win any of those places unless she can "decontaminate" her image over the next few years.

[pbrower2a]

I picked Missouri and Montana because Obama has yet to show that he can win them, but somehow I think Obama picks them up in 2012. Arizona would have gone for Obama had anyone other than John McCain, and I think that many Arizona voters who voted for McCain aren't going to forgive Palin. I'd have picked Indiana as a possibility because it was really close and looked like a fluke. 

[Vepres]

Obviously much of this depends on how well Obama performs in the eyes of the voters. However, I am assuming that going into election night they will be tied nationally (I'm not saying this is definite or even likely, however, it helps to make that assumption for this topic).  Honestly, I think she could win all of these in a tied race IF she rehabilitates her public image somewhat. I highly doubt she would win all of them in a 51-49 election, but she could pick off/hold on to some. Montana, Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio stand out to me. She could win Colorado, Arizona, and Virginia as well, albeit by very thin margins. New Mexico is stretch, though I can see her winning it.

[TeePee4Prez]

Palin has no chance in any of those places.

[The Duke]

In all probability, any Republican nominee will ned up being favored in all of those places.

Buy gold.  Sell dollars.

[Magic 8-Ball]

Missouri and Montana, and the former isn't likely.

[Daniel Z]

If Obama has a 50% approval

Palin probably carries: Montana

Has a chance: Missouri, Arizona, Ohio, Florida

In the rest Obama will need to have fairly low ratings.

[pbrower2a]

My favorite is the two people that voted for Pennsylvania.

Likely the sorts who believe that the "real" Pennsylvania does not include Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Erie, Harrisburg, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre.We could be seeing a polarization between people who live in or near big cities and those who see big cities as modern equivalents of Sodom and Gomorrah. 

[Zarn]

Least likely to most:

Florida, Ohio, Missouri

[Vepres]

My favorite is the two people that voted for Pennsylvania.

Likely the sorts who believe that the "real" Pennsylvania does not include Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Erie, Harrisburg, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre.We could be seeing a polarization between people who live in or near big cities and those who see big cities as modern equivalents of Sodom and Gomorrah. 

Not really. I voted for Pennsylvania, and I don't believe that there's a "real" and "fake" Pennsylvania, just Pennsylvania. Keep in mind that the state was only +3 more Democratic than the national average. If, going into election night, the race is 50-50 nationally, she has a shot there.

[Old Man Willow]

If Obama has a 50% approval

Palin probably carries: Montana

Has a chance: Missouri, Arizona, Ohio, Florida

In the rest Obama will need to have fairly low ratings.

I serious doubt she could carry MT with Obama at 50%

[Daniel Z]

If Obama has a 50% approval

Palin probably carries: Montana

Has a chance: Missouri, Arizona, Ohio, Florida

In the rest Obama will need to have fairly low ratings.

I serious doubt she could carry MT with Obama at 50%

Why? Montana is not a Democratic state. If it wasn't for Perot Montana would have voted Republican every year since 1964. Plus 4 years of Obama growing the government is not going to win him many fans in Montana.

[HAnnA MArin County]

First of all, I think we can all HOPE and PRAY that Sarah Palin does NOT become the GOP nominee in 2012. If she does, God help us all. Assuming the worst case scenario and she DOES become the nominee, she would obviously have a chance at winning the McCain states - Arizona, Missouri, Montana - simply for the fact that Obama hasn't won them yet, so she would have a leg up in these states (no pun intended). Ohio and Florida would be a stretch for her, but assuming that the REAL Ohio and the REAL Florida comes out to vote in massive numbers like they did in 2004 for George W. Bush because of the Bible issues, she could (in a good year) make these states at least in the single digits, but it's still a long shot. She's already transformed herself into a very polarizing figure. I think I even saw a poll the other day that said that Republicans would vote for Obama over her, if that's any indication. Her approval ratings in Alaska have dropped from 85% to 54% according to the latest poll I saw. She has little appeal, onto the base of the party: the Religious Right/Christian Taliban. She would turn off so many independents and moderates in several of these key swing states (PA, FL, OH) at the same time firing up the liberal base of the Democratic Party to come out in full force against her. You may very well have people like me, die-hard Hillary supporters, who will do everything in our power to stop her from shattering that "highest, hardest glass ceiling" that Hillary worked so hard for even if it means swallowing our gumption and actively campaigning for Obama. If that's what it takes to stop her, by golly I will do it.

I digress. Ultimately it just depends on who she would pick as her running mate, Obama's popularity/approval numbers, how the economy recovers, and if Tina Fey returns to Saturday Night Live to take her down again we can only hope.

[Zarn]

22 of 24 people picked Montana. Why would Montana vote for Palin?